Hi Uptrend !
Everything above looks great. Glad I only pulled thecovers up half way. Tomorrow will hold great promise ! Good Luck !
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- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
Hi Uptrend ! Everything above looks great. Glad I only pulled the
covers up half way. Tomorrow will hold great promise ! Good Luck !SEC won't seek to suspend mark to market
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is not planning to suspend the controversial mark-to-market accounting rule that has forced banks to report billions of dollars in asset write-downs, a source familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv...5294BJ20090310
coolhand
Well-known member
It would not surprise me to see a down day tomorrow, but the SS system is suppose to give a durable buy for the Intermediate Term. Any decline tomorrow (assuming we do not have a "significant" retrace) will not deter me from entering a full stox position. This is the first buy signal this system has given this year.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The market turned mixed today, but that is to be expected after the big advance yesterday. Consolidation. It appears an intermediate uptrend is underway, after turning just before an important fibonacci support. For now, I just plan to hold my position. A theory is that the market will rally in the without earning news, and since the first quarter does not get underway until the second week of Arpil, the marekt could advance for the next 17 trading days ending about April 3. Initially we need to have some fairly bearish sentiment, which still seems to be all over the MB and news services. Gov bank progress reports would also help, as well as an announcement from the SEC that the uptick rule has been re-applied. Elliot wave theory supports a fairly sizeable rally, as this should be a wave 1 advance.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Uptrend - you spell things out very well and that is much appreciated.
Hopefully you'll be above me before this RALLY is over. I'd like to see a lot of others join you.
All the more we as a group can BEAT THE BEAR.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
I've got to head over to the hospital - so unfortunately I've had to skip over tons of other posts.:embarrest:
Uptrend - if I was to give out awards - you would get the Grand Prize
You called this with pin point accuracy
Make it clear - this is the real thing and HOLD ON
Excellent Job - and a brilliant display of the 'real you'
Uptrend
Well-known member
Thanks Steady! I did see this one coming. I need to learn to be a little more patient with the downtrends, and wait for the big reversals such as this one. I was trying to play the last little uptrend wave from about spx 680 and thought it would go to 740, but got burned in the downdraft when it quickly faded. So, live and learn. I wish I had two more trades, because I think next week the market will move sideways and down a little bit, before another run up. The market will need to hold above spx 741 and then 717 or I will exit. I will study the technicals this weekend, and look for clues about possible exit points, like corepuncher was showing the other day. Perhaps we have had some euphoria, now to be followed by indecision, and then so more dollar cost averaging buying by institutions for long term holds. Putting a toe in the water.
Hope you are well steady and wish you the best!
Uptrend
Well-known member
Last week was a great week for advances. Can it continue? Lets look at a chart:
View attachment 6045
This is the Nasdaq summation index. What is the si you ask? "The McClellan Summation Index is a popular market breadth indicator that is ultimately derived from the number of advancing and declining stocks in a given market. It is derived from the McClellan Oscillator by tracking its daily accumulation or "summation". This provides a longer-term view of the McClellan concept. Many people regard it as an excellent indicator of the overall "health" of the market and the market's current trend. It was developed by Sherman and Marian McClellan and first presented in their book, Patterns for Profit"
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku....tors:introduction_to_mark#mcclellan_summation_
We can see the market has turned the corner and is 2 days in the green. This basically means that buying pressure is occurring across Nasdaq stocks where advances are > than declines. You can see that this summation takes several strong buying days to start to shift upward, and as such has a slight lag. However, you can see that the rally in December are shown in many of the uprising green bars, and well as early February. Converesely late Februray was a steep decline where we see red bars. Important market bottoms are at or below 1000. You can see this rally started at -1100 and the December 08 rally at -1600. The SS are more precise, but one can get a good sense for TSP of when to trade by watching the $nysi and $nasi charts.
Now we see we have buying pressure. How far can we go? My thoughts - see chart:
View attachment 6046
The market is now back within the spx downtrending trading channel and is sitting on the 20 ema for support. The upper trading channel boundary is around 810. This is also near the upper bollinger band, and not far above the 50 ema. There is also chart resistance in this area. So the 800 - 820 area is the "knock your head against the wall" zone. If by some miricle the market can clear this area, it will probably go the the 200 ema. I will probably initially sell in this area to be safe. We'll see how it goes.
Corepuncher
Well-known member
if we hit 800, I'm all out.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Not a bad plan. Selling initially around 800-820 may be the way to go in case of failure, due to resistance. If the rally goes longer, then buy back in if you have any IFT's left unless it is April by then.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Yeah Well said. That was the point I was trying to make.
KevinD
Well-known member
Uptrend
Well-known member
Thanks Diesel
Looks like the White house is steping up this week. Last time Treasury Secretary Geithner talked in February the market lost 4.9% in one day. Lets hope that his banks toxic asset clean-up plan has more details.
"More information about the public-private investment plan will be made available in the next week, a Treasury official told reporters yesterday, speaking on condition of anonymity. The Treasury will roll out enough information for investors to gauge their interest in the new program, along with an operational timeframe, the official said." Sounds like a trial balloon. A sneek preview of what?
"In the interview, Geithner said the Treasury already is well on its way to starting “a dramatic lending program to help securities markets get flowing again.” He said regulators will ensure banks have a “backstop of capital” to make sure they can “do what’s necessary” to restore lending." Are these the code words for the US dollar index taking a free-fall?
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRbv2vbl70Wg&refer=home
This administration announcement this coming week looks more promising, that the marekt might like. "The broad package of measures to be announced Monday includes $730 million from the stimulus plan that will immediately reduce small-business lending fees and increase the government guarantee on some Small Business Administration loans to 90 percent. The government also will take aggressive steps to boost bank liquidity with more than $10 billion aimed at unfreezing the secondary credit market, according to officials briefed on the plan who demanded anonymity to avoid pre-empting the president's announcement." What is all this secret talk? A gag order so the plunge protection team can implement plans like feel good statements from the white house?
So, I am thinking for this week, mix options X with Obama and Geithner statements and what do you get? - a falling dollar and a knee-jerk market. I am still convinced however that the ride will be generally up in the short term.
For non-TSP investing I am looking at DXO, DRYS and AINV. Closed out a position on DAL on 3/13 at 6.06, that was entereed a few days earlier at 3.94. I am expecting a little pullback then may re-enter. IMHO it is too early to buy FAZ even though it looks attractive - need to see what Obama says and how the financial district reacts. At this point, I have no clue, and do not choose to gamble.
coolhand
Well-known member
I agree with your assessment Uptrend. Think we may see some weakness short term, but further out we should see higher prices.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Uptrend
Well-known member
For TSP, I have come a long way from the dark side, over -13% and now am in positive territory. Even though I think the rally may continue and no sell signal has been given, there needs to be a 0.382 Fib retracement soon, and I calculate to about spx. 734. I am hoping tomorrow trades flat, and will try to mostly bail. Not because I don't believe the rally will continue. I am thinking a cooling off period needs to happen, so say 5 days trend down and another 5 days to get back to where we are today and that puts us into April. I am out of trades, so will probably G-a-tise and wait for an April entry point, or evaluate by then.
On the side I have made 56% in the past week trading DAL and DXO. Bear markets are winners for traders. Wish I could go full-time.
Slow and steady, I am coming for you corepuncher!
Uptrend
Well-known member
The last 7 day run has been great, but now IMHO the brakes will be applied. I was out at the close today, with a 15+% run. Of course the race is not over till the end of the year.
Bear markets have fierce rallies, and sharp drops. Be prepared. At spx 800 ish there is all kinds of resistance, so the risk/reward is not worth it. Will now patiently wait.
Of concern, is that US unemployment continues to rise, the bank crisis is not solved to my satisfaction, and Europe and Eastern europe are on the edge of collaspe. This may defend the US dollar strength, but for their weak GDP, I would not play the I fund anytime soon.
As far as technicals on the charts: 1) markets do not normally go straight up for more than 7 trading days is a row, and this is day 7, 2) If this is a ABC correction type EWT against the downtrend, wave A should be about done. Wave B should retrace 38.2 -50% of the distance between spx 666 and where this advance ends, 3) All kinds of resistance ahead on the charts, and 4) the VIX is coming to the apex of a wedge and will break-out on or before May 9. I am guessing down. Be prepared.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
I'm thrilled for ya Uptrend !!
Really hope the last 30 minutes SOAR
Up from the Grave - you arose...
I've considered you one of the strongest from day one - regardless of where you were on the AT.
SO THIS IS THE MOST PERFECT CONFIRMATION
You timed it PERFECT - from start to end.
EXCELLENT JOB my friend.
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