Uptrend's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

For TSP decisions, the market seems untradeable at this time. one day up, one day down type of thing, within a tight trading wedge. Since spx is below 848, we are in an area of market weakness. Yesterday's market recovery from spx 804 was all short covering, based on a rumor of mortgage news.

Next week is options x. I expect wild swings and possible a low forming on Wednesday +1 or -1. I expect a temporary stop at spx 804, then 789, then the 750 area. May be shifted to Thursday, because of Presidents's Day. This is based on hurst cycles and MO observationxs. This might also conincide with the stimulus passing, and all details being revealed, some of which may be greeted with distain. It don't matter what the reason, IMO the dumb $ will be bullish, based on the perceived stimulus effect, while the smart $ will be wary.

Uptrend - You got it man.

Put the emotions aside and stick with the facts....

Given ONE opportunity PER MONTH .... I totally agree with you: This has to be a game of patience... and letting things work for us... and not going in and simply hoping it works out.


I'm pretty sure I already rated your thread before but if not

YOU JUST GOT 5 STARS

 

[Uptrend]

Nice party in Rome. Bet the food is good. G7 doesn't have a clue! "“The stabilization of the global economy and financial markets remains our highest priority.” Excuse me but, What are the details??

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTKC4gmSOdIc&refer=home

Obama, what are the details of US financial rescue plan? Will the US take over failing banks and kick the overpaid CEO's out on their xxx? What is the strength test, and how will it work?

It seems the passage of the stimulus bill will slow the bleeding a little, but certianly not stop it. More taxpayer $ disappearing. More red ink.

 

[Uptrend]

Read this: Double Top: This pattern describes the rise of a stock, a drop, another rise to the same level as the original rise, and finally another drop. The double top looks like the letter 'M'. The twice touched high is considered a resistance level.

Now lets look at some charts:
View attachment 5731

View attachment 5734

View attachment 5735


Here is the DOW It has closed below 8000 4 days in a row. Friday candlestick has a negative bias. The market is below all major moving averages, so can free-fall. And the market is coming off a double top. The M. This is a reliable bearish pattern. We see the same thing on the spx and efa. Conclusion: Beware of the bear!

 

[Uptrend]

"Fibonacci ratios suggest a low between SPX 680 and 725 to conclude Primary wave A. There are two long term OEW pivots in this area, SPX 696 and 717. Either one would satisfy the alternate count wave structure. With the market in a confirmed downtrend, and trading under the important 848 pivot, we expect these levels to occur within the next several weeks. After that, all the markets and indices should be prepared to synchronize and trend higher in a Primary wave B rally."

http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/blog/

 

[Uptrend]

An alternate more nuetral to slightly bullish view from Ira Epstein. Based on swinglines. And stochastics are getting oversold. However, the market is very hard to read. I still have a negative bias, but the tech sector has been trying to push up. See my other posts today

http://www.youtube.com/IraEpsteinFutures

 

[Corepuncher]

An alternate more nuetral to slightly bullish view from Ira Epstein. Based on swinglines. And stochastics are getting oversold. However, the market is very hard to read. I still have a negative bias, but the tech sector has been trying to push up. See my other posts today

http://www.youtube.com/IraEpsteinFutures

I think your previous posts trump Mr. Epsteins's bullish stance. I'll go with long term chart patterns over those short term "stochastics" and such any day.

 

[Handballer]

My sentiments too, patience is the word for this month...

Patience won't do me any good. I'm 100% G now. I have exhausted all my IFTs for February. If I continue placing my IFTs like I have for the last several months, I'll still to be a loser.

 

[Uptrend]

Hey I hear you handballer. IFTs are like golden coins. Hang on to them and spend sparingly.

Here is another look at the spx channel. This may not be drawn super accurately, but you get the picture of the dipping channel. The bollinger band is the only support on the way down. There can be a dramatic step outside of it for up to 5 trading days. Its the universe of statistics. Noitice the right leg of an M pattern can be almost twice the height of the left leg. Surprise drop. Ouch!

View attachment 5774

 

[Uptrend]

Unseen forces operate in the universe. We have cycles of day and night. We also have stock market cycles. Well, based on aerospace engineer Hurst cycles, we are nearing an 80 week, and 13 week since the November, 2008 low. When some of his various length cycles line up, the effect is more powerfull.

http://forums.technicalwatch.com/tool/post/fib_1618/vpost?id=3254244

 

[Birchtree]

From the above posted link. "The bulls will have their best chance in months immediately after this 80 wk low.
The 9 yr cycle will be heading down
The 4.5 yr cycle up
The 80 wk cycle up
The 40 wk cycle up
The 20 wk cycle up
The 10, 5, 2.5, 6-7 day cycles all up"

 

[Uptrend]

My friends on the MB The fire is burning, and it isn't out yet. Wail till the smoke clears. Todays drop is bad, and now there is little under it till spx 740 area. Notice the wedge break and where the two spx 740 lines meet. Tomorrows futures are down, as expected, 766 so far.

View attachment 5816

Lets look at the November 2008 wedge break. Notice the diagonal line (between the alternating high and low), and how the extent of drop could be predicted. Live and learn. I am thinking that Thursday, may be the entry point, but will see how things develop tomorrow. What concerns me is that in the previous November 2008 drop, it took 8 trading days, and slid along the bollinger band for 6 of them. A similar scenario, would take the market much lower than 740. However, that doesn't square with the diagonal support line, so I don't think that will happen. Holding G, but thinking about a IFT.

View attachment 5817

 

[airlift]

Uptrend,
Do consider and take into account previous analyses by Corepuncher that show a high probability of occurences when the lower Bollinger Band is pierced to the downside (as today), and then there is a bounce with further drops to the downside.

 

[hessian]

Uptrend,
I believe that a recent analysis discussed such a wedge, and as I recall, you look at the start points of the wedge - the distance between them is the projected distance from the current point.
Forgive my rudimentary attempt to illustrate with the Blue Brush-lines.
I feel it seems terribly far down - so ask, please can other, more learned chartists confirm - this analysis as correct/valid...:worried:

View attachment 5819

 

[hessian]

Hey Uptrend,
I think I missed what you were trying to show - the cross (x) of the lines
Here's what I thought you were pointing at, but I think yours is better:
The descending triangle, a bearish formation that usually forms during a downtrend as a continuation pattern. View attachment 5820
7. Target: Once the breakout has occurred, the price projection is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern and subtracting it from the resistance breakout. [more]
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:descending_triangle_

But again, your cross seems better, and more reasonable for a projection.
VR

 

[alevin]

Unseen forces operate in the universe. We have cycles of day and night. We also have stock market cycles. Well, based on aerospace engineer Hurst cycles, we are nearing an 80 week, and 13 week since the November, 2008 low. When some of his various length cycles line up, the effect is more powerfull.

http://forums.technicalwatch.com/tool/post/fib_1618/vpost?id=3254244

You get a gold star for this one, Uptrend. First I heard of Hurst cycles. Thanks!

 

[Steadygain]

Uptrend,
I believe that a recent analysis
View attachment 5819

I should be -30% by the end of the week

 

[Uptrend]

Hessian: In a decending triangle, we look for a series of lower highs (the upper line). Then we look for a key support line (the lower line) The question becomes, how do we choose the support line? It certianly is not the lowest low; ie 741. Rather it should be more in the 825 range, as I have shown, where much of the recent market activity has been. On my chart, if you take the distance between the recent high at 944 -825 = 119, and the break below 825 -119 = a market target of 706. I will agree that this level, or somewhere near it is a market possibility.

View attachment 5823

 

[Birchtree]

I'm glad I live in a brick house - with all these bears around that are huffing and puffing.

 

[dannyboy]

Hessian: In a decending triangle, we look for a series of lower highs (the upper line). Then we look for a key support line (the lower line) The question becomes, how do we choose the support line? It certianly is not the lowest low; ie 741. Rather it should be more in the 825 range, as I have shown, where much of the recent market activity has been. On my chart, if you take the distance between the recent high at 944 -825 = 119, and the break below 825 -119 = a market target of 706. I will agree that this level, or somewhere near it is a market possibility.

View attachment 5823

A lot of pretty stable and reliable sources have pretty much fore-told that 2009 is going to be rough. I just accept that and hope for the future of the United States to pull out of this crisis. I'll keep my holster at the ready and I'll stay at G,F,C,S,I at 50,41,3,3,3% resp. I'm not going to make alot or lose a lot either. Ever since Oct. '97, I'd make a couple $k's, then lose 2x or 3x that the next day or week. I'm only down a few $100 instead of a couple $k's for the last 2 months. I'm just hoping for a spring thaw in the markets soon, so that I can get a good return with my 2 IFT's and I haven't seen it yet, so I'm just sitting on them like a mother hen with her eggs. I believe that there is no one chart, equation, graph or article that is going to give you a pretty clear idea of what's coming up and or when in this crazy market of today. Pretty clear idea means worth betting or putting your money (future) on. :suspicious:

 

[Uptrend]

Went 100% I today. USD due to fall and I is oversold. Looking for a bounce into next week, then a bounce coming in C and S. F is due to decline due to inflation that is becoming apparent.

I expect lower lows, but a bounce first. SPX is holding 789 at IFT time, which is a critical pivot level.