350zCommTech
Well-known member
I had the same thoughts, except for the inflation part.
The green markets in the I fund today also kept me from making a move.
Good luck.
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- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
I had the same thoughts, except for the inflation part.
The green markets in the I fund today also kept me from making a move.
Good luck.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Thanks 350commtech: I made a bold move into I and with Japan down tonight that is not helping. However, I still the USD is set to fall, and I see divergences on the american market charts. With op X week passing, I think the US market will pop. But first, based on Elliot wave theory, if spx 944 was wave C of ABC from 741, then we start a new 5 wave down, so wave 1 ends at 804, wave 2 ends at 878, and wave 3 (down) is underway. If wave 3 down is the same distance pricewise as wave 1 down then (an assumption), then wave 3 ends at 738. We know we have support there from the November lows. Heck the market is within reach, it could spike down and back in one trading day, or could turn earlier. I was counting on I turning 1-3 trading days before the US markets.
350zCommTech
Well-known member
View attachment 5844
Here's a chart of the USD. It fell yesterday then started to go back up in the afternoon. It's continuing up tonight. I have a target of 89, on the breakout of the triangle. Perhaps that's where the drop will come from, which means another down day in stocks tomorrow.
The sell off in Japan surprised me. The big fall in YEN yesterday, should have been supportive of the Nikkei.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Don't think the big dive everyone is looking for is coming tomorrow. Everyone knows unemployment is bad. Holding above spx 689, or getting back to this level within one day is critical.
Played the last rally wrong, and got swept, but putting my $$$ out for a gainer. Perhaps we run to 740 and then the gap window at 815. Get ready. IFT in today with my last round for the month.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
It's really good to see ya back Uptrend
Have been thinkn' about ya lately and wondered if you were out of the game.
You know your stuff man - and we all get burned - it's part of the game
Needless to say - I HOPE YOU COME OUT WITH HUGE GAINS
coolhand
Well-known member
Good chance we rally tomorrow, but I'm not liking anything longer term. Have you looked at the Seven Sentinels strategy I posted recently? Curious what you might think about it. I'm looking for a longer term buy confirmation from this system at the moment.
coolhand
Well-known member
Not for 2009. It was on sell mode most of 2008, then went to buy on Nov 25, and back to sell in early Jan.
It should be understood that this system is for conservative traders/investors, which as TSPers most of us should probably be while enduring this unreal bear market. :blink:
I'm not conservative, which has hurt me since October, but in a bull or sideways market I usually have gains vs. losses. Could be awhile before we see another long bull market. :worried:
I think I've finally adopted a conservative stance at this point.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Coolhand, which post on your thread has this information?
My impression of the market today is "holding pattern". I think a big move is probably in the works because the market is severly oversold and seems exhausted. Some stocks have bottomed, such as GE. The short camp is still on a bear raid, but those folks are in dangerous territory. Any spark and we rally. I base this on price, pattern and time, and elliot wave theory. This downwave should end any day, or by spx 647. It could end in a downdraft based on bad news and reverse all intra-day. When we rally, it could be a 50% retracement, before the market turns over. I think this is possible before the April earnings come out for Q1 2009. Or the market could simply move sideways until a spark arrives. If the Obama administration was smart they would immediately re-apply the uptick rule. That would slow down the big hedge fund raids, which I think is partly responsible for the markets big downdraft. The market is being held underwater. It should pop up soon.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Oh my GOSH -- WOW - This has put me on a super HIGH
Oh yeah - thanks man - hey it's cool I can handle it
Wow thanks Uptrend - this is by far the best post I've seen in ages
No offense to Birchtree - the ultimate BULL - who makes comments like these peroidically
coolhand
Well-known member
Much of what you said I agree with, but it's a tough call for us "less than nimble" folk.
Here's a link to the Seven Sentinels system:
http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=98276
Uptrend
Well-known member
I put my order (IFT in) for great TSP prices on March 5. Here they are:
C / 7.9353 and S / 9.1733 Wow! Wow! Wow!
Now read this:
By the end of this week the bear market will be entering its 18th month, and the loses are mounting. The SPX is down 58% from its October 2007 high, the NAZ down 56%, and the DOW/NDX have lost 54% of their value. Since 1932 there have been only two other times that the DOW had lost more than 40% during a bear market. The 1973-1974 Cyclical bear market (47%), and the 1937-1942 Cyclical bear market (53%). The current loss in the DOW has now exceeded both, suggesting that we are in a Supercyclical bear market. The last Supercycle bear market occurred between 1929-1932, and the DOW lost 89% of its value during that 34 month period. The rule of alternation, however, suggests that this Supercycle bear market should alternate in wave structure with its predecessor.
Support for the SPX remains at 644 and then 606, with resistance at 696 and then 717. Short term momentum was oversold at friday's lows (SPX 667) and moved to neutral at the close. We have been counting this last downtrend as a five wave structure: Minor wave 1 SPX 804, Minor wave 2 SPX 875, Minor wave 3 SPX 742, Minor wave 4 SPX 780, and Minor wave 5 underway. Since Minor wave 3 (133 points) was shorter than Minor wave 1 (140 points), Minor wave 5 can not exceed SPX 647 (133 points) and remain the fifth wave. Third waves can not be the shortest. Therefore if the SPX drops below 647 before this downtrend ends. Then the decline from SPX 875 is the third wave, and we will still need to await a fourth wave rally and another decline to end wave 5. Therefore the pivot at 644 and the SPX 647 level take on an even more significance. Lastly, the NDX still has a positive derivative divergence with the SPX/DOW. Also, positive momentum divergences remain on all timeframes. This type of technical setup usually precedes an important low.
http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/
So there is a high probability that the short-term downside cannot exceed spx 647.
Now look at the chart:
View attachment 5990
In the lower box (at the bottom) the spx is near the bottom of the longer term trading channel. You can see this down-slope glide path has developed over the last 18 months. You can also see that the upside potential is near spx 1000 and still stay in the bear market. As a matter of fact the spx 200 dma is 1014, the likely upside target.
Now the rest of the chart shows the Nasdaq bullish % index on a weekly basis. As you can see, although in a downtrend, it may be climbing since last October. Stockcharts uses about 1800 companies to form this index. This means the broad market may be gaining ground. This tells me the Nasdaq wants to rally.
If the market starts to rally off spx 647 that is almost 54% retracement to the likely 200 dma stop. If the market rallies off of Fridays close, that is a 48% retracement to the 200 dma.
Be a BullUptrend,
I have studied your charts and the wave theory you have explained. Frankly, I don't understand it all, but everything you have explained makes sense within the context of the theories. I know that there are many "ifs" involved but I look at all of this in conjunction with other theories and signals that others have posted in TSP talk and I sense a positive correlation that might well produce an oversold, bear market bounce as you have acknowledged. Let's hope you are right. Thanks.
Uptrend
Well-known member
This was posted on youtube one year ago, but I still think it is funny.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtcnXLDnXvs
Uptrend
Well-known member
Why hedge funds are hurting the market. It is all about redemptions.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksLySMWRwLs
Uptrend
Well-known member
Wind of a Big Lift Coming!
Another part to my "Be A Bull" series - see my post #632.
"According to Reuters, a U.S. House Financial Services subcommittee is expected to hold a hearing on mark-to-market accounting rules as soon as March 12. The SEC's chief accountant and the chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, will be asked to testify,the report said. If that meeting results in the government relaxing mark-to-market rules, Najarian thinks the stock market could explode.
He says, “if the government relaxes mark-to-market for 12 to 18 months you could see financials move 100% in a matter of hours.” And he goes on to say, “In fact, I hope you’ll replay the soundbite because if the government relaxes mark-to-market accounting a number of banks stocks will be unbelievable values at these levels.”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/29510966
Uptrend
Well-known member
Here is what I expect for the coming week:
1) Market to trade sideways (a little up, a little down) through the front part of the week. This is seen as indecision and likened to coiling the market spring for a big move.
2) If Gov suspends mark-to-market accounting rules for 12-18 months later this week or the following week, watch for a blast-off in the financials, and probably a big market lift. It would be within the range of possibility to gap up and close way up (6-10%+) in one day. From a contrarian viewpoint, all the news negativity supports this kind of move. Some of the big traders will be expecting this; but the rest of the market will be caught off-guard and very surprized.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The big move has started today! This is no time to run for cover. I see the Rep. Barney Frank says the uptick rule may be put back in place in the next month. This is good news. If the mark to market rules get changed soon, the rally will really get legs. Remember the downtrending bearish trading channel will allow a bear rally all the way to the 200 dma at about spx 1014 (See my post #632). Another massive short squeeze will put the market on the way.
The Seven Sentinals trading system should be showing a buy at the close today. I also watch the NY and NAS summation index, which should be going green today.Similar threads
