Uptrend's Account Talk

[DCguy]

Do you think this will coincide with the fed meeting next week? I was waiting for the big boys to setup a drop this week for a rate cut next week but I don't see the fed doing it with the market taking off as it is. I think no rate cut=market drop.

I think if they cut, the Dow will soar back to at least 13,200. If they dont cut, it will still go up to 13,200 eventually. The bull has taken over and it seems there's nothing that can stop the upward trend at the moment.

 

[Guest2]

I think if they cut, the Dow will soar back to at least 13,200. If they dont cut, it will still go up to 13,200 eventually. The bull has taken over and it seems there's nothing that can stop the upward trend at the moment.

I just heard that even with DVO's , financials are up from a "sell" to a "hold".
Now thats motivating too !

 

[Uptrend]

Am I feeling lucky today? Am I feeling bullish?

Some folks think that trusting your feeling is a sign of being weak. Some prefer to trust their instincts -are feelings involved in that? Look around the MB the last few days. I read all sorts of bullish talk; as if we are on the verge of a major breakout. I liken the markets to the TV show Deal or No Deal. Everyday the market makes an offer: Deal or No Deal. Many times folks go to far, go beyond a safety net with little infromation, hope, guts, feelings? A payoff is around the corner they say. Statistically however, the largest offer is normally about 2/3 -3/4 the way through the game and then offers start to decline.

My point: Trust your feelings, but also trust your reason (instincts). IMHO don't chase. If you are already in the market, you may want to ride the bull a little longer. However, the markets are overbought after a long volatile uptrend. Heck, we are still below the mother of all averages; the 200. That is like the major division between the bull and the bear. The market is still in bear country, and needs bullish sentiment to bring in more money from the sidelines, for the next big fall.

 

[sdouglas3]

Am I feeling lucky today? Am I feeling bullish?

Some folks think that trusting your feeling is a sign of being weak. Some prefer to trust their instincts -are feelings involved in that? Look around the MB the last few days. I read all sorts of bullish talk; as if we are on the verge of a major breakout. I liken the markets to the TV show Deal or No Deal. Everyday the market makes an offer: Deal or No Deal. Many times folks go to far, go beyond a safety net with little infromation, hope, guts, feelings? A payoff is around the corner they say. Statistically however, the largest offer is normally about 2/3 -3/4 the way through the game and then offers start to decline.

My point: Trust your feelings, but also trust your reason (instincts). IMHO don't chase. If you are already in the market, you may want to ride the bull a little longer. However, the markets are overbought after a long volatile uptrend. Heck, we are still below the mother of all averages; the 200. That is like the major division between the bull and the bear. The market is still in bear country, and needs bullish sentiment to bring in more money from the sidelines, for the next big fall.

Amen Brother! No chasing allowed. Otherwise you might get burned.

 

[JTH]

I hate being out of the market this week, but at least I know I'm not losing money. I took my profits last week because I didn't want to be a greedy little pig.

I expect others will be taking their profits today and Monday, so it's too late for me to catch the upside action.

 

[Uptrend]

I think guys make mistakes on Deal or No Deal because they are "star struck" by those gorgeous ladies. And the women must feel inferior, because they are not dressed with all that make-up like the hoties?

 

[Uptrend]

No, I know what must be the problem with the Deal or No Deals going south- never take advice from a family member!

 

[nasa1974]

Am I feeling lucky today? Am I feeling bullish?

Some folks think that trusting your feeling is a sign of being weak. Some prefer to trust their instincts -are feelings involved in that? Look around the MB the last few days. I read all sorts of bullish talk; as if we are on the verge of a major breakout. I liken the markets to the TV show Deal or No Deal. Everyday the market makes an offer: Deal or No Deal. Many times folks go to far, go beyond a safety net with little infromation, hope, guts, feelings? A payoff is around the corner they say. Statistically however, the largest offer is normally about 2/3 -3/4 the way through the game and then offers start to decline.

My point: Trust your feelings, but also trust your reason (instincts). IMHO don't chase. quote]

I agree.

I have been lucky the last couple of years. I was one of those government types that got into TSP when it was first offered. Looked at it as a supplement to my retirement (I am CSRS not FERS). Invested maybe 5-7% per pay and didn't do anything with it. Just left it in the G. And for 19 years it didn't do much, less than 100K. I had my eyes opened in 2004 (thought about retirementin a few years ) and started to move my money around from fund to fund. Really didn't educate myself just went by instinct and I got lucky for 04, 05, 06 and part of 07. I had doubled my money by then. I averaged about 17% per year. Shear luck! Mid 07 I started guessing wrong and took a pretty big hit. I was able to break even by the end of the year. Again, shear luck! Now I find this group and realize I need to be smarter. I wish I would have found this group sooner. Anyway I am rambling. Hope to follow your leads for awhile until I get more comfortable in the way of the Force .

So here is my question! Is this a good day to stay in the CSI or move into G today? My gut says stay one more day but I keep flahbacking to 07.

 

[Uptrend]

It is a tough call. I am thinking the market may bounce around the next few days, consolidate or move down to the 20 dma, and perhaps then make one more push sometime near the end of next week. I am not sure the Fed meeting and possible rate cut may do much because the expectations are already low. So low expectation and 0.25 or no cut - who cares! Don't think the market will react that much. The market must get more bulls on board before the new fall - consumer confidence drove market down today, but volume is light -tells me IMHO probably wait.

 

[nasa1974]

Well I decided to take the profit for today and jump to G. Oh! wait! I forgot my password and got locked out :laugh:. I hate Mondays!!!

 

[nasa1974]

It is interesting depending on whose account you read who is moving (safe) and who is staying (risk). I have been bouncing back and forth all morning and actually decided go with the gut and go safe. But really did forget my password (I am at home). So I am one of the risk takers today. The last time I decided to stretch it out one more day I lost 2K. Lets hope Monday is a good day.

 

[DCguy]

I expect C and S to have nice gain on Monday. I'm still in 100% stock.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The federal government, eager to boost the flagging economy, will start distributing special stimulus payments Monday - four days earlier than expected.
"Beginning Monday, the effects of the stimulus will begin to reach households," President Bush said Friday. "This money is going to help Americans offset the high prices we're seeing at the gas pump and at the grocery store."

 

[Silverbird]

I've been stuck all month in C & S..wish I could have moved to G once or twice at least..but I hate to admit it...profits hasn't been all that bad..

I think you are fine because you are already in CSI, and the overall trend has been up. If you were thinking about buying, it would be different.

 

[Uptrend]

Time to get out of the F fund as bond prices fall!

It is all about inflation out of control

http://moneyandmarkets.com/Issues.aspx?Bonds-finally-ready-to-crack-1702

Lets look at the charts:

View attachment 3802

For the 10 year treasury note we see a W pattern, where the market is moving up rapidly off the second and confirmation low. This is bullish and bad for bond prices, as they move in the opposite direction.

View attachment 3803

Looking at the 30 year US treasury bond price, we see a H&S pattern and then a breakdown with a confirmed close below (circled). This is bearish.

When the credit meltdown was happening, traders took their money and went and hid in bonds. This made prices go up. Because of the inflation they are not doing that, perhaps just holding the dollars as cash or investing elsewhere. IMHO, bond prices are on a falling trend, and will not stop until inflation moderates.

 

[Uptrend]

Wednesday, April 30 is looking like make or break day:

"On Wednesday, the market will deal with the first reading of first-quarter gross domestic production, which may show negative growth, along with the Fed's decision on interest rates. The market currently expects the central bank to cut its key rate by a quarter-percentage point and to signal a pause. Friday also will bring the all-important April jobs report.
"Next week will be a make-or-break week," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services. "Are we in a recession? Is the Fed going to be one- and done? Either way, it will give us a feel for where we're going in the short term."

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?column=Market+Snapshot

IMHO, if you play April 30 you might as well play earnings in individual stocks -as it should be risky. Numbers I have seen show the GDP coming in at 0.4% for Q1, but I have seen as high as 0.7%. If anything less, like 0% or a negative number, and we retrace down. I am looking at the 1363 SPX resistance hold point for possible buy in, but that is only if it holds. Friday May 2 could be a market mover day also with the jobs report, with nonfarm payrolls expected to be -80k and unemployment at 5.2%; both same as last month. There is also a chance we will go on up to the 200 dma if these numbers are good, so it will be an exciting week. I am on the sidelines, being locked out of electronic IFT's until May 1, so will be watching the show.

 

[Uptrend]

Not Buying it!!

I could put in for an IFT tomorrow, but have no plans. Looked at the F but see the 20 and 50 dma just above. A lot of resistance. The F is oversold but, inflation is still a concern. If the Fed does not cut and says no more cuts, the dollar will rally further. This might not please the market and it will drop. This combination will put F on a buy signal.

What probably will happen. The Fed will cut by 0.25%, but say in the statement that they are pausing. The market will rise up to around 1410 spx, but others will sell into it. By Thursday, May 1 or Friday when the jobs report comes out negative, the market will retrace down. The F will go up through the necktie of averages, and we have a buy signal. In that case, I may IFT to F on Thursday, May 1 or Friday May 2.

Elliot wave theory suggests to me that a downwave is coming. IMHO, sell into the little rally if if comes and go to G or F. I fund may be on a sell.

 

[RPM]

Not Buying it!!

What conditions would make you go back to stock? TIA

 

[Uptrend]

RPM:

The Markets retrace down to at least the 50 dma and hold. If you notice each successive upwave in the rally in the last 35 trading days or so has been on low or declining volume as well as tighteer and tighter daily trading ranges, except for several blast-off days. The last week has been nothing more than market indecision. Do you really think that GM losing 3.5 billion in the 1Q is good news? This trend is likly to continue to other automakers. Housing crisis is still developing and has not bottomed. Credit crisis has been manipulated by the Fed and has put the market into kind of a denial mode. The market had despair, but not capitulation IMHO. The last rally was on false hope. Besides Elliot wave theory suggests that a reversal is near.

 

[RPM]

RPM:

Housing crisis is still developing and has not bottomed. Credit crisis has been manipulated by the Fed and has put the market into kind of a denial mode. The market had despair, but not capitulation IMHO. The last rally was on false hope. Besides Elliot wave theory suggests that a reversal is near.

Thanks, I am just starting to see the housing effect in my area with short sales and decreasing prices. Up to now, this area has been pretty resilient... Although with GDP positive this quarter, maybe it's true that we won't see any recession after all. Inflation is a definite yes though. Will keep on following your clues. Thanks for all the analysis.

 

[luv2read]

do you REALLY believe those numbers? The GDP is not UP, it's just not as DOWN as they thought it would be. Numbers manipulated to coincide with the FED announcement today to please the market. If there was no FED meeting today, GDP would have been negative. Watch next time....

The half-finished house next door was just boarded up. This was the first house in a new subdivision. The entire property is being foreclosed.