Uptrend's Account Talk

[nasa1974]

Uptrend,

You and Buster are looking at the same problem. If you listen to the website that Poolman posts it also is saying the same thing. Sure looking scary for early June. GL to all next week.

 

[Uptrend]

New Chart analysis. The charts may be telling me something else short-term. I was looking at all the financial stocks downtrends yesterday, and IMHO they could breakdown further, or they could all bounce off a double bottom (W pattern). Even though we may be on the way down, we may go up first. Here is a theory - See the chart:

View attachment 3987

So today the market threw a pin through the 50 dma, but recovered a little into the close. That is the 2nd hit of the 50 dma (simple) and it held. Normally we need 4-5 hits to break down. Next this could be the start of an M pattern (bearish). I thought we already had it (look to the left and you can see a smaller M), and then a A bounce that is the "classic" bearish pattern, but now I am not so sure. I am watching the financials tomorrow. If they do not break down fruther, and if we stay above the 50 dma, I think we will go 5-7 trading days up to 1440 for a double M pattern top. Now that is bearish.

So watching to see if I can IFT in the AM.

Good luck ALL

 

[Buster]

I'm with you..Financials are prolly gonna seek a new low..so I think I will sit this week out...Patience grasshopper is the key this week.

 

[Uptrend]

Trade I am considering:

IFT today C & S combo

SPY
Price Objective: 143 -144 (edge of BB)

Trailing stops: 138 (50dma) 140 (20 dma) and 141.5 (200 dma)

$SPX
Price Objective: 1430 -1440 (edge or above edge of BB)

Trailing Stops: 1382 (50 dma), 1400 (20 dma), and 1425 (200 dma)

Reasons: SPX is not breaking down. 50 dma support. Looks like a double top may form in the short term. US oil futures coming down today. Should drop further as US dollar rises. Benanke stance on no more rate cuts will give dollar support. Financials appear to be bottoming, except WB (breaking down something bad happening at that bank). Crowd was expecting a fall here - Will bet against the crowd. EWT shows we couild be starting wave three - an upwave.

Trade On!

 

[SteveTSP]

Uptrend,
Thanks for posting your next move and your criteria in advance of the move. I do agree with your plan but I was concerned about the up swing today and held off. However, that swing quickly changed today at 1330. Good luck with your move and thanks much for putting your info out there for others to digest and consider. I really enjoy reading about your thought process in planning your next transaction.
Steve

 

[fedgolfer]

lots of volatility... probably market manipulation, eh? I wonder if that selloff @ 1:30 and subsequent 2:30 rebound has to do w/ oil trading closing or big-boy maniupulation in advance of the ADP and other econ data?

 

[luv2read]

lots of volatility... probably market manipulation, eh? I wonder if that selloff @ 1:30 and subsequent 2:30 rebound has to do w/ oil trading closing or big-boy maniupulation in advance of the ADP and other econ data?

Oil and gold closing maybe?

I was also thinking daytraders and retailers buying the dip...not wanting to miss out on this weeks expected pop.

 

[Uptrend]

Todays spx chart

View attachment 4000

Well, the market is not showing its cards. The 50 dma was pierced again, and closed below, but confirmation is needed to determine the market direction. Could break either up or down. I still say up in the short term for the following reasons:

Oil trading down
USD trading up
Factory orders way up today Revised from -0.1% to 1.4%!
Trading channel from March low still intact
Seasonality says up
Close to 38% FIB retracement off March lows

A more pronounced double top should form on the charts before another downturn.

Correct from yesterday, EWT should be wave 5 up. Wave should be starting

It trade tyme!

 

[Uptrend]

Wht kind of physco babble is this?

AP
Oil dips below $124 on concern over US economy

Since when was any news service or trader concerned about the US economy? No! Oil is losing steam as a hedge investment and the institutions are being forced to sell as the bubble starts to burst. For example, we see a pretty good money flow out of USO since about 12 May. The Q is - where is this $ going? Into OSM and stocks I suspect. Certianly not bonds - when every other day Bernanke is saying something about inflation.

I see signs that financials may be bottoming - retain the sneaking suspicion. GS, UBS (european bank which went down big), WM all up this AM When the double bottom gets "in" the market will take off on a run.

 

[Silverbird]

Wht kind of physco babble is this?

AP
Oil dips below $124 on concern over US economy

Since when was any news service or trader concerned about the US economy? No! Oil is losing steam as a hedge investment and the institutions are being forced to sell as the bubble starts to burst. For example, we see a pretty good money flow out of USO since about 12 May. The Q is - where is this $ going? Into OSM and stocks I suspect. Certianly not bonds - when every other day Bernanke is saying something about inflation.

I see signs that financials may be bottoming - retain the sneaking suspicion. GS, UBS (european bank which went down big), WM all up this AM When the double bottom gets "in" the market will take off on a run.

You're right, definate babble, he's saying he has no idea what's going to happen and sometime in the future there will be a double bottom for him to run up from.:toung:

 

[Uptrend]

I am still in the C/S trade (see post #447) even tough I would have been stopped out if the trailing stop was electronic day trading. I went ahead and stayed in even though the 50 dma was violated, but the spirit of the market did not want to fall much below, and off the precipice as Tom C put it in his blog.
prec·i·pice (prµs"…-p¹s) n. 1. An overhanging or extremely steep mass of rock, such as a crag or the face of a cliff. 2. The brink of a dangerous or disastrous situation: on the precipice of defeat. [French précipice, from Latin praecipitium, from praeceps, praecipit-, headlong. See PRECIPITATE.]


Always knew I liked rockclimbing. #2 described where the market was at yesterday. So, I am watching the XLF in addition to my stops to decide when to bail or move to I as it should be rebounding soon (Am watching the charts). However, as long as the XLF sector continues to inprove the market will improve. I see this as short term, (3 -7) more trading days) but my price objective of 1440 on spx still stands, because IMHO we could be setting up for a double top M pattern (previous 1438 top) and a new top that is slightly higher and then fall off the precipice. That is when the pitons pull out.

 

[RPM]

Thanks very much for all your analysis! Great call as always!

I am still in the C/S trade (see post #447) even tough I would have been stopped out if the trailing stop was electronic day trading. I went ahead and stayed in even though the 50 dma was violated, but the spirit of the market did not want to fall much below, and off the precipice as Tom C put it in his blog.
prec·i·pice (prµs"…-p¹s) n. 1. An overhanging or extremely steep mass of rock, such as a crag or the face of a cliff. 2. The brink of a dangerous or disastrous situation: on the precipice of defeat. [French précipice, from Latin praecipitium, from praeceps, praecipit-, headlong. See PRECIPITATE.]


Always knew I liked rockclimbing. #2 described where the market was at yesterday. So, I am watching the XLF in addition to my stops to decide when to bail or move to I as it should be rebounding soon (Am watching the charts). However, as long as the XLF sector continues to inprove the market will improve. I see this as short term, (3 -7) more trading days) but my price objective of 1440 on spx still stands, because IMHO we could be setting up for a double top M pattern (previous 1438 top) and a new top that is slightly higher and then fall off the precipice. That is when the pitons pull out.

 

[Uptrend]

Great Day! Up over 2% on the day! This trade started at my post #447. I see a new trade developing as shown below:

View attachment 4010

The EFA is lining up for a bust upward! You can see the cup and handle. A move up of about 75-70 = 5 -1.5 (today) =3.5 or 4-5% possible gain at a minimum. The last 3 candlesticks have formed a very reliable Bullish morning star. Read about this pattern here:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle

The SPY also formed this pattern today.

I will see what the jobs report does to USM tomorrow, but then may decide to use my 2nd IFT to I. I expect a pause day in the USM. I expect the dollar to drop a little after the recent run-up and that will be a plus to the I trade. Hate to use both trades at once, but hard to pas up the chart signature.

Happy Trading!

 

[Steadygain]

3.5 or 4-5% possible gain at a minimum.
Happy Trading!

Amen to that!! That's what I projected as the total Gain

Days like yesterday when you're on the side lines are disappointing

I expected a pullback today - but still anticapate more positive momentum pushing us forward next week.

 

[Steadygain]

Uptrend,
Don't let the downward momentum keep you away. I've always enjoyed your comments and hope to see them soon.

 

[Steadygain]

Uptread,
I need to bring your thread back towards the front, in case you wake up.

Saw the movie Ferris Buelier's Day Off - very cool - definately a guy flick. I LOVED IT !!

To me - and me alone - the movie revolves around John Lennon and the song Twist and Shout. This song came out when the Beatles were making themselves known and taking over the world. Listen to John's enthusiasm - his persona really comes out on that song - and the setting is perfert.

I have no idea what Luv2read, Lady, Malyla, Mamikin, Cornellia and the other special ladies in my life look like so when I see a movie like that I immediately think, "Hey there's__ and ___ - wow can they dance and don't they look great.

******************************************************

So came up with my own little flick...

Setting: I'm in "the Field" (which means battle field) on a Mission and you're my contact. The walkie talkies have a lot of static and you're almost asleep. You have more contacts that 10,000 connect the dot books put together and I mean very substantial contacts so nothing is beyond you.

So I'm way out in the middle of nowhere - all alone.

"Uptrend, WTF over ^^^ (that's static) need assistance ^^^

You don't respond

"UPTREND - WHAT THE **** ^^^ OV^^^^ NEED ASS^^^^^^^

Now you're fully alert and detect the urgency and I repeat

"UPTREND^^ GD^^^DO YOU HEAR^^^I NEED ASS^^^^^^^

A little while later a huge hellicopter lands and the Dallas Cowboy Cheerleaders come running out and the chopter takes off. We're all alone - way out in the middle of nowhere...:nuts:

OK - now reverse the roles - you're in my place

WELCOME BACK !!

 

[Uptrend]

Well Steadygain & All:

I am still around. Of course, I (like others) got blasted by the darkside. Kind of humbling. Anyway, I have been very busy this summer in another business of mine (one that really makes $$), and have let trading slip. But lately, I have been reading a Gary Smith book on "How I trade for a living", and Geez! - if I trade the way he suggests then I need to relearn everything. So, it scares me, but I am trying what he suggests - and so that is why I bought into the stock funds today. Let me see -- let's review what we know --buy weakness and sell strength, right?

XX Wrong XX

According to Gary, buy strength and sell weakness. Makes sense - because if you operate this way your gains might be smaller, but will would take fewer losses. Ok Now the problem is identifying strength. Then comes divergences, RSI, MACD, sentiment etc. Anyhow, I am not ready to throw out technical analysis right away - I believe it has it's place if used properly.

I booked 23% last year. That is a tough act to follow, but onward - lets see what happens!

 

[FogSailing]

Glad to see you back UT. You and your analytical skills are missed. I hope you're making moola with your bidness...wish i was..

FS

 

[Uptrend]

Thanks Fogsailing
You know what? That rally on Friday 08-08-08 was broad based. This price action was unusual and olympic style. No way do I think the market is healthy, but I do think this strength will hang around a few days to a few weeks. Strength begats strength. This buying was an extra-ordinary event. When is the last time you can think of when the DOW, S&P, Nasdaq, Russell 2000 were all participating and over 2%? There were no divergences in the main indices.

What we need to see on Monday and Tuesday is a continuation of buying. I don't care about fake-out type intraday reversals, but the market needs to be moving up or charging ahead by the close. I am betting the money flows into tech will be greater next week than the DOW and S&P. Also IMHO the US dollar is due for a little pause and consolidaton. These factors are why I played the S and I for the short term.

I am not sure options X will have much effect. Oil looks like it can still fall further, so cash inflows should continue for a few days. The transports were up 4% Friday. INHO this is significant, and may be foreshadowing of a bit of a market run-up.

 

[FogSailing]

UT, thanks for sharing your thoughts. You have me considering jumping back into S for a few days. Of course, if I jump today I won't be in until Tuesday so I think I'll wait until tomorrow morning to see how the action looks. But, all things considered, what you are suggesting makes penultimate sense. Steady, Birch, and CP have all been saying the same thing. That goes to show you how cautious I've become..This bear market has been a major bummer for most of us..I could sure use some positive UPTRENDing for a while..

FS