Uptrend's Account Talk

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Expect the market to roll over soon. F is staying above the 20 and 50 dma at 102.20 so far today on the AGG. Nice hammer candlesticks for the last few days.

IFT to F 100%
 
The high priest came down from the temple. The crowd was restless. The markets were trading sideways. The proclaimation was made. Isn't this ridicolous that one man has this kind of power!

Since last year the Fed Funds rate has been slashed from 5.25% to 2%.

Easy money.

Higher fuel and food prices. Market slowdown, less output.

Will the greenback now rally? - Perhaps short-term because the expectation is for no more rate cuts. The high priest had some mumbo jumbo about a "pause".

So a stronger dollar means:

I fund taking a hit

Bond prices might rally - :) for F Fund

Also, IMO expect the overbought market to take a break and retrace to 20 or 50 dma. I am not super convinced that we are ready for another huge fall just yet. Not enough bullishness.

For a history lesson I have carefully reviewed the 2000-2003 bear market and observed the downtrend psychology. A double bottom was put in March-April during the 2001, but a huge crash came later in September of the same year. So the possible lesson is - things take time to develop - don't get impatient,thinking the Bear might go away anytime soon! Also, in bear markets, when any uptrend comes along, if the indices do not stay above the 20 and 50 dma, watch out below!
 
The market has been resilient, but the ingredients for a bull market are not there," said Jean-Francois Virolle, chief strategist at Global Equities, in Paris.

"I don't think the global credit crisis is really over. Banks have been rallying from their lows, but the question is: are they really in a recovery mode? I would not be surprised to see another spike in the crisis."

UBS sank 5.4 percent. The bank said it will slash 5,500 jobs or almost 7 percent of its workforce, and has a preliminary deal with U.S. asset manager BlackRock Inc to sell a $15 billion portfolio of subprime mortgages. It also reported a sharp slowdown in new money entrusted to it by wealthy clients.
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Yes I agree. The market has risen on false hope, denial and outright foolishness. We know this because of the increasing down volume and light up volume. But if one trades in the direction of the movement, the balance sheet wins. Now however, it is coming increasingly clear that May 2 was probably the turn date of the recent upwave, that I believe was the C of the ABC correctional wave off the January lows. If the market can hold the S&P 1383 area, there is still a chance the market could rally back to the 200 dma at about 1435. If the market can't hold there, it appears the recent upwave may be done.

The excitement of the main earnings reports are out of the way, so the market now has "reality" to think about. Reality portends a negative bias. Check this yourself -when you are excited about something do you remember all the facts, figures and details? Another theory may be replacement - one replaces the truth by keeping busy looking at reports that seem to support the bullish viewpoint, but miss the underlying problems.

Holding F until the market can prove itself.
 
LOL, all,
I think the saying is "stupid is as stupid does" from the 1994 film about a mentally challenged man's epic journey through life..."

- basically meaning: "passing historical figures and incidents largely unaware of their significance."
http://en.wikiquote.org/wiki/Forrest_Gump

Maybe also appropriate (intermediate term): "Life is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get." :nuts:
 
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BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Legg Mason Inc. posted its first quarterly loss as a public company in what its chief executive said was among the toughest periods it has ever seen, as the investment manager also announced plans to raise $1 billion through an equity offering.
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"A bear market rally usually lasts 35 days and (rises) an average of 12 to 13 percent, that is exactly what we've seen on the S&P so this would be it," said Philippe Gijsels, a senior equities strategist at Fortis Bank in Brussels.

"If this is a bear market rally, it should stop around now." (Reporting by Amanda Cooper)
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OK Birch, let's see where it goes from here. Hoping for better! :)
 
Birchtree said:
I always say foolish is as foolish does, don't be fooled by the fools.
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Are you actually calling someone a fool? Sounds like a gratuitous assertion to me. Anyone can pull quotes out of there @@@ to support their points of view. This proves nothing which can be gratuitously dismissed.

Gratuitous assertions -
"Synonyms 2. unnecessary, superfluous, redundant; causeless, unreasonable, groundless, unprovoked, unjustified."

It really is amazing how much common sense is ignored when looking at the big picture. Now you can call that a gratuitous argument but that's what opinions are. Facts are facts - note the difference.

P.S. Birchtree take a seminar or read a book on epistemology.

Cayman :rolleyes:
 
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Cayman12

My dear fellow, no one is calling anyone a fool - although there are always some about. I'm actually more familiar with episiotomy due to experience working in surgery. But thanx for the suggestion regarding epistemology.
 
Now after today anyone that was thinking about getting into stocks will freeze and remain on the fence. You must be aware and understand the fact that we are going to see frightening retracements the higher up we go. Bull markets do not like company and the higher we go the stiffer the pullbacks will be to make sure that not everyone is participating as we continue to move higher and higher. No one ever said making money was easy unless you buy and hold.
 
Weekend update:

Due to the 2 IFT TSP policy and me being very busy this summer, I will only be posting once a week unless there is a market mover that requires discussion.

My technical analysis suggests that we are retracing down in the stock funds. I expect the retracement to continue for another 5-15 trading days. I think we will break below 1383 on the spx and continue down to the 1344 area near 50 dma support. I am not convinced the market will break below that level and may be looking for an entry point, but we shall see.

Because the unemployment has really not increased above 400,000 jobless claims weekly and actually moved down last month, I am looking for a strong June rally. The XLF led us down, and am expecting to lead us up. Right now the XLF is sitting on the 50 dma.

Bonds still look good, and are ready for a short term rally. The AGG is now sitting on the 50 dma and the 20 dma is moving up under it. Just the situation for a little run.

Holding F
 
My thinking exactly..This week I have a feeling oil will plunge and stocks will have a small rally..maybe one or two days..but when is the question..so I'm holding 100% F too and I'll buy back in at the bottom when stocks hit the 50dma and then start their climb in June.
Good luck..


Uptrend said:
Weekend update:

Due to the 2 IFT TSP policy and me being very busy this summer, I will only be posting once a week unless there is a market mover that requires discussion.

My technical analysis suggests that we are retracing down in the stock funds. I expect the retracement to continue for another 5-15 trading days. I think we will break below 1383 on the spx and continue down to the 1344 area near 50 dma support. I am not convinced the market will break below that level and may be looking for an entry point, but we shall see.

Because the unemployment has really not increased above 400,000 jobless claims weekly and actually moved down last month, I am looking for a strong June rally. The XLF led us down, and am expecting to lead us up. Right now the XLF is sitting on the 50 dma.

Bonds still look good, and are ready for a short term rally. The AGG is now sitting on the 50 dma and the 20 dma is moving up under it. Just the situation for a little run.

Holding F
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So far the simple 50 dma is holding up on the $SPX and SPY, so it is time to trade. We willl possibly have a bounce back up to the 20 dma. IMHO, the retracement down this AM is a fake, as long as the 50 dma holds.

Has anyone noticed? As the dollar strengthens, oil eases and the market moves higher. Since the oil price bubble has been excessively inflated by institution traders trading the futures, there could be a pop soon and a cascade effect which may move the market higher.

The last two days and first 4 days of any month have higher returns. Stacking up the risk in our favor, IMHO time to trade. Will move to S/C combo today. I will get washed by the rising dollar. F has been moving sideways all month and slipping behind on slight inflation fears. That was a failed trade.
 
Uptrend said:
IMHO, the retracement down this AM is a fake
I hope for your sake you're right.

Has anyone noticed? As the dollar strengthens, oil eases and the market moves higher.
Oil is certainly a big factor. Looking at the enormous Bail Outs in combination with Rate Cuts any strength in the dollar will be headlined on the bill boards - but true strength is in the future.

Since the oil price bubble has been excessively inflated by institution traders trading the futures, there could be a pop soon and a cascade effect which may move the market higher.
This is the most fundamental underlying issue. If it is due to increasing demand - with limited supply - the price will continue to rise. All the hard figures are showing the supply is leveling off and we are there "tapping out" - and at best we can only meet the current demand for maybe 5 or so years before supplies go down. If that is true then $5 to $8 dollars per gallon of gas will be a bargain.

The last two days and first 4 days of any month have higher returns. Stacking up the risk in our favor, IMHO time to trade. Will move to S/C combo today.
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My gut says you're right. Even if this is a downward trend the next 5 days should yeild a good bounce - before the drop.

GL - Uptrend
 
Uptrend,
I have a lot of respect for you - and have from the start. So please know I'm not trying to challenge your comment about the dollar getting stronger - especially in relation to Oil and the Markets. But I am amazed how they can grab the smallest detail and blow it up like it's a huge event.

Dollar Surges as Oil Drops​

That's close to what the Headline said - so I read the article. ​
In the late afternoon in New York, the 15-nation currency fell to $1.5635 from $1.5704 late Tuesday in New York.
The British pound rose to $1.9802 from $1.9763, while the dollar was unchanged at 105.26 Japanese yen.

In other words the dollar gained 0.0069 cents on the EURO

Lost 0.0039 on the Pound

Unchanged on the Yen

 
I hate that word..."surge" - since it was used to send more troops to Iraq. Very misleading.:mad: We say we're liberators, they say we're invaders and occupying a sovereign nation. We call them "insurgents", they call themselves patriots.

Hmmm...insurgents, surge. Wonder if that's where Bush got that from? Surge against the insurgents? Whatever happened to guerrillas?;)

Sorry Uptrend, I didn't mean to hijack the thread....just agreeing with Steady about "surge" being ludicrous.
 
We are at a tough point for traders in the market. Looking in the rearview mirror I see I should have done an IFT last Friday before the holiday. but one of my rules are to not hold over a holiday weekend. The bounce I was expecting off the 50 dma has already mostly happened. Now we are up against the 20 dma and it will be acting as resistance. Plus, we have a bearish MA pattern on the charts with the near completion of the A pattern. If this plays out, we will see a big drop next. Yuk! So this is my one day trade, going back to G, and using up the extra IFT in May and getting the heck out of bond fund yesterday.

When the market bounced off the upper side of the 20 dma a few weeks ago it moved to 1438 on the spx, a near 50 point run. We bounced off the 50 dma last Friday at about 1375, so the same gain would put a top at around 1425. But that makes a confusing top, and also violates the MA pattern. So I will keep my risk management in favor of the technicals.
 
Not Playing

The finnancials - that is See charts of BAC, WB and WM

View attachment 3977

View attachment 3978

View attachment 3979

It really doesn't matter which financial chart you look at, as they all broke down in early May while the rest of the market was rallying. They are all below their 20, 50 and 200 dma. WB and WM are in danger of a big breakdown, if they break below the previous low.

Rally or big breakdown? The financials are sitting on the fence. Since the financials led us down before, are they saying "come on down"? Folks in the know and big investors at these banks must be hiding something. It is in the charts! Or is this a shorters paradise?

I am standing by for the fieworks for the hard and fast fall. I don't see any big spark that would cause a sustained rally. In fact, I am expecting some news of another BS type breakdown soon. Won't that be a killer?

Holding G
 
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