Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Markets went down today, but no real bottoming tails on the candlestick charts, so there is more downside risk in the cards. I expect the market to go along choppy for 1-2 weeks on the way down to the 1225-1250 S&P support area. Need to hit the June-July 2006 levels. Anything can happen, but I expect we will get there. About 75-100 points further down. Most systems are sitting on sell signals, so we must be patient.

I am not a real fan of putting some retirement $ in TSP and some more in an individual IRA. Too much maintenance. Am trying to look at the BIG picture on the charts and make just a few moves that yield 20%+ for the year. I know it is possible, as I showed that 6 moves in/out of C last year would have yielded 37%!

I am hoping for a massive selloff sometime soon, so we can have a 10-15% rally. But markets don't do what you ask for, so probably just some more dribble.

 

[Uptrend]

When all looks bad it is probably time to BUY C Fund


That is what the $SPX chart is telling me. A piercing line candlestick pattern which is highly reliable. Lets look at other evidence:

OEX put call ratio is 0.66 (really low). The contrarian viewpoint is good.

The Fibs are at about a 61% retracement from the previous high. This is technically significant.


I am not sure there is much more news that can lower expectations. We heard about Walmart 0 earnings growth today, and the market went up. And that is the largest retailer out there.


Market is trading sideways to a little up with high volatility. Translated that = indecision.


Bottomline: I am not sure now if we will retest the previous lows right away. Might be a big rebound until we get the next dose of bad news in March/April.

 

[Uptrend]

From a technical standpoint Elliot Wave theory suggests we are starting the 3rd wave up of the 3 wave set that goes against the grain of the downtrend. 5 wave zigzag down (starting in Nov. 07) + three in a zigzag up direction (starting on Jan 23 08). So my take is the market will go up in the short term. On the 3 wave pattern, the 3rd wave is usually the longest. Then the 5 wave down pattern will resume, and look out below!

My IFT was 60% I, 20% C and 20% S today (2-08-08). One reason for the spread is because I can stay within 2 trades a month, but go back to the G fund in stages, with the unlimited trades to G after #2 trade. This gives one more flexible options.

Here are my stops:
I Fund: EFA stop at 71.5 when the 20 dma is touched. This is about 5% above the close today. The EFA has not penetrated the 20 dma in the downtrend. If it does penetrate and there is a confirmation day, then the stop will be at 76 or about 11% above the close today.

C Fund: $SPX stop at 1420 when the 50 dma is touched. This is about 6.5% above the close today. The 20 dma will be penetrated easily, because even though it is below now, it was weakened by a close above a few days ago.

S Fund: $EMW stop at 630 when the 50 dma is touched. This is about 4.5% above the close today. The 20 dma will be penetrated easily because even though it is below now, it was weakened by a close above a few days ago.

 

[hessian]

Hey Uptrend,
I'm no expert at EWT, but trying to pick it up (bits & pieces isn't the best way to learn, I know). So I rely on others, for now - posted at http://caldaroew.spaces.live.com/ ...
"After a five year bull market, we're still getting accustomed to the new bear market. After years of looking for five waves up and three waves down. We now have to look for three waves up and down. Bear markets are all correctional. As compared to bull markets that impulse during uptrends, and are only correctional during downtrends. There are no five wave bear markets."

See his chart at post #115, at http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=148139#post148139
Personally, I wish I knew what to make of it!!!:suspicious:
VR

 

[Corepuncher]

So your "third" trade can actually be many trades if you incrementally go back to G? So I can use 2 trades up, then, a 3rd trade I can put 5% into G, then another 5%, etc etc? Or, do you have to do 100% into G?

 

[Uptrend]

Corepuncher:

Yes, as I understand it you can have unlimited trades to G in any month after the first 2. So one could take a little off the table to the G fund in multiple moves. If one moves to G 100% on the second move, one is done for the month.

 

[Uptrend]

Hessian: Thanks for the info. However, the ABC x ABC x is also just a theroy. There are 5 wave down moves, and a 3 way move against the trend, just as there are 5 way zigzag up moves with a 3 zigzag move against the trend.

Regardless if you subscribe to the 5+3, 5+3 or ABC X ABC for the downtrend, we are now in a up wave, the x wave by the ABC x theroy and or wave 3 of the 3 wave. I also count 5 waves down from the high, and a 2 wave against the trend. Look for yourself.

Time to take some gains!

 

[Uptrend]

We are in a little rally, but range bound between 1320 -1340 ish on the S&P. The rally is sputtering along and it is like watching grass grow or paint dry. We have 1316 as lower support and 1270 below that. We need a jump start of some sort to really get the rally going. On the other hand if the XLF chart breaks down any further, the financials could be going down and drag the whole S&P with it. I am watching that.

However, I still think there is an upside bias. The market should slowly float higher with no real news.

Despite all the neagative talk, I still don't believe we are in a Bear Market "yet". We have not closed down 20% on the S&P, and that is unheard of in an election year, going way back. We have not had 2 quarters of negeative growth yet either. Conclusion: Bear Market is possible but as of yet is not confirmed. It is well known that news services sell their stories on fear. Gets folks attention every time. So news, stop all the hype, cuz it ain't true.

 

[weatherweenie]

We are in a little rally, but range bound between 1320 -1340 ish on the S&P.

Gapped up and we're at 1351 now.

Breakout rally?

 

[Uptrend]

The 20 dma goes through 1350 on the $SPX. We need to close above today and confirm that move tomorrow by staying above for this little rally to continue. Futures say we will close at 1351 (I don't put much faith in futures, as they are wrong a lot). There is an upper shadow on the candlestick chart this AM, but hope it will be erased as the day goes along. If not, we might consolidate tomorrow or move sideways or down. I am not expecting a big drop however.

 

[Birchtree]

Open Range.

 

[hessian]

A little hope can be a powerful force.
Warren Buffet likely gave us this boost, in large part, anyway.
You'ld think expectations are already low for retail news tomorrow, & other news for next few days should already be known/baked-in.
I understand that opex weeks can, and often do, go against trends too.
Just 2 cents.
VR

 

[Uptrend]

The uptrend continues, because we are not overbought. The OEX put/call ratio 10 day average of 0.95 is evidence. Now, however, we closed right on the $SPX 20 dma today, so the market is waiting for the next news. So, I guess the retail sales for Jan 08 would be the market mover. The expectation is -0.3% M/M and 0.2% less autos. I don't think the expectation is very high, so it might be difficult to disappoint. The Dec 07 report had more of a gap between the expectation and the actual, and caused a sell-off. This report will be out before market open, so we will know how the trading day will go.

Now what the charts tell me. EFA (for I) has 20 dma and a gap window converging at the same place a couple points up. When the EFA touches the 20 it might be time to sell, as there will be double resistance. Need to watch anyway, and use USM as a guide because of the follow relationship. $SPX has to get back above the 20 dma and keep going toward the 1410 stop. There is also chart resistance near here, with a couple minor chart resistance bumps along the way. Todays close at 1348. $EMW (for S) has chart resistance at 625 and 50 dma at 630. Todays close at 608. $TNX (for F) has confirmed the move above the 20 dma. I use this as contrarian and proof that the uptrend continues.

This week still should be positive overall, even if we retrace slightly tomorrow. I am thinking a lot of Options X ers have bets on puts, as that was the main market direction over the last 6 weeks, so there will be a real effort to squeeze them out to make their options worthless. Further IMO the market could swing either up or down tomorrow, but primarily up on Thursday and Friday barring no really insane negative news. So right now I am thinking, depending on where the market is, to sell on Friday (IFT to G or F). As you know markets usually reverse the following Monday after OpX. The question will become whether to sell my positions in S and C only or also I. Will depend on how healthy the EFA is looking. The market seems to be going up for a week, down for a week and then up for a week at the moment. Weekly swings for the last 2 weeks -will this be a third?

Happy limited trading!

 

[Uptrend]

Paladin:
You make some excellant points! Look at this $SPX chart.

View attachment 3298

First I have shown my take on Elloit wave theory. 1 - 5 represent the down wave in Dec-Jan followed by the corrective ABC wave. You can see that we are now on the C leg. (One can argue on which waves you use to get the correct numbering - but I have studied quite a bit and IMHO have a correct interpretation). What looks to be happening is that a flag is forming and the market is starting to be jammed in the apex of the flag. If one chooses the top of the number 2 wave to draw the top line differently, it would cross near 1396-1400. Which one is correct? I don't know. The $SPX candlestick is also a spinning top today (indecision).

But this is what I do know. In this correction market (I hesitate to call it a bear market yet regardless of the news, because we have not had 2 negative quarters and that is the technical defination. Also based on the close from the high in Oct to the low in Jan we have only corrected 16.2%) one should take reasonable gains and run.

After the EWT C wave, the market will go down. I think that is probably next week. So, you have convinced me, and the charts have convinced me to take some gains off the table tomorrow. Perhaps all of it.

Also the consumer sentiment report on Friday could be a market mover. Not sure how that will play out, but can't be too great.

 

[Uptrend]

Baidu.com (BIDU) is up 7% after hours on earnings. It is called one of the 4 horseman of tech stocks by some analysts. So the Nasdaq will get a lift in the morning.

Also First Solar (FSLR) soared today, up $52.90 or 30% !!! And it went up another $3.74 (1.64%) after hours. That looks to be one of the trades of the year!

 

[Uptrend]

Feb 15 is over.

Well after today we are sitting on the fence. But IMO the downside is favored. Here is why - See chart

View attachment 3302

You can see the last few days and the mini-head and shoulders pattern that has formed. The close today was right near (perhaps a little above) the 20 dma. We are also jammed in the point of the flag, with the downtrend coming across the top candlesticks (see post #190). We could either break to the upside or downside from this point. I am thinking down we go. Seasonality is weak. The last opX week was in Jan with a holiday following and the world markets tanked. Could this be a repeat as today is opX and Monday is a holiday? The mini H&S and the flag is complete, and we are in a major correction or downtrend. Any news, and I think we will break down. Very risky to play. Carl Swenlin of Decisionpoint thinks we break down:

http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/080215_bottom.html

AGG shot up after hours for some reason. Are folks holding equities nervous? Up 0.62% - and that is huge for bonds.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=AGG

IMO we are close to having a broken H&S and a flag that will pop. These are bear tracks. Holding F for a big gain.

 

[Guest2]

Uptrend, After Hours Volume for AGG was only 1000. Yesterdays the entire
days volume for AGG was 455,283. I'm hoping for the +.62% on Tuesday
myself,,,,,,

 

[hessian]

Feb 15 is over.
Well after today we are sitting on the fence. But IMO the downside is favored. Here's why...
AGG shot up after hours for some reason. Are folks holding equities nervous? Up 0.62% - and that is huge for bonds.
IMO we are close to having a broken H&S and a flag that will pop. These are bear tracks. Holding F for a big gain.

Hey Uptrend,
Your posts and analyses are terrific. Hoping to return favor, the link below, for Friday, seems to address the AGG question (2nd part), plus maybe adds confirmation on the suggested trend (1st part)... http://stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Doesn't seem this bodes well for F-Fund'ers (but I'm not sure)?? :worried:
You may find previous couple days (tabs), of interest too -for other info perhaps relevant.
VR
PS Link initially, courtesy of Vectorman, from post a ways back (may want to retain it also as a "Favorite").

 

[Uptrend]

Hessian:

Good stuff form your Expert Stock Market Timer. Interesting theory. This quote:

""Thirty year yields should be lower than they are, but financial institutions are getting very resistant to making loans, so higher rates have to be paid to satisfy their perceived risks."

Yields move opposite to bond prices, so this would be bad for the F fund. I was wondering why the F fund was going down big on
Feb 14, while the market was also going down. Usually it is opposite. I jumped in Feb 15 because I thought the F was oversold, and because at 2 IFT a month, that was my 2nd trade, so only G would be left for a third and subsequent trades if I wnet out in stages.

But I think at the same time tis credit crunch is going on that could push the F fund down, there is a flight to safety because of the insurers problems and bond ratings downgrades. Perhaps some folks are changing their portfollios and investing to a greater degree in more secure gov bonds? And it appears that most of the TSP F fund is in quality bonds. Also if the market drops again there will be hedging in gov bonds, which should push the yields down and the prices up in the TSP F fund.

Bottonline: The bond market appears tricky right now. IMO ride out the oversold condition, hope the market goes down, and then get out and back into stocks.

 

[Uptrend]

Squalebear:

Thanks for the AGG after hours volume look. Just thought it was odd, should have looked but didn't. Either someone will get killed, or they know something? Hoping for a big up anyway!