Uptrend's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

The market reversal appears to be a bounce, and probably will not sustain. I looked at the 1987 crash black Monday when the market fell 22%, and that was followed by a 3 day bounce, followed by a 3 day down before again taking off to the upside for a longer rally. Since I am only 25% into I, will probably exit on Thursday, and wait for the next 2-3 day reversal, before trying to play a better rally. My expectation is that it will start late next week ner the end of the month.

These bear type markets will draw you in with a large trader buy program and then crush you wilth the huge automatic sell program.

Well put!................You are brillant.

 

[Uptrend]

All I see on the charts today so far is +, doji, or inverted hammer. So the market is sputtering. Expect a reversal in a trading day or so. Not sure the risk/reward is there yet.

I see the Nikkei went up pretty good last night, and Europe is blazing today, but is not reflected in the EFA to the same degree. Don't understand that.

The AGG came down and kissed the 10 dma. When it did this before, it took off for a good up over a number of days. Still worried a little about inflation with all these Fed cuts and the effect on bonds.

 

[southbeachrat]

All I see on the charts today so far is +, doji, or inverted hammer. So the market is sputtering. Expect a reversal in a trading day or so. Not sure the risk/reward is there yet.

I see the Nikkei went up pretty good last night, and Europe is blazing today, but is not reflected in the EFA to the same degree. Don't understand that.

The AGG came down and kissed the 10 dma. When it did this before, it took off for a good up over a number of days. Still worried a little about inflation with all these Fed cuts and the effect on bonds.

I agree. That is why I am buying back in slowly. The temptation is there to jump on this advance, but I must display patience. In a few months we will not be able to jump in and out. I consider this my training period for the new rules. I'm not under the illusion that we are back in a bull market.

 

[Uptrend]

President's Plan: $600 rebate if make under $75K, married $1200 if under $150k, Jumbo morgage plan raising Fannie Mae loan limit, some kind of business discount.

Looks a lot like election year politics, more than a stimulus. Just looked at the futures; they are backing down a little toward nuetral for the day, so traders don't view too favorably? Negative asia futures for tomorrow, so they are unassured? IMHO, a joke that favors the wealthy, as the loan deal appears to be more valuable than the little rebate. What else do you expect from the Republicans?

 

[Steadygain]

married $1200 if under $150k

That sounds great!! It will go straight into my Money Market Savings which is getting a little better than 4%

 

[DCguy]

srry for ignorance, but did they figure out how to distribute checks?

 

[Birchtree]

"True Colors"

 

[Uptrend]

Fear and Greed are paramount in the markets. Because of the extreme volatility last week we saw some of both. But, IMO, we saw the selling program take over on Friday, because the big traders did not want to hold positions during the weekend. Remember what happened last Monday on Martian Luther King holiday with the asian and european markets?

IMO, we are in a retrace down to the S&P 1275-1225 summer 06 support area, coming off the first major bounce. If it holds the second time around, we should get a playable advance. The Fed meeting could delay this retrace, or cause the market to trade sideways or slightly up, especially if the cut is only 0.25 basis point. My impression is that Ben Bernake is a conservative, and cut 75 last Tuesday, because he had to, in order to keep the markets from totally falling apart. The Fed must balance cutting short term ionterest rates with the effect on the dollar, and I don't think the Fed has much more leeway. I would be very surprized if the Fed cut 50 basis points next week, but if that happened the market would rally. I will sit on the sidelines and not play "Guess the Fed" But I will play when we arrive at the S&P 1225-1275 area.

 

[presskh]

President's Plan: $600 rebate if make under $75K, married $1200 if under $150k, Jumbo morgage plan raising Fannie Mae loan limit, some kind of business discount.

Looks a lot like election year politics, more than a stimulus. Just looked at the futures; they are backing down a little toward nuetral for the day, so traders don't view too favorably? Negative asia futures for tomorrow, so they are unassured? IMHO, a joke that favors the wealthy, as the loan deal appears to be more valuable than the little rebate. What else do you expect from the Republicans?

What a ripoff for those making more than these limits. It's just an extension of our welfare system - taking from those who are the most successful and redistributing it to those who aren't. It is an unneeded stimulus and, while having little effect on the overall economy, will add another $150B to the national debt. Of course, this is peanuts compared to the untold hundreds of billions of dollars (and lives of our soldiers) already poured down the Iraqi rathole!

 

[Reactive1]

Well, this 150B stimulus package is more for the psychological impact than for actual stimulus. It's meant to ensure that people know the government "cares" or some notion along those lines. But 150B is roughly equivalent to what we spent on Hurricane Katrina. It's not enough to have any impact on a multi-TRILLION dollar national economy and a good portion of it amounts to a redistribution of wealth. If the government believes so strongly in putting money in people's hands, why not lower tax rates by a few percentage points permanently?

 

[Corepuncher]

Well, this 150B stimulus package is more for the psychological impact than for actual stimulus. It's meant to ensure that people know the government "cares" or some notion along those lines. But 150B is roughly equivalent to what we spent on Hurricane Katrina. It's not enough to have any impact on a multi-TRILLION dollar national economy and a good portion of it amounts to a redistribution of wealth. If the government believes so strongly in putting money in people's hands, why not lower tax rates by a few percentage points permanently?

We can't lower taxes permanately, we actually need to raise them unless we don't want social security and medicare anymore.

I think the checks WILL have a positive impact, but only for a few months. It might even help launch us into a nice rally, since everyone at once will have a feeling of "happiness" when that check comes and they are all out spending :toung:

 

[Silverbird]

Well, this 150B stimulus package is more for the psychological impact than for actual stimulus. It's meant to ensure that people know the government "cares" or some notion along those lines. But 150B is roughly equivalent to what we spent on Hurricane Katrina. It's not enough to have any impact on a multi-TRILLION dollar national economy and a good portion of it amounts to a redistribution of wealth. If the government believes so strongly in putting money in people's hands, why not lower tax rates by a few percentage points permanently?

Because we already have a deficit in the hundreds of billions of dollars. A permanent tax rate reduction would just accelerate digging of the deficit hole and the walls can only hold up for so long.

 

[Birchtree]

See my post #2578 regarding the deficit if you are inclined.

 

[Uptrend]

Received my transfer restriction letter; which made me mad (even though I knew it was coming - but reality is different). I believe an employee can do a one time distribution at age 59.5, but not sure if that includes rolling to an outside simple IRA? Perhaps someone knows? Thinking about calling the 202 # discussing. Not happy about it.

Looking at the 4 tech giants -RIMM, YHOO, BIDU and GOOG. YHOO and GOOG are broken - that is -they are below their 200 dma. So far BIDU and RIMM are not broken, although they have bounced off their 200 dma one time. IMO if these two go through the next time they knock, then the whole tech sector will probably go down. Using these tech leaders to measure the health of the market. At this point - looking sick.

My guess is that uncle Ben B and the Fed gang will only go 25 basis points (based on his past conservative moves before the emergency move). Still believe that a retrace to 1225-1275 is highly likely.

 

[Silverbird]

Err. not quite without penalties.
1) You can only do it once.
2) Subject to taxes...or have to submit additional paperwork on IRA
Details here:
http://www.tsp.gov/forms/tspbk12.pdf

Edit: If the link just sends you to tsp.gov, go to Forms and Publications, Publications, Booklets, TSP In-Service Withdrawals

 

[fedgolfer]

Looking at the 4 tech giants -RIMM, YHOO, BIDU and GOOG. YHOO and GOOG are broken - that is -they are below their 200 dma. So far BIDU and RIMM are not broken, although they have bounced off their 200 dma one time. IMO if these two go through the next time they knock, then the whole tech sector will probably go down. Using these tech leaders to measure the health of the market. At this point - looking sick.

I'm going to go heavy QID and TWM should Ben cut .25 or market is dissappointed in any way shape or form.

 

[Uptrend]

Sitting in the G fund waiting for the craziness to subside. I figured out if one would have made 6 strategic moves last year, in and out of the C fund, would have yielded 37%! And with no more than 2 trades/month! Hindsight is always a good teacher. So perhaps the TSP restrictions might be ok - will force us to look at the big picture and quit micro-managing.

According to Yahoo financial:
There's a real probability that both the U.S. and Europe will go into recession at the same time," Lun said. "It's a financial mess on the two continents with the subprime crisis and the SocGen debacle."

Right now individual stocks are being taken out and shot one by one. Examples: AA broken, BA broken, CSCO broken, GOOG broken, RIMM ok, and BIDU ok.

Waiting for the next really big push down, so we have a real buying opportunity. Thinking it may be within a 2-3 week window. The Fed is running out of options - so that is good. Quit meddling with market forces. Tell the PPT to take a hike. When the train arrives at the 1225-1275 stop on S&P street, I will climb aboard.

 

[Fivetears]

The elders I speak with are calling for a sub-900 S&P when all is said and done; complete crazyness.

 

[Uptrend]

Would this be elder "JEDI Master Yoda"?

 

[Fivetears]

Lol :nuts: