Uptrend's Account Talk

[hessian]

Hey Uptrend, you were right. We busted right thru to high of 1480.75, so far (I thought 50/200 DMA was 1485 but spliting hairs now). Anyway, 350 reminded all, that Japan has off Monday, so my hope is that USMs continue up Monday, and that OSM then carry thru Tuesday (and on). I posted to 350 the following article -as my rational:
http://ezinearticles.com/?Market-Tim...ist)&id=593675
"The Twist
But while looking at this issue, we also found this little nugget - there was a strong correlation between the return on the day of expiration (Friday) and the return on the day after (Monday). When Friday was down, Monday tended to also be down, and vice-versa."

Have a great holiday!
VR
PS Personally, I remained 75I, & added 25S today (by COB).

 

[Uptrend]

The S has hit resistance, and more is above where the 50 and 200 dma cross.

View attachment 2863

The EFA has a lot more room to roam and has just crossed the 200 dma (bottom circle). We now need a confirmation, for a short term uptrend, which we will have by 1130 ET on Dec 24. If the EFA stays above we would have a buy signal. The 200 dma is important, and should not be overlooked. There is some resistance at 81 and the 20 dma at about 81.5. the candlestick pattern is also quite bullish.

View attachment 2862

The Nikkei has room to go. It is currently sitting at a little gap window. The 20,50 and 200 dma are above.

View attachment 2864

The dollar index has stalled. It can go up a little, but has various levels of resistance to overcome.

View attachment 2865

Bottomline: More room in the OSM. Most of Sant Claus rally has happened. USM will probably trade just a little up and sideways. So, if we get a confirmation on the EFA staying above the 200 dma on Monday, I will IFT there. Otherwise G, until F improves.

Merry Christmas Everyone!!

 

[TerpTrader]

As recently as early December, the supposed levels of resistance were blasted through...as easily as the levels of support were crashed through back in November.
These levels don't seem to hold much sway over this index lately.

The S has hit resistance, and more is above where the 50 and 200 dma cross.

View attachment 2863

 

[Uptrend]

C and S. Downside risk is rising. The uptrend has lasted 5 trading days. This is getting near the upper end of a rising market, where a little reversal comes along. 3 to 5 days on an uptrend is average; and 10-15 is exceptional and needs strong charts. We don't have strong charts. The S&P faces resistance just above, at about 1508, based on the current downtrend from Nov. 1. The OEX puts/call options ratio is now 1.75. The last two candlesticks have small upper shadows. Taken together, this is a little more bearish signal.

I EFA closed below the 200 dma, on Monday, 12/24, So an uptrend is not yet confirmed (see post 225). I am in the capitol preservation mode, waiting for a better buy signal. The 200 dma is the most important line on the chart. If you can't get above it, chances for more down become greater. Not going to take unnecessary risk, and trying to limit IFT a little.

 

[hessian]

Hey Uptrend,
Just for consideration, because I like your perspective too: check out the MSCI EAFE chart tomorrow -it was pretty darn nice looking on Monday! I'd say, it looks ready to rock!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$MS...d=p55192775979
PS (Just a sidenote: 350zCommTech said the the EFA chart had problems on Monday. The above is closer to the actual "I" fund)

I do agree though, even with the S having broke its 2nd resistance line(the 200d EMA) today, I still think we need to be watchful of C & S tomorrow. IMO, its their "trendlines" to watch (also NASDAQ, DOW, etc.) If majority of the above break on thru those trends, then it may be an open field sprint - but if trendline resistance turns prices back, I might re-evaluate whether to stay around. C & S, if they drop, could even drag the "I" down too (even as good as "I" looks).
VR

 

[Uptrend]

Today the $SPX and $EMW are retracing down. I expect them to back down and test their 20 dma. That is about 1480 for the $SPX and 660 for the $EMW. The problem is - they are going back down through their 50 and 200 day moving averages. Right now the $SPX has punched through the 200 dma and is sitting on the 50 dma; while the $EMW has retraced through both of them. Again, the 200 dma is the King of all averages. One day close below the 200 dma does not mean anything; but a confirmation day means that the downtrend is not over. If the market can't climb above the 200 dma tomorrow, the downtrend continues.

The EFA is above the 200 dma. Their was an error in the stockcharts.com EFA chart yesterday, so my post #227 was in error on the subject. The EFA had a confirmation day above the 200 dma, so a rebound in I is possible. Including today, there have been 2 indecision days since the confirmation day. Since the OSM tend to foloow the USM, I am waiting to see what happens in the USM tomorrow.

I am staying away from F at the moment. Although AGG shows a possible rebound, the $TNX shows support at the 50 dma. Also the $TNX has been climbing lately, which is bad for the F fund.

So, I am holding in G and thinking about going to I, if I see a confirmation move going up tomorrow.

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks Uptrend - makes sense to me, and I sure wouldn't mind the extra money; so will probably follow your lead this time.

 

[hessian]

Today the $SPX and $EMW are retracing down. I expect them to back down and test their 20 dma. That is about 1480 for the $SPX and 660 for the $EMW. The problem is - they are going back down through their 50 and 200 day moving averages. Right now the $SPX has punched through the 200 dma and is sitting on the 50 dma; while the $EMW has retraced through both of them. Again, the 200 dma is the King of all averages. One day close below the 200 dma does not mean anything; but a confirmation day means that the downtrend is not over. If the market can't climb above the 200 dma tomorrow, the downtrend continues.

The EFA is above the 200 dma. Their was an error in the stockcharts.com EFA chart yesterday, so my post #227 was in error on the subject. The EFA had a confirmation day above the 200 dma, so a rebound in I is possible. Including today, there have been 2 indecision days since the confirmation day. Since the OSM tend to foloow the USM, I am waiting to see what happens in the USM tomorrow.
I am staying away from F at the moment. Although AGG shows a possible rebound, the $TNX shows support at the 50 dma. Also the $TNX has been climbing lately, which is bad for the F fund.
So, I am holding in G and thinking about going to I, if I see a confirmation move going up tomorrow.

Hey Uptrend,
"Ditto"!!! I came to almost the same conclusions, and made almost the same decisions today -posted to AcctTalk, if interested. Today I saw the technical support levels all busted, plus I thought geopolitical concerns, in addition to market concerns, could be the drivers., so I bailed, also to all "G." -I also said I'd see what happens tomorrow!!!
PS -I'm thinking, now C & S both either have to break, both EMAs, now resistance, on both C & S (again!). I just don't see happening without some really good news as a driver). I more felt that we may be goin' on down from here.

I was wanting to ask your thoughts/speculaton on, what, EWT might suggest - if this small "rally"/wave is indeed concluded. Does another wave make sense? (8+3, or are there different wave sets)?
VR

 

[Birchtree]

Technical analysis is nothing more than human emotions plotted on a grid.

 

[Uptrend]

The trading year is coming to a close. There is window dressing today, and the selling that goes with it. We should see a rebound Jan 2-4.

This year was a very good year fro me, even though the going got rough in the last quarter. Best of hopes for 08. With limited trading possibilities, this website may be usefull, as it does chart technical analysis for you.

http://americanbulls.com/

Click on indices for the SP500 and NASDCOMP or NASD100. Type in EFA and AGG. I usually look at daily, but one can go to weekly mode also. Be a little cautious on what the tags mean. For example buy-if, does not mean buy; but only if certian conditions are met. The conditions pertain to technical chart analysis, as determined from a rule-set by a computer.

A must have tool in the tool bag, if we have to go to limited trading.

 

[hessian]

Hey Up bud,
You and I seem to be on same wavelength (if not the same wave).
Check out my move today. Same as yours at:
http://www.tsptalk.com/tracker/tsp_user_record_all.php

GGal & I were looking Member's daily moves on the Auto-Tracker) - it was just really difficult to find!
- I recommended, to GGal, & others interested, to bookmark this web-address as a favorite!
Mine move was made today before noon, effective for COB today - not for 1/3/08 as shown - I wish I could change/correct it.

- I had a computer glitch today, so this required me to use the "Thriftline." Then a work "crisis" -what a mess of a day!

 

[Uptrend]

Hey Hessian:
Happy New Year!!

We might be on the same wavelength, but I am a little out of step wtih the market at the moment.

The F (as tracked by AGG) has a slight downward bias for tomorrow on the candlestick chart. There is a really long upward shadow. However, when these have appeared before, the AGG passes this point to the upside within 2 months. Not waiting that long, but I think there might be a 1-3 day little bounce in the stock market, before we continue down, and the AGG continues up. However, I have been fooled by the bond fund before. It has lots of room above and could go up, expecting the coming down of the market in a few days. I noticed there was a little fall (-0.22%) after hours.

I may have jumped from the I too early, but the candlesticks punched a hole in the 200 dma (lower shadow on candlestick) on 12/31 and closed below today with the real body. It will be interesting to see if there is confirmation tomorrow. Then we shall see which way the I is likely to go. In hindsight, should have been in F since 12/27.

As soon as you feel good about the market it will tank, and as soon as you feel despair it will bounce. Go figure that!

I think I read somewhere that Tom C will let any number of IFT transfers on the Auto-Tracker per month even if not allowed by TSP. I don't like this idea, becasue it takes away the real feel of investment success or failure. What is the point of academic IFT's? It would also take away from strategy talk, or at least confuse the issue. How do others feel on this subject??

 

[Uptrend]

Regarding the I fund, why do I care if the EFA drops below the 200 dma (it did that today) and is confirmed by a second trading day. The 200 dma is shown on the chart, and is the great one of all moving averages.

Look out below!!


View attachment 2974

As you can see, 58 is not out of the question. That is 26% to the downside.

 

[hessian]

Hey Hessian:
Happy New Year!!
I think I read somewhere that Tom C will let any number of IFT transfers on the Auto-Tracker per month even if not allowed by TSP. I don't like this idea, becasue it takes away the real feel of investment success or failure. What is the point of academic IFT's? It would also take away from strategy talk, or at least confuse the issue. How do others feel on this subject??

Hey Up,
Actually GGal, myself and others, all brought this up, because there was no other way to knowing the daily moves of the "long-experienced" traders - as we all missed the capability for decisionmaking, since the "No Chat" Account Post was closed (see her thread/below)!
I obviously don't miss "the feel", but that's me. Personally, for me its just one of many factors, plus I often go against the herd anyway. I also think the "strategy talk" will continue unaffected.

On the latter subject, I'll be watching the markets today, but I've been looking at ALL the stocks & their technicals - support/resistance lines, p&f charts, etc, - and I just don't see anything that I like! Oil is going to be over $100/barrel soon, and personally, markets have me shaking in my boots!
Plus, look at the S&P500 chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55192775979
AND, at bottom, of these charts > click the box

to see this S&P500's p&f chart - its ugly (as are the other funds)! looking at this p&f, James34432 will tell you - time to bail has long past!

My point is - where else is there to go but G/F. I chose F for now, but I may be in G next week.
I think I'll be bottom-feeding (DCAing-in), for next couple months -when the bottom finally gets closer! I agree with you though: Look out below!!
VR

Re: GGal's Account Talk
Quote:
Originally Posted by Paladin
Dang it Tom. Now I have to contact the ETAC again and tell them to ignore the letters I just sent regarding the friggin autotracker... :laugh:

You win. I will still allow unlimited transfers on the autotracker.
__________________

 

[Steadygain]

Uptrend, I don't doubt you have a better ability (than me) in reading the markets and timing the TSP for better gains (at least over the long run). Since 10/07 the Markets have been too unpredictable and the patterns of the past are no longer in sync. We continue in a hap hazzard pattern that frustrates the more seasoned investors. For now I would say Show Me and ATCJeff (along with a few others) are way more valuable for staying ahead during this kaotic season. I am anxious for the Markets to return to a seasonable predictability (and of course here I am referring to the more obvious trends from one year to the next) and independantly show my worth - surely that day cannot be too far off. Anyway, I give up and wholly rely on the few who have proven themselves during this peroid. In 8/07 I had a similar moment of uncertainity and totally let Ebb guide me and although it made no sense to me - I made a fortune. Well, best of luck this year - I sincerely mean that - as the pattern of 10/07 appears to continue.

 

[Uptrend]

Staying in F for now. AGG has the best chart. The Gov jobs report will move the market, and the jobs numbers will be low, but how will that affect expectations? I don't know, but think negative. Oil near $100 can't help. And Fed speak is getting old.

The Fed thinks they can partially inflate our way out of this lending meltdown, but just the opposite might occur. That is - as the XXX billions of writedowns continue on asset based securities, money is destroyed. 100 billion so far. A downward spiril of employment will translate to more home foreclosures and charge card writeoffs. More money is destroyed. Equities will lose value. More money is destroyed. Further, lenders will not be willing to loan out funds to any but those will the lowest risks. This will tighen the money supply and reduce liquidity. Business loans will be hard to obtain further affecting employment and GDP. Putting these factors together, we have deflation regardless of what the Fed tries to do. We are nowhere near the bottom; the tip of the iceburg has just been exposed. Folks be careful - the market will lure you in and make you feel good, and then the huge drop will come. Don't be surprized if the S&P loses 1/3 to 1/2 of its value this year before we are done.

Don't want to sound to doom-ish; but it is time for a cold shower. Do you really want to gamble in this environment with your hard earned money?

 

[dickster]

Great minds truly DO think alike!

 

[Uptrend]

Went 50 C/50G because chart for F is on the outside of bollinger bands, and well as S&P in the other direction. Also the S&P is sitting on a support trendline and it held. So thinking a short term bounce is in order. FEd rate cut at any time kind of announcement would be a wild card; especially if at 0.50 level.

 

[Uptrend]

Well, the market dive on Friday 1/04 was not of a surprise. So much for the after Christmas rally and early Jan seasonality. Now we are solidly on support. See figure for S&P.

View attachment 2999

You can easily see the support from the Aug and late Nov lows. Also inside the circle you can see a M bearish pattern as market waves. Normally an A pattern is next. This means that we will advance to an A apex and then decline, forming the A. The next decline will pound that support level in the 1410 area and most likely go right on through it to the downside. Not pretty.

Other evidence for a little bounce. Oversold. When you go too far too fast, a bounce almost always occurs. Shorts don't want to carry overnight for fear of a short squeeze the next morning. When shorts buy back their shares it pushes the market to the upside. Also, there is a runmor that the Fed may make an announcement on lowering rates again. This has to put fear in the shorts. I think this will just be a feel good bounce, for 2-4 trading days, and then we will slide down the right side of the A, hard and fast.

I plan on holding C/G and or C and then going F again in a few days. That is the play by play as I see it.

 

[hessian]

Uptrend,
Another Nice Post!
Just FYI, myself and others, even Show-me, mentioned your post, in other threads - particularly the M&A pattern (which I agree may be setting up).
And also of your warning, to which, I'll confirm: may be sweet, also confirm -to be careful, it may be short & quick.
- I have to wait now, but will see how things shape up on Monday before noon!

Know that folks are really appreciating your posts!
VR