Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Cho cho train has arrived at the 50 dma. Tomorrow will be interesting with the Gov jobs report. Level looks like 65000-85000 depending on where you get your information. Let's logic this out. Number comes in higher, possilbe short surge in market, but then realization that the Fed may only cut 0.25 or no cut al all. So market goes down tomorrow and/or Monday. Number comes in lower, disappointment leads market down, but then realization that the Fed may cut 0.25 or even 0.5 basis points, so the market rallys Friday and/or Monday in advance of the announcement.

Here is what I think will happen. Since the ADP number came in at 189,000 for November, the Gov jobs will come in higher; non farm payrolls at say 140,000. Market is already in a holding pattern because $SPX at 50 dma, a resistance point. Market blasts up a little ways, but then settles back down a loses a few points. Monday would be more negative, perhaps losing 0.5% in anticipation of what the Fed may do. Tuesday will be up. So if this happens, I will make a ITF tomorrow to G/F for 12/10 and make IFT on 12/10 to be back in on 12/11. You can bet I will sell the news. Does this sound like two transfers a month. How ridiculous

 

[RPM]

Uptrend:

Futures SP500 are already showing around 0.4% down tomorrow, and Nikkei only went up about 0.6%, not enough to counter the +FV today in the I fund. I might follow you to collect the penny on Monday...

 

[hessian]

Hi Uptrend.
I went back in G today on same premises. Today there is also Dec Consumer Sentiment due at 10:00am (76.00 exp.), and later (at 3:00pm); Consumer Credit (Oct M/M at 9.00B exp.); both also likely weak & therefore other possible reasons for slight pulback.
Monday has no news really (pending home sales at 10:00), pretty much a no-brainer.
Fed annoucement Tues is'nt until 2:15pm, so would Wed be your day to IFT then?

 

[Uptrend]

No I made IFT on Friday to G/F for Monday. Lets be realistic. Markets don't always behave the same way. The large cap wants a 50 basis point cut, but I don't think it will happen, because the Dept of Labor report was not great, but better than expected. So the economy is still adding jobs. Inflation is picking up. Subprime still a mess. Dollar rebounding slightly but low. So these factors indicate to me that we have a 25 basis point cut out of the FOMC meeting announcement on Tuesday Dec 11, but too much risk to go higher. This will disappoint. We could go down hard in minutes after the announcement. We have also had lower volume the last few days. Moves higher should be on higher volume, not lower volume.

These factors tell me to get out and stay out for now. The Tuesday trade is just too risky. Going to be a spectator.

 

[RPM]

These factors tell me to get out and stay out for now. The Tuesday trade is just too risky. Going to be a spectator.

Excellent call, as always!

 

[Uptrend]

Well, the market tanked. And that was expected. Now what? The next test on the S&P is the 20 dma just below at about 1465. If we bounce off of there, we might have a little rally. Of we could continue to go down to the 1430 gap, if the 20 dma is penetrated. So, in the short term if either hold up, I might go for a little upside,the Christmas rally. I expect tomorrow to be indecision, with perhaps a little up. I think we will retrace however, to the lower support levels. We might have a few days to play the feel good season, but it will be a short play, and I expect it to be somewhat volatile.

Now, the longer term through the first two quarters of 2008 looks horrible. Presidental election years are supposed to be up, but this time could be different. I am now anticipating a market decline of 20% or so. By Elliot wave theory, I think we are in a #3 wave down, and we just finished the #2 upwave today, when the S&P was at 1523. This 3 wave correction goes against the prior trend, and the third wave, is a lot longer and deeper than the first wave that stopped around 1400. I think it is possibloe we retrace to 1375, or even 1225 (about -20%). These areas are good support.

Plan on a camping trip to G for the New Year.

 

[hessian]

Somebody pinch me - am I dreaming?

Yahoo Finance...Dec 12 - opens w/
SymbolLastChange
Dow13,687.69 ^254.92 (1.90%)
Nasdaq2,708.69 ^56.34 (2.12%)
S&P 5001,510.41 ^32.76 (2.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.1320% ^0.1420
:blink:

 

[Birchtree]

Don't fight the Fed! On average, the market has rallied more than 30% within 12 months of the second Fed rate cut. We just had #3 and #4 is eventually coming. More rate cuts than two were needed in 1994.

 

[Frixxxx]

Somebody pinch me - am I dreaming?

Yahoo Finance...Dec 12 - opens w/
SymbolLastChange
Dow13,687.69 ^254.92 (1.90%)
Nasdaq2,708.69 ^56.34 (2.12%)
S&P 5001,510.41 ^32.76 (2.22%)
10-Yr Bond 4.1320% ^0.1420
:blink:

This should have been the boards yesterday. I hate it when the fed and the street act like 2 year olds.

 

[Uptrend]

More Fed tinkering jerking the markets around. And now the worst wholesale price monthly rise in 34 years. The FEd knew this would happen trying to battle the subprime mess by adding liquidity, affecting inflation.

I still think we are headed a lot lower, but now right away perhaps. The S&P so far is staying above the 20 dma. If retracement comes down and kisses the line (1465), I may be temped to go back in for a brief spell. The EFA is sitting right on its 20 dma for support. I am thinking it might rebound off of there as well. Dollar is a little higher today and last few days, and would take away some of the gain.

Will be watching by IFT time, and may make a short-term move today or tomorrow. But if the 20 dma gets busted, I will wait.

 

[presskh]

More Fed tinkering jerking the markets around. And now the worst wholesale price monthly rise in 34 years. The FEd knew this would happen trying to battle the subprime mess by adding liquidity, affecting inflation.

I still think we are headed a lot lower, but now right away perhaps. The S&P so far is staying above the 20 dma. If retracement comes down and kisses the line (1465), I may be temped to go back in for a brief spell. The EFA is sitting right on its 20 dma for support. I am thinking it might rebound off of there as well. Dollar is a little higher today and last few days, and would take away some of the gain.

Will be watching by IFT time, and may make a short-term move today or tomorrow. But if the 20 dma gets busted, I will wait.

I don't think the PPI increase was attributable to the Fed's actions. They are simply trying to provide some stimulation to what they perceive as an overall slowing economy. In my opinion, the increase was probably due to the effects of higher oil and other commodity prices finally filtering into the rest of the economy. You can't have such a drastic increase in the price of basic commodities, which affect all aspects of production, transportation, etc., without these increases eventually being passed on. Like it or not, there is really no one to "blame" - it is simply a matter of people in other parts of the world becoming more affluent and competing with the US for finite natural resources. This is one of many things our government cannot really do anything about.

 

[Uptrend]

The NASDAQ cloesed essentially right on the 200 dma today, so a down move was not confirmed. Looking for a little bounce on light volume for the next few days. With this being options X week the market will go opposite of what dumb money is thinking. OEX put/call ratio is fairly bearish, so the market will probably do the opposite. Will more than likely take a position in S tomorrow for Friday. Research in Motion announces after the bell, am still checking for information, but betting it will be good. The market traded sideways today, but it looks like a little bounce is forming. OSM also oversold.

 

[Uptrend]

Well, the bounce is starting, and the futures look bright. If the NASDAQ rises too rapidly tonorrow, I may exit the S trade but Monday is more likely. The open will gap up as research in motion is very good news with 2x earnings for the tech sector. Light volume will also favor the upside. The Wilshire 4500 has hammer candlesticks for 2 of the last 3 trading days, and is still below the 20 dma, so there is more room for upside. In fact there is almost 3% room for upside before crossing the 200 dma.

I have had a really hard time with this downtrend, so this mini-rally is very welcome. Pour it on. With options X, lets squeeze out the puts.

 

[Uptrend]

For the S folks. Here is the $EMW Wilshire 4500 chart. Note the 5 areas of resistance above. The market will need to blast through each of these to keep going.

View attachment 2852

The 20 dma is first. 2 & 3 are prior market stall areas. 4 is the 50 dma and 5 is the 200 dma. Note the bullish candlestick pattern forming. Today there was no upper shadow. That's good. I expect we will gap to the 20 dma or even the 2nd resistance area near 660 off the open on Firday.

 

[Uptrend]

One more thing (See the next two posts below). It looks as if the futures are really kicking, so I probably will sell the S position on Firday Dec 21.

Another factor is that we don't know if the TSP fund managers will run Monday Dec 24th or not. So will the share prices be calculated Dec 24 or Dec 26? I am not going to wait around to find out, if they don't post info on TSP website by the morning.

 

[wv-girl]

One more thing (See the next two posts below). It looks as if the futures are really kicking, so I probably will sell the S position on Firday Dec 21.

Another factor is that we don't know if the TSP fund managers will run Monday Dec 24th or not. So will the share prices be calculated Dec 24 or Dec 26? I am not going to wait around to find out, if they don't post info on TSP website by the morning.

from tsp.gov

The Thrift Savings Plan will be closed on Tuesday, December 25th, in observance of Christmas Day. Transactions that would have been processed Tuesday night (December 25th) will be processed Wednesday night (December 26th), at Wednesday's closing share prices.

 

[hessian]

Hey Uptrend,
I've been looking at S for awhile too. Here's my take FWIW...
Good analysis below. I'd add: 1) you know how S is closely linked to "C", so look also at C (for clues on S). Note that C has a gap to filll at 1465 to 1470 - both levels could act as resistance for C, and therefore also S may influence/possibly stall S here a little (today I expect). After this C has the 50 and 200 DMAs to contend with at ~1485, again possibly slowing S's run. Now, 2) I agree S itself does have more room to advance, so I like it personally too, though I opine that considering above, and your chart's suggested resistances, there may be a bit of a more slower, more steady advance (stay thru next week).
Like to hear any thoughts on this.
Thanks!
VR

For the S folks. Here is the $EMW Wilshire 4500 chart. Note the 5 areas of resistance above. The market will need to blast through each of these to keep going. The 20 dma is first. 2 & 3 are prior market stall areas. 4 is the 50 dma and 5 is the 200 dma. Note the bullish candlestick pattern forming. Today there was no upper shadow. That's good. I expect we will gap to the 20 dma or even the 2nd resistance area near 660 off the open on Firday.

 

[Uptrend]

The S&P already blasted through the 1465 gap and is now at about 1478. Futures suggest it is going to 1490. Remember this is options X of quad witching, so there will be a squeeze on those who had bets the market would go down. The S&P has major resistance at 1490, where the 200 and 50 dma collide.

The I also has room to roam, and is way oversold and way below the 200 dma. I want to go there if the candlestick can get above the 200 dma, but that does not look like today. So I have two possible scenarios. 1) Stay S until Monday, and If I goes above the 200 dma, IFT to I. This way one can hold over Christmans and possibly get a OSM rally. 2) Either sell S position (Go to G) today or Monday Dec 24th. I'm tossing a coin.

 

[350zCommTech]

The S&P already blasted through the 1465 gap and is now at about 1478. Futures suggest it is going to 1490. Remember this is options X of quad witching, so there will be a squeeze on those who had bets the market would go down. The S&P has major resistance at 1490, where the 200 and 50 dma collide.

The I also has room to roam, and is way oversold and way below the 200 dma. I want to go there if the candlestick can get above the 200 dma, but that does not look like today. So I have two possible scenarios. 1) Stay S until Monday, and If I goes above the 200 dma, IFT to I. This way one can hold over Christmans and possibly get a OSM rally. 2) Either sell S position (Go to G) today or Monday Dec 24th. I'm tossing a coin.

If you have time, please check out my I fund thread. I would appreciate you opinion on a few things.

thanks.

 

[Uptrend]

Sure will, but need to run an errand right now. Many folks think the Santa Claus rally will go on all next week, and perhaps into the New Year. Not so sure. I think the market will move up today and now Monday, since the rally is good, but not huge, and more cash is coming in from the sidelines, not wanting to miss it. I think Tuesday and Wednesday may trade sideways in the USM. That is because of the 200 dma resistance point that must be overcome, a little move up, and then a retest of the 200 dma.