Uptrend's Account Talk

[Guest2]

We are Finished

TSP to limit trades to 2 a month, plus jump to the G fund after that if you want. Effective right away to the 3000 frequent traders.

http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=38616&dcn=todaysnews


I am bummed. May loan against the fund and day trade it. However, don't want to pay capital gains tax. If you retire you can roll to a IRa at a broker and electronically day trade (like going to Ameritrade).

Will need to sort out best course of action

I know this rant won't help, but I had to kick someones shins. So I wrote
the Editor and the Thrift Saving Board the following;

If I only had 2 Interfund Transfers per month, I'd be up 2% ytd if LUCKY.
While currently up 16.06% ytd, this measure will severely limit the TSP
participants from achieving possible higher gains.This is the 3rd and most
important part of our small retirement benefit (Law Enforcement). By
restricting it's use, the Board has made retirement affordablity years
longer for this loyal and hard working Government Employee. With mass
retirements coming in 2010 and beyond, maybe that's their intent all
along. 3.6 million people will now be restricted because 3000 participants
desired to trade in and out of Funds and improve their families position.
I can only imagine the Law Suites that will occur from this. So many
participants have invested in Financial Services related to the timing of
Interfund Transfers. This incompetence won’t come cheap. Mr. Long has
failed to see the bigger picture AGAIN ! It's not the 3000 he has to worry
about, it's the 3.63 million that will have restrictions imposed upon them.
3.6 Million and no alternative solutions. This could get interesting !

 

[hessian]

Originally Posted by Uptrend
We are Finished

TSP to limit trades to 2 a month, plus jump to the G fund after that if you want. Effective right away to the 3000 frequent traders.
http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cf...dcn=todaysnews

I am bummed. May loan against the fund and day trade it. However, don't want to pay capital gains tax. If you retire you can roll to a IRa at a broker and electronically day trade (like going to Ameritrade).
Will need to sort out best course of action

I know this rant won't help, but I had to kick someones shins. So I wrote
the Editor and the Thrift Saving Board the following;

If I only had 2 Interfund Transfers per month, I'd be up 2% ytd if LUCKY.
While currently up 16.06% ytd, this measure will severely limit the TSP
participants from achieving possible higher gains.This is the 3rd and most
important part of our small retirement benefit (Law Enforcement). By
restricting it's use, the Board has made retirement affordablity years
longer for this loyal and hard working Government Employee. With mass
retirements coming in 2010 and beyond, maybe that's their intent all
along. 3.6 million people will now be restricted because 3000 participants
desired to trade in and out of Funds and improve their families position.
I can only imagine the Law Suites that will occur from this. So many
participants have invested in Financial Services related to the timing of
Interfund Transfers. This incompetence won’t come cheap. Mr. Long has
failed to see the bigger picture AGAIN ! It's not the 3000 he has to worry
about, it's the 3.63 million that will have restrictions imposed upon them.
3.6 Million and no alternative solutions. This could get interesting !

Uptrend, AND ALL,
Three words: ...Class Action Lawsuit!
VR

 

[hessian]

Class Action Lawsuit!

 

[phillyfed]

Originally Posted by Uptrend
We are Finished

TSP to limit trades to 2 a month, plus jump to the G fund after that if you want. Effective right away to the 3000 frequent traders.
http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cf...dcn=todaysnews

I am bummed. May loan against the fund and day trade it. However, don't want to pay capital gains tax. If you retire you can roll to a IRa at a broker and electronically day trade (like going to Ameritrade).
Will need to sort out best course of action

Uptrend, AND ALL,
Three words: ...Class Action Lawsuit!
VR

Hessian,

I have an Aetna 403b as well. I was playing it like a fiddle for awhile to get the overseas market carryover when US popped after the OSM markets closed. They allowed me to trade into International stocks with a 4PM IFT cutoff. It was gold. I made a bundle. They caught on to the game after awhile. They actually called me by phone to tell me they are putting a trade restriction on my account. They soon after made it official that they were only allowing 2 roundtrip transfers per qtr. to everybody because of increased trading costs to the fund. That happened around 2003. Theres really nothing we can do. You either accept the funds rules or bail.

I have a Sharebuilder Roth IRA account that I will continue to use to daytrade. I dont know how much your contributing to the TSP currently or if at all. I myself only put in the matching 5% but it builds up quickly on a GS-12's salary. If your contributing more, you might want to consider putting that in a Roth IRA via a Sharebuilder type account. ING just bought Sharebuilder and you get a 4.20% return in a money market when you put your money on the sidelines. Obviously you have to trade it well and make it worth your while as the money you put in has already been taxed income. Im 36 years old and am willing to take risks. I like being able to invest in FXI (The chinese ETF) as well as some other ideas i have regarding futures and options trading.

Its a big blow, but we have the best retirement fund that I know of. That 100% matching is becoming a thing of the past for almost all of the fortune 500 companies. A good plan in private industry may match you 50%. Thats about it.

Happy Holidays

 

[hessian]

Uptrend,
WOW, sorry! I don't know what happened! I only meant for 1 post! I did hit the cancel button 1 time, the other I don't know. A bug somewhere -my computer at work has been working REAL slow/poorly.
Apologies - completely unintentional! :embarrest:
VR

 

[presskh]

We are Finished

TSP to limit trades to 2 a month, plus jump to the G fund after that if you want. Effective right away to the 3000 frequent traders.

http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=38616&dcn=todaysnews

I am bummed. May loan against the fund and day trade it. However, don't want to pay capital gains tax. If you retire you can roll to a IRa at a broker and electronically day trade (like going to Ameritrade).

Will need to sort out best course of action

The bad thing is, if your second monthly trade is to 100% G fund as a safe haven, that is it for the month. So, we effectively are only being allowed one turnaround trade per month.

 

[Uptrend]

Right I thought about that also. A round trip to the G fund is really two trades. At a minimum we need the trades increased by 1-2.

I have really been getting hammered by this downtrend, and have just been out of synch. It is flustrating when your balance declines by 6% in 3.5 weeks. Tomorrow does not look real hot in the futures as they are all red, and looks like yesterday without the last 30 minute rally. I am not really convinced we are forming a bottom at 1420, but sure we are due for an up wave. I am left wondering if we are on a #5 wave down cycle (Elliott wave theory). If so, we are on wave #4 which has to go up. But wave #5 will go down, probably to the 1370 area. Still in, taking a rough ride.

Nikkei really fell tonight, so Japans part of EFA will fall tomorrow, and might set tone for the I fund. The I is getting very attractive in the buy zone. It was sitting on the 200 dma with the 20 dma still above the 50 dma, which is a sign it is avoiding market weakness so far. With Wednesday's probable drop it will probably be sitting on the 200 dma again. At this point I am shifting to I 100% and going to stay there; trying to catch the snap back potential. I think near $100 oil was one of the Nikkei fall factors, as well as the disappointment over a USM Fed cut rumor when determined it was a hoax.

 

[Steadygain]

I am bummed. May loan against the fund and day trade it. However, don't want to pay capital gains tax. If you retire you can roll to a IRa at a broker and electronically day trade (like going to Ameritrade).

Uptrend, getting a loan against the fund would defeat the whole purpose of the TSP and I'm sure you know this. On top of this you can only get half the amount and that has be paid back through your paychecks - so it would be a long process paying it back. I know this only because I was going to get a loan against the fund - put it down on the principal of my house and pay it off in 2 years. I planned to roll over another retirement account into the TSP to pay off what I borrowed - but that's not allowed. Anyway - you and I are in the same boat. We both came to this site with an incredible track record, ready to show everyone how to do it - and both of us got screwed. But bailing from the TSP itself would be a big mistake.

 

[Birchtree]

Sorry guys, but no one has been injured to date - working corrections is part of investing and will always be the case. How you handle the corrections will determine your success in the longer run. That's what makes it interesting - think how boring investing would be if things went straight up - and we're left sitting in the G fund. Take opportunity with your DCA allotments. IMHO the real objective of the game should be to accumulate as many shares as possible - and you get more shares at lower prices even when your account balance gets devalued - that's the sacrifice needed to get those prices.

 

[Steadygain]

At this point I am shifting to I 100% and going to stay there; trying to catch the snap back potential.

The ITF you made for COB today is 30% G / 70% I.

I'm a little surprized you didn't shift at 100% since it went down over 2% today and after hours was still going. Let's hope it springs back up.

 

[Uptrend]

Steadygain Thanks for the question. I was in a real hurry this morning because we have a business outside the gov and I had to go and manage it today. So, I did not have time to explain. The EFA was sitting right on the 200 dma at IFT time, but was starting to slip, so I have lost enough and am starting to hedge. Looking for a little bounce point to get out. At this point I will probably sell Friday and be G 100%. My account has declined about 8% so far, with three bad daily calls killing it. Still riding on a cushion of about 22%, so I plan on keeping whatever is left after I get out Friday.

Now Dow theory kicks in and says sell. Not sure whether to really believe it, but at this point I am in capital preservation, cuz my cushion is disappearing. Birchtree talked about this theory a week or so ago. Really am getting schooled in downtrends, and why one needs to be more patient on the sidelines. A totally different animal than uptrends.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={A7562248-7392-4891-8FDE-79619507C729}

So I wish you a very Happy Thanksgiving, and I thank God everyday for food, shelter and clothing, health, ambition and friends!

 

[Steadygain]

Uptrend, it is amazing how much we have in common and thank you for explaining things so well. The past few months have taken all of us by surprize - especially those with strong timing streaks. When the markets were down in both the Spring and Summer I had it well under control. I think all of us were expecting a decent rally towards the end and our sentiments probably fueled each other along. Anyway, I'm with ya brother - and in fact I'm already there. It is definately a good feeling being in safety when things are going down the drain. You (we) will still end the year with a fantastic profit. I really don't think the bimontly trades will have that much of an impact over the long run and will probably make us plan all the harder - but likely in a sounder style. Had I not followed Ebb in 8/07 I wouldn't have nearly what I do - but that month is far from typical. Well take care my friend.

 

[Uptrend]

For Friday Nov 23 bailing to G. Hoping for a little I rebound to hang on, and reduce my 4th Q loss a little. I don't like what is ahead including $100 oil, xxx billion write down news every day, and scary technical conditions on the charts. For those that say bah humbug, it is worth noting that the contrarian signals do not do well in a downtrend. That is why I think that the sentiment survey is having problems - which is normally very good - but is down -2.74 since 8/31 and most of that since Nov 1. This is not about guessing against the market - but more about a downtrend. I am not sure where we might bottom, but every floor is being busted. We now solidly below the 200 dma on all the charts including the EFA. The retracement down now looks to be a lot deeper than I initially had thought probable. So, I will be waiting patiently on the sidelines for a play that looks promising.

 

[Birchtree]

From my experiences in investing when ever one starts to feel good about the situation trouble is already there just not recognizable. I much prefer the constant knot in the gut - that's when you know you are on the right track. I seldom try to evade those feelings - for some reason I like being hit by the train. This bull market is unappreciated with low participation - that's just the way it should happen. In 2000 you couldn't find a bear any where and you remember what happened. Bears are my friends even when they cause me pain - I collect on the collateral damage they leave behind.

 

[Uptrend]

This rally probably will not hold up on Monday. Volume was too light. NYSE 489,237,000 and Nasdaq 671,408,000. This kind of volume is usually traded in the first 90 minutes of a day, and I usually don't make a decision on market direction until at least 500,000,000 is traded. We could have a little more bounce on Monday, but I see more doiwnside.

 

[phillyfed]

This rally probably will not hold up on Monday. Volume was too light. NYSE 489,237,000 and Nasdaq 671,408,000. This kind of volume is usually traded in the first 90 minutes of a day, and I usually don't make a decision on market direction until at least 500,000,000 is traded. We could have a little more bounce on Monday, but I see more doiwnside.

Thats the way I see it Uptrend. Good day to sell some on strength IMO with todays pathetic volume and see how the big boys trade it on Monday. There was pretty heavy volume on Tuesday and Wed., considering its a holiday week and I didnt see any urgency by the players to confirm a bottom. It was more of the same sell on strength.

 

[presskh]

Thats the way I see it Uptrend. Good day to sell some on strength IMO with todays pathetic volume and see how the big boys trade it on Monday. There was pretty heavy volume on Tuesday and Wed., considering its a holiday week and I didnt see any urgency by the players to confirm a bottom. It was more of the same sell on strength.

Agree with both of you. Unfortunately, I was in the G fund today, but was also in the G fund for the big drop on Wednesday - so, we effectively just gained back today what was lost on Wednesday. Unless there is some positive news over the weekend, I don't see a followthrough rally Monday. Of course, the wild card in all of this could be a "surprise" Fed rate cut - however, unless market conditions deteriorate very rapidly, I don't see that happening either. In the mean time, I'm up about 10% for the year and, for the time being, am content to just hang on the sidelines collecting my weekly pennies and grab some quick one-day gains on market bounces following large selloffs.

 

[RunningFool]

Isn't it time for the afternoon sell off and plunge to negative territory??
Maybe not. Just another quirk in this insane market. Does anyone have a handle on this market, seemingly everyone has lost a chunk of change on this one. Good trading or DCAing to all.

 

[presskh]

Isn't it time for the afternoon sell off and plunge to negative territory??
Maybe not. Just another quirk in this insane market. Does anyone have a handle on this market, seemingly everyone has lost a chunk of change on this one. Good trading or DCAing to all.

I think the market is already closed, due to a shorten trading day.

 

[RunningFool]

That could be a solution to our trading problem just close the markets at noon every day, before they have a chance to go down!!:nuts::nuts: