Uptrend's Account Talk

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hessian said:
Uptrend,
Another Nice Post!
Just FYI, myself and others, even Show-me, mentioned your post, in other threads - particularly the M&A pattern (which I agree may be setting up).
And also of your warning, to which, I'll confirm: may be sweet, also confirm -to be careful, it may be short & quick.
- I have to wait now, but will see how things shape up on Monday before noon!

Know that folks are really appreciating your posts!;)
VR
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Good points Hessian, Just wanted to let you know Uptrend, I appreciate your posts also. The more information we get from each other is good in our decision making processes. Thanks! :)
 
Thanks everyone for the kindness.

The S&P futures tonight suggest that the S&P may go to 1427 tomorrow. Recall that is in the 1424-1430 gap window in the late Nov fall. IMO that is the first resistance area of a little relief rally. Looking at the S&P chart, the probable resistance levels would extend from about 1424 -1430, and then another pretty good one at approximately 1445. I don't think there is much chance we go above this before we roll and dive; or should I say die. The next slide will be a shorter's dream.

So, if we rally to the 1425 area tomorrow, that is good enough for me. I am going to be conservative this time because the downside is real, and will come hard and fast. Just look at some of the leaders on the board that got creamed on last Friday. Friday was a warm-up for the big fall ahead. Don't be fooled, the Fed can't save the market, just delay the pain.

Also, that TSP Fed Register frequent trader restriction notice takes effect tomorrow, and some of us (I expect me) may get a letter telling us to stop trading, or having to send in the trade by mail. I am not taking that chance for a curb. Could be the "real house of pain". So if the rebound pans out tomorrow to the 1425 area on the S&P, I am selling and going 50% G/50% F. I expect to hold this position for up to 2 months, unless I can be assurred that I can trade and not get trapped inside the market.

Also, I am not going to post what I would do, if we could trade more. That is silly. I will only discuss strategy within the guidelines that the TSP board makes final and the amount of trades they specify, despite MO.
 
Uptrend said:
Friday was a warm-up for the big fall ahead. Don't be fooled, the Fed can't save the market, just delay the pain.
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I totally, agree, the problem runs deeper than anything the FED can do by dropping rates. The BIG question is...does the FED do what is best for the markets LONG TERM, or cave into short term political pressure to improve the economy? Judging from the reaction they got last time, I would say they might over compensate and cut 50, IMO. Although that will simply forstall the pain, we all know that there will be a positive reaction, at least in the short term. A rally could last longer than expected as well. So, I would be looking to get into stocks at a low point before the FED meeting, and play a rally thereafter.

Corepuncher
 
Corepuncher:

You could be right on. I agree a 50 basis point cut will probably rally the market a little bit; especially if the Fed makes an announcement before the FOMC meeting near the end of the month.

The futures today still indicate the S&P may close around 1427 which is a 15 point or 1% gain. This is good enough for me, so I will probably go and sit on the sidelines. the way I made 23% in the first three quarters of 2007 was to take a little and get out, and wait for the next entry point. Normally I would wait 1-3 trading days longer, but I am definately scared of this market right know, and am preserving capital.
 
Uptrend - Thanks for your input over the past few months and especially this year. You have proven yourself to me and I even advised a dear friend to pay closer attention to you and less attention to a system that has been failing miserably since 10/07. I hope for her sake (and the sake of many others - including me) that you do keep us posted on your plans.

Last Friday I watched Bush talk about the soundness of our economy. Working in psychiatry - body language and facial expressions tell me way more than what is actually spoken - if someone is trying to hide the truth. I've never seen Bush look so grave - so troubled - so fearful or in agony - it was awful; and his financial representitives sat there with him looking like they're on top of the world. They did a much better job of looking good. Job reports are terrible and the news just keeps getting worse - but then again anyone keeping up with the various sectors that dominate our economy have known this is the inevitable course - and can not be avoided. Another big rate cut will do nothing to correct and turn around the underlying problems - and if China gets annoyed with us then our circumstances could become far worse than they are already. I think you're right in moving to safety mode - as the big R seems like the only long term solution.

You really seem to know your stuff and I can't help but admire your thinking. Thanks again for all your insight.
 
Uptrend said:
Corepuncher:

the way I made 23% in the first three quarters of 2007 was to take a little and get out, and wait for the next entry point. Normally I would wait 1-3 trading days longer, but I am definately scared of this market right know, and am preserving capital.
Click to expand...

Interesting strategy!
 
Uptrend said:
the way I made 23% in the first three quarters of 2007 was to take a little and get out, and wait for the next entry point.
Click to expand...

LOL...Your quote just sounds like me for the last umpteen months...but it always seemed like when I got out with 1% or so, it was ALWAYS too early and I wished I had stayed in longer! Maybe this time it will work out better.

I truly believe that a lot of the "SMART MONEY" is actually "DUMB MONEY". They are short-sighted, have tunnel vision, and are too reactionary. Therefore, we can actually use that to our advantage and stay in rallys just a *BIT* longer than your senses would advise!
 
Wow the S&P just retreated to the support level around 1409 in a flash. Could this be the Big money trying to leverage a rate cut now? IMO an flirting with danger, but if this stays flat, may stay 50% C for another day. F on the rise again.
 
Well, here is the latest S&P action

View attachment 3046

Which way will the market go??

Here is my theory:

Monday - Wednesday The PPI comes out Tuesday and the CPI Wednesday. They are essentially flat or elevated a little bit. The market interprets that as bearish and we go down and break 1375, which is around the March 07 lows (See bottom line on the chart).

The next trading day after a close below 1375 is a confirmation day of a bearish move, and the market would normally go a lot lower because there is no chart support. But wait; Ben Bernake and his PP Team come to the rescue and and Fed cuts by 50 basis points. And yes this is next week before the meeting at the end of the month. More Fed market tinkering.

Elliot wave theory also confirms a little upside. But look at the upward resistance. We have chart resistance, as well as the 20 and 50 day moving averages in that order. The market would probably not get past 1465, before a new plunge.

So I will be looking to get ino the market, as soon as we near the bounce point, and IMHO is 1375. Will be a short and mighty bounce; with a big one day Fed engineerrd move.
 
I reversed my position and went 50 S/50 I today. Here is why (See SPY chart).

View attachment 3070

You can see the downtrend channel, and then the market going sideways for the last 6 trading days. In fact almost all of those days have indecision candlesticks. I drew on a possible small bounce upchannel, but you can see it does not go too far until it hits all kinds of resistance. On the bottom of the chart you can see the slow sto still going down as a trend, but the short term coming up.

So here is why I favor an little more up:
Elliot wave theory says there has to be an upwave. We have completed the M pattern and are starting the A Some folks will argue how far the up-leg of the "A" will go before diving again.

Market is too bearish (contrarian principle).

Options X week, and the big boys will try and squeeze the puts.

Write downs old news. Market looks forward.

Could be surprise Fed rate cut any day; especially if the CPI Wed comes out near a flat 0.2% M/M change. Non-inflationary means green light for rate cut. If rate cut is a surprise, and is 0.50 basis points, the market could go right through some of the resistance.

Intel and other big tech 4th Q earnings reports are probably good.

Add all ingredients and mix. Out pops Buy Buy Buy
 
I tend to agree with you.

Last weeks initial jobless claims were way down, only 322K. A possible sign that the previous months job report was a bit overdone?

Hoping for stronger than expected retail sales this morning...only 1 hr to go! :toung:

I sure hope the PPI/CPI are lower than expected, those are KEY! Also a bit uneasy about the housing numbers later this week. Feel people are waiting for lower prices.

Citibank came out with an 18.1 B writedown...about as expected, although lower than the 24 B I was hearing a couple days ago. This should be old news, except to the dumb money I guess. S&P futures only down -5.9 this morning...which amazingly seems good!
 
Down we go! The futures:

S&P 500 1,265.10 -60.20 1,327.50 1,331.60 1,256.00 11:29

The S&P chart:
View attachment 3131

As you can see, 1265 is not that far from the next support area at 1250. Quite a drop!! Don't think the Fed can help. Coorporate balance sheet deception won't help. Looks like panic selling; but capitulation? IMHO, Nah!! We might get a bounce, but will still land hard.

View attachment 3132
 
i have been right after all....its a fre fall...also terry salvage sez to be out of bonds...they are next.....of course thats jus her opinion but i dont own any so it doesnt apply to me:confused:
 
Mr recognizer said:
i have been right after all....its a fre fall...also terry salvage sez to be out of bonds...they are next.....of course thats jus her opinion but i dont own any so it doesnt apply to me:confused:
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If you have nothing to gain or lose in the current market...why are you bothering us? Oh yeah. You must be short. And want to make more $. If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all. Are you even in the tsp?
 
wv-girl said:
If you have nothing to gain or lose in the current market...why are you bothering us? Oh yeah. You must be short. And want to make more $. If you don't have anything nice to say, don't say anything at all. Are you even in the tsp?
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yes 100% g since 14th jan...ty kindly for your nice words as i have a right to my own opinion like everyone else...dont be so rude.just because i dont see things your way.......:D
 
Mr recognizer said:
yes 100% g since 14th jan...ty kindly for your nice words as i have a right to my own opinion like everyone else...dont be so rude.just because i dont see things your way.......:D
Click to expand...
You are right. you do have the right to your opinion. As you have told use many times. I just don't like the way you are constantly shoving it down our throats.:D
 
After a 3% loss on 3 Jan. I had seen enough. Down 10% since last October high. Been in the 'G' since. I struggled in deciding to go to cash but glad I did when I did. Once I see the bottom, if that's truly what it is, I will start to DCA back in to re-establish my position. Playing the market now is like playing with a loaded gun. Not for the weak at heart. :suspicious:

Geaux
 
The market reversal appears to be a bounce, and probably will not sustain. I looked at the 1987 crash black Monday when the market fell 22%, and that was followed by a 3 day bounce, followed by a 3 day down before again taking off to the upside for a longer rally. Since I am only 25% into I, will probably exit on Thursday, and wait for the next 2-3 day reversal, before trying to play a better rally. My expectation is that it will start late next week ner the end of the month.

These bear type markets will draw you in with a large trader buy program and then crush you wilth the huge automatic sell program.
 
Uptrend said:
The market reversal appears to be a bounce, and probably will not sustain. I looked at the 1987 crash black Monday when the market fell 22%, and that was followed by a 3 day bounce, followed by a 3 day down before again taking off to the upside for a longer rally. Since I am only 25% into I, will probably exit on Thursday, and wait for the next 2-3 day reversal, before trying to play a better rally. My expectation is that it will start late next week ner the end of the month.

These bear type markets will draw you in with a large trader buy program and then crush you wilth the huge automatic sell program.
Click to expand...
Thanks Uptrend, for your posts.
I didn't make any strong move in prior to yesterday, and therefore was wondering about making entry today, but was very nervous about it, basically for reasons you wrote. I was thinking almost same thing this morning. Its not today, rather, its the next couple days that concern me, IMO). So I think safety is best play for today - appreciate having your perspective, its like added confirmation, for me! ;)
VR
 
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