Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

The ISE sentiment index uses the put/call value of opening long transactions to calculate market direction. Investors find this a useful tool. See:

http://www.ise.com/WebForm/viewPage.aspx?categoryId=126&header3=true&menu0=true&link1=true

What I notice for equities, is that when the ISE gets much above the 10 dma you have a rally. In other words, more puts in relationship to calls, and the index goes up. (It is easier to see if you uncheck some of the all other moving averages except for the 10 day, and also make sure you select equities You can also plug in the time period you want to see). Notice that when the ISE is above the 10 dma, it corresponds to our recent mini rallies. Also notice the slope of the 10 dma. In early Jan the slope was gong down and the market was going down, in late Jan-early Feb the slope was going up and the market was going up, and we see that the slope is down again. So ma going down means bullish, which should be bearish for stocks from a sentiment standpoint.

This also shows me we are at a indecision cross-road because the ISE is creeping up again above the 10 dma. That could mean a little more upside first, but is too much risk for me. IMO trust the downward 10 dma slope and stay cash or bonds.

 

[Guest2]

Squalebear:

Thanks for the AGG after hours volume look. Just thought it was odd, should have looked but didn't. Either someone will get killed, or they know something? Hoping for a big up anyway!

Uptrend:
It's I who should thank you, your a valuable resource and I'm learning
everyday. Being an "old dog" and still learning "new tricks" (go figure).
Anyway, thanks for sharing,,,,bones are always welcomed ! (Ruff) !
:laugh:

 

[hessian]

Hey UpTrend,
I'll just add, DITTO, to what squealbear said. (And congrats on the 2nd gemstone -about time, well deserved!). Regarding the F-Fund/AGG, highly recommend you review 350Zs AcctTalk thread (if you haven't already) -he put us all onto the Bond Insurers issue, and continues with updates as this saga plays out. He's got a wealth of knowedge on this, there in his posts, including recent/Thursday's Congressional hearings on subject (archive link there) -and his personal TSP allocation now (avoiding F)! Anyway, like you noted, "F" is "tricky" right now -IMO timing is key for being in/out of F now -almost like being in/out of the stock funds!
Best wishes.
VR

 

[Uptrend]

Well the AGG is not playing out very well for me. Money flowing out of bonds into gold and oil. However, they may be short term plays, and perhaps some shorting going on as well. The $TNX closed above the 50 dma, but we will need another day to confirm. If no confirmation, I will stay in bonds for the near term. I can't get excited about stocks. in this downtrend. I am still thinking risk adversion will drive invoetors back into bonds, as soon the the market breaks to the downside out of the pennant formation. It is not uncommon to have a large swing in bonds, only to give it back the next trading day. We shall see. That is why investing is so exciting; knowledge, suspense, contrarian, luck, despair, oh xxxx, hope

 

[Uptrend]

Here is the F fund situation. First the AGG:

View attachment 3354

It looks to me that it is sitting on support (see line with S)

Now the $TNX:

View attachment 3355

You can see resistance just above, and 50 dma and other support below that are converging on the same line more or less.

I don't think the F is a particularily good play at present, but am trying to stay at 2 IFT/month. Hoping for a little pullback in yields. I don't trust equities, and think we will break down in a few days, even if the market rises a little first. Am hoping for some risk adversion to bonds when the breakdown is in progress or a little before, and an increase in prices. That may be 1-2 weeks away, but who knows? The market is swinging wildly right now.

 

[Uptrend]

Bonds are having a nice rally today. Stock market has it's wheels spinning, but not going anywhere. I is having a good day.

 

[Tomncath]

Hey Uptrend,

You've given us a few new fishing tricks the week (ISE and Inderarb). Any other useful freebies you can share with us newbies

Tom

 

[Uptrend]

For sentiment, as of Friday, the ISE was below its 10 dma. That is a llitle on the bearish side, so I am going to trust it.

View attachment 3374

On the chart, you can see the market decision space. There is a mini head and shoulder pattern. The right side is kind of drawn out, as the market has been trading sideways around the 20 dma. When we go through 1325 we will go dwon, probably fast. Also, there are 3 solid hits of the 1325, after the breakdown below it. Traders usually expect the breakdown to come on the 4th hit, and that is also confirmed by the H&S in this chart. The market could go to the 50 dma around 1390, or a little higher first. Since Jan 22 we have an Elliot wave pattern ABC after the primary 5, and the C wave should be higher than the A wave. The A wave is the top of the head. I have drawn a line through the right shoulder, showing how high the C wave could go. My convictions are low however, so I am going to stay F for now.

 

[lindalyc]

Uptrend:
would you please send the link where we can find the premium or spread? I am having hard time to figure it out. It says at cnbc, but I can't find the right screen (page).
thanks in advance.


"http://www.indexarb.com/

Based on the premium, this site will tell you for free when to buy or short. Now isn't that cool! "

 

[Uptrend]

Here is the page

http://www.indexarb.com/

 

[lindalyc]

thanks.

but still, I couldn't find today's premium on that website, which only tell you what range the premium falling into sell or buy.

what is today's premium? long or short?

 

[Tomncath]

Hope I'm not overstepping my bounds here. I contacted them several days ago and here's the response:


We provide the fair values and buy/sell triggers for the PREMs each day but we do not provide the real-time values during the day. Most traders have their own data source for these. If you do not have a data provider, a good and free source of premiums for the S&P 500, Dow Jones Ind. Avg., and NASDAQ 100 is www.prophet.net , whose links are:

- S&P 500 http://www.prophet.net/analyze/chartstream.jsp?symbol=$SP-PREM

- Dow Jones Ind. Avg. http://www.prophet.net/analyze/chartstream.jsp?symbol=$DJ-PREM

- NASDAQ 100 http://www.prophet.net/analyze/chartstream.jsp?symbol=$ND-PREM

 

[Uptrend]

Hope I'm not overstepping my bounds here. I contacted them several days ago and here's the response:


We provide the fair values and buy/sell triggers for the PREMs each day but we do not provide the real-time values during the day. Most traders have their own data source for these. If you do not have a data provider, a good and free source of premiums for the S&P 500, Dow Jones Ind. Avg., and NASDAQ 100 is [URL="http://www.prophet.net/quote"]www.prophet.net[/URL]/

Thanks Tomncath I don't trade PREMs myself, but is good info if you want to day trade. Using the spreads and the charts could be a winning combination!

The prophet website has real time emini futures contracts you can view under futures. You can look at these prior to market opening and get a sense of where the market might be going.

Being that the market is somewhat oversold, and the $TNX is at the top of a longterm trading channel, I am going to stick with F for now, hoping for some risk adversion help bonds pick up speed. The inflation numbers might not help however. Staying at 2 trades/month. Patience is hard.

 

[Uptrend]

For those of you with any money left after the downturn, you might want to get in on the ground floor and watch for these consolidations in 2008:

1.) Hale Business Systems, Mary Kay Cosmetics, Fuller Brush, and W. R. Grace Co. Will merge and become Hale, Mary, Fuller, Grace.

2.) PolygramRecords, Warner Bros., and ZestaCrackers join forces and become:
Poly, Warner Cracker.

3.) 3M will merge with Goodyear and become:
MMMGood.

4. ZippoManufacturing, AudiMotors, Dofasco, and Dakota Mining will merge and become:
ZipAudiDoDa .

5. FedEx is expected to join its competitor, UPS, and become:
FedUP.

6. Fairchild Electronics and Honeywell Computers will become:
Fairwell Honeychild.

7. Grey Poupon and Docker Pants are expected to become: PouponPants.

8. Knotts Berry Farm and the National Organization of Women will become:
Knott NOW!

And finally....

9. Victoria 's Secret and Smith &Wesson will merge under the new name:
TittyTittyBangBang

 

[alevin]

:cheesy: Where's my broker? I gotta get in on some of these! Good post Uptrend.

 

[southbeachrat]

LOVE it!! Your post made my day.

 

[caymanbrac12]

For those of you with any money left after the downturn, you might want to get in on the ground floor and watch for these consolidations in 2008:

9. Victoria 's Secret and Smith &Wesson will merge under the new name:
TittyTittyBangBang

Well it's at least better than Charmin or Scott's toilet paper merging with Victoria Secret. What the hell would that be????

$hitty$hittybangbang

 

[Uptrend]

Getting beyond the mergers, tomorrow may be a good day to buy into stocks.

View attachment 3401

I know the chart looks busy, but you can see an upward trending trading channel that we have not reached yet. Today we were having consolidation and moving down toward the 20 dma, after touching the 50 dma yesterday. IMO the market is gathering strength to blast through the 50 dma and then to the 1400 area of the early Feb top. We might be able to even get to the middle of the channel at about 1420 to where the next resistance is located.

A second reason I think we will move up is because we have not completed wave C of the ABC correction against the grain, after the 5 wave down bearish pattern (EWT). Therefore, the upside is favored at least along the lower trading channel line and perhaps further into it.

A third reason is that sentiment is fairly nuetral at the present, and a lot of negative talk. That is great for a rally. But really, you can't argue with EWT, and the C wave is not finished.

So, if as the futures suggest that the market gets to the 20 dma at around 1360 tomorrow, I Will IFT to 100% C. The financials have been hit hard enough lets the big corps lead the way. The 20 dma is key -we must close above tomorrow.

 

[airlift]

Uptrend,

Where do you look before 12 noon Eastern time to see if the cash futures suggest that the SPX could close near to 1360? Bloomberg market futures? Any better site? Thanks in advance.

 

[Uptrend]

You can see the e mini futures contracts on www.prophet.net and then quotes - futures - minis S&P March 08 contract

Right now S&P at 1353. I need to see some improvement towards 1360 to play.