tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Stocks opened higher this morning but are slipping back and testing yesterday's lows. Small caps are lagging and the I-fund is closest to the flat line, while the US broader indices continue to hover below their all time highs, trying to hold above key support.




Bonds and the F-fund are leading this morning as yields fall, pushing BND to a new high.




AI is the key headline and right now the stock market seems to be weeding out which industries and companies are going to be negatively impacted by the advancement of AI capabilities.

Seasonality turns more bearish next week.

Oil is down, while gold, silver and bitcoin are relatively flat.

 

[tsptalk]

Testing 1, 2, 3. Testing...

 

[tsptalk]

 

[Greensboro]

Stocks opened higher this morning but are slipping back and testing yesterday's lows. Small caps are lagging and the I-fund is closest to the flat line, while the US broader indices continue to hover below their all time highs, trying to hold above key support.

View attachment 71649


Bonds and the F-fund are leading this morning as yields fall, pushing BND to a new high.

View attachment 71650


AI is the key headline and right now the stock market seems to be weeding out which industries and companies are going to be negatively impacted by the advancement of AI capabilities.

Seasonality turns more bearish next week.

Oil is down, while gold, silver and bitcoin are relatively flat.

On the I-Fund. . . Typically administrations want a strong dollar which makes imports cheaper for the American consumer. A weak dollar is a feature of this administration, not a bug. The game plan seems to be that a weaker dollar will help other countries have a better exchange rate with purchasing American products which will help American companies sell more, and theoretically help with job creation. A weaker dollar will make imports more expensive and American made products more competitive domestically. The trade imbalance is a big deal to this administration. The American consumer may pay a higher price for consumer goods, but the focus seems to be primarily on American companies, not the American consumer (except for theoretical job creation from more domestic production). The I-Fund may continue with its winning ways given this intentional goal.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are rebounding from Thursday's sell off in early Friday trading, after a better than expected CPI Report.

Yields are falling on the data and that is helping small caps take the lead this morning, but it's a long day.



The S-fund's DWCPF chart found support yesterday at the 50-day average, and today it is bouncing off that level.

Given the size of Thursday's decline, a partial retracement isn't really telling us too much yet, as the bears have plenty of time to kill this rally, but the fact that the rebound is on good economic data, it has a chance to hold, but don't count the bears out yet.

Gold, silver and crypto are up, and oil is flat.

 

[tsptalk]

Can it break back above the 50-day EMA?

 

[tsptalk]

A weak start to the shortened week as stocks are selling off and testing some previous lows. Nothing is broken yet but where did the dip buyers go? There's plenty of time left in the day, but this week starts the more bearish half of February.




The I-fund is lagging as the dollar shot up to fill in an open gap and the ACWX chart is now testing the bottom of its long ascending trading channel.



A gap was opened this morning on the UUP dollar ETF chart, while it filled another gap from Feb 9th. It is also testing its 50-day average again.

The market leading, economically sensitive Dow Transportation Index is up this morning.

Yields are down slightly, and the strong dollar has gold, silver, bitcoin, and oil all down this morning.

 

[TommyIV]

Nothing is broken yet but where did the dip buyers go?

They must have missed their alarms this morning , but they're back in action. The S&P 500 and DWCPF have since reversed direction and are now dancing around Friday's closing price.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are bouncing off the bottom of recent ranges after some better than expected housing and mortgage data. The indices seem to be coiling up for something big. There's both bullish and bearish indications making a tough call on the direction for the next big move, but neither the bulls, nor the bears have giving up yet.



Yields are also rebounding on the housing data after filling in the open gaps on both the 10 and 30-year Treasury yield charts. This will give the F-fund some trouble.

Oil, gold, and silver are all up. Bitcoin is flat.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks opened sharply lower this morning but they have been backing and filling the overhead open gap. Same for the 10-year yield and dollar, which both opened higher but are backing and filling on the downside.

The S&P 500 opened back below the support of the 50-day average and the bottom of the channel, and testing them now.



The price of oil broke out above a bull flag this morning as the threat of another conflict with Iran is heating up.

Wal-Mart is up after reporting earnings. Who needs Mag 7 when you have a 10-year chart like this?




Jobless claims were better than expected, but existing home sales missed estimates.

Gold and silver are up this morning, and bitcoin is flat.

 

[tsptalk]

I had heard that there would be no way the SCOTUS would rule on tariffs before Tuesday's State of the Union Address. That was wrong. They just ruled against the tariffs (not unexpected based on betting markets.)

The market doesn't seem to know exactly what to do. It popped, dropped and now it seems to be sector by sector, as investors get more details and figure out which ones will benefit.

 

[tsptalk]

Markets are firming up. Bond yields are up? Interesting considering this should ease inflation concerns, plus Q4 GDP came in much lower than expected. I suppose this means growth ill improve, which would warrant higher yields.

 

[tsptalk]

After a rough night of futures trading, stocks opened just slightly lower this morning, but they are struggling now. The churn between support and resistance continues. Nothing has has broken yet, but the charts continue to show some weakness.

A positive catalyst may be needed to help push the indices to another leg higher. Nvidia reports earnings on Wednesday evening and it could be the turning point the market needs after the recent AI sell off - or it could put the dagger in a market that has been deteriorating in recent weeks.




Yields are falling and bonds rising. It could be related to the easing of inflation concerns after the SCOTUS decision on tariffs. It could be because of economic concerns. Or it could be a safety play as the US and Iran continue to negotiate but inch closer to conflict.




Gold, silver, and oil are up this morning. Bitcoin is down.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are choppy but positive as they try to rebound from Monday's big losses.

The charts are trying to hold onto, or cling to, their recent lows.




The Nasdaq 100 has been swimming below the moving average in a bear flag-like formation. This looks vulnerable, and Nvidia's earnings Wednesday evening may make or break the chart.

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P 500 is putting up some solid follow through to Tuesday's positive reversal, but it is really just filling the void in the top of the range. A gap up open means potential backing and filling, and of course Nvidia's earnings after the bell could tell us a lot about the AI trade and whether it is ready to stop the bleeding and help the consolidating indices finally breakout.



Small caps (S-fund) are lagging after a strong open, but could have been just filling in the gap. We'll see. There's plenty of resistance near 2600.

As I mentioned in today's commentary, and I saw it posted here in the forum, we had a 6th Hindenburg Omen signal yesterday, and that's concerning. It does not always lead to a dramatic pullback, but many major declines have been preceded by a series of these signals.

Gold, silver and bitcoin are all up this morning. Oil is flat.

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting start to the day. Nvidia posted strong earnings, and the initial reaction was positive, but it flattened out by the time overnight trading was completed. The futures were down, but bottomed around midnight ET however, as soon as the opening bell rang, the sellers came out in force. There has been a bounce off the lows this morning already and today's close could be of huge significance.

Nvidia is down about 4.5% as I write this, and looking for support (see chart below.) That is dragging the S&P 500 down this morning.



The weakness seems odd and suspicious, but the only thing that matters (to me) is if the chart can hold up, or if it breaks below support.

That looks like a bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern - if the right shoulder can hold up.




Oil is up, while gold, silver and bitcoin are down in early trading.

Tomorrow is the last day (before noon ET) to make a February interfund transfer.

 

[tsptalk]

The futures were up but peaked about 4:30 a.m. ET last night, when they started to pull back. It's very early, but ironically the hotter than expected PPI data didn't have much more impact then whatever happened at 4:30. At least so far.



So higher inflation data - that should mean interest rates would be flat or go higher, right? Well, the bond market is pushing yields lower this morning and the 10-year is below 4% for the first time since November.




Again, very early, but the S&P 500 (C-fund) and DWCPF (S-fund) are back closer to the bottom of their ranges and looking for support. Notice where yields and the S&P were in late November.



What is it going to take to break these trading ranges?

The I-fund is barely down at the moment.