tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Stocks opened higher this morning but are slipping back and testing yesterday's lows. Small caps are lagging and the I-fund is closest to the flat line, while the US broader indices continue to hover below their all time highs, trying to hold above key support.




Bonds and the F-fund are leading this morning as yields fall, pushing BND to a new high.




AI is the key headline and right now the stock market seems to be weeding out which industries and companies are going to be negatively impacted by the advancement of AI capabilities.

Seasonality turns more bearish next week.

Oil is down, while gold, silver and bitcoin are relatively flat.

 

[tsptalk]

Testing 1, 2, 3. Testing...

 

[tsptalk]

 

[Greensboro]

Stocks opened higher this morning but are slipping back and testing yesterday's lows. Small caps are lagging and the I-fund is closest to the flat line, while the US broader indices continue to hover below their all time highs, trying to hold above key support.

View attachment 71649


Bonds and the F-fund are leading this morning as yields fall, pushing BND to a new high.

View attachment 71650


AI is the key headline and right now the stock market seems to be weeding out which industries and companies are going to be negatively impacted by the advancement of AI capabilities.

Seasonality turns more bearish next week.

Oil is down, while gold, silver and bitcoin are relatively flat.

On the I-Fund. . . Typically administrations want a strong dollar which makes imports cheaper for the American consumer. A weak dollar is a feature of this administration, not a bug. The game plan seems to be that a weaker dollar will help other countries have a better exchange rate with purchasing American products which will help American companies sell more, and theoretically help with job creation. A weaker dollar will make imports more expensive and American made products more competitive domestically. The trade imbalance is a big deal to this administration. The American consumer may pay a higher price for consumer goods, but the focus seems to be primarily on American companies, not the American consumer (except for theoretical job creation from more domestic production). The I-Fund may continue with its winning ways given this intentional goal.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are rebounding from Thursday's sell off in early Friday trading, after a better than expected CPI Report.

Yields are falling on the data and that is helping small caps take the lead this morning, but it's a long day.



The S-fund's DWCPF chart found support yesterday at the 50-day average, and today it is bouncing off that level.

Given the size of Thursday's decline, a partial retracement isn't really telling us too much yet, as the bears have plenty of time to kill this rally, but the fact that the rebound is on good economic data, it has a chance to hold, but don't count the bears out yet.

Gold, silver and crypto are up, and oil is flat.

 

[tsptalk]

Can it break back above the 50-day EMA?