tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

The market is giving back some of Wednesday's historic gains as it takes care of some backing and filling in old gap areas, or backing off from broken support which may try to become resistance.



Here's the QQQ (Nasdaq 100) and it made its way all that way back up to its 300-day average yesterday, but that took a lot of energy so it's backing off a bit today.




The bond market is down but it seems more stable today. The 10-year yield is slightly lower.

The CPI came in on the cool side, which is good news for inflation, but could be pointing toward economic weakness.

As JTH pointed out, it's not usually a straight ride up after a giant 9% rally. https://forum.tsptalk.com/threads/warning-top-5-daily-gainers.49675/

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are wavering early as bond yields continue to move higher while the dollar falls.



There was a strong 10-year Treasury Bond auction yesterday but yields keep rising as Japan and China sell US bonds.

This is troublesome so watch for something new to happen over the weekend.

 

[exnavyew]

Stocks are wavering early as bond yields continue to move higher while the dollar falls.

View attachment 68809

There was a strong 10-year Treasury Bond auction yesterday but yields keep rising as Japan and China sell US bonds.

This is troublesome so watch for something new to happen over the weekend.

Inside the bond market’s $800 billion ‘murder mystery.’ Here’s why the basis trade could be a time bomb—and what the Fed can do to stop it​

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/inside-bond-market-800-billion-100000711.html

 

[tsptalk]

Busy morning... sorry no earlier post.

The market gapped up at the open, but as always, Monday gaps are hard to trust, and the gap has been filled already. Here's where the indices need to stabilize because we are seeing another test of over head resistance and so far it has held.

A gap fill and hold is a good sign, but resistance has to be taken out.

 

[tsptalk]

So far this morning has seen a more stable start and the VIX is trying to confirm that by moving below 30 for the first time in a couple of weeks.




The S&P 500 chart is back near yesterday' highs with a little bit more room (~65 points) before it challenges that 300 day average again, then there's 100 - 150 points up for grabs if the bulls can power through some of that immediate resistance. It's a pretty big pivot point for the market that is still dancing on the bear market fence.



The PMO indicator is about to cross back above its moving average. It is usually a good sign for the intermediate term, but it also crosses when its a little overbought and can often precede some profit taking.

Again, this is a pretty classic pivot point.

 

[tsptalk]

... the VIX is trying to confirm that by moving below 30 for the first time in a couple of weeks.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1911905236748231024

 

[JTH]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1911905236748231024

Maybe it's just me, it seems there's a significant drop in participation.

 

[tsptalk]

Participation? As in trading volume, number of investors, etc.?

 

[JTH]

Participation? As in trading volume, number of investors, etc.?

Yea, SPX lowest ATR of 13 sessions and volume of 10. Reminds me of the eye of a hurricane.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are struggling this morning after some negative earnings related news from Nvidia (they don't report until May).

Shares of Nvidia lost 6% after the chip giant said it will post a $5.5 billion quarterly charge related to exporting its H20 graphics processing units to China and other nations.

The news comes just as the charts challenge overhead resistance and potential start a journey down to a test of the lows. Or this could be a pre-holiday reversal, something we often see before a major three day weekend. Yes, you may have to work but the stock market is closed on Friday for Good Friday so it is a market holiday so we have to be cognizant of the possibility that this one of those pre-holiday reversals that may reverse back after the weekend.



Small caps are holding up a little better in early trading but you can see the chart is failing at resistance, which shouldn't be too surprising in a down trend below the moving averages. The lines are drawn.

The I-fund is actually slightly positive as the dollar slides lower.

Gold is up big this morning, oil is up, bitcoin is slightly positive, and bond yields are ticking higher and trying to hold at the 200-day average.

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting start to this holiday shortened week as the Dow is down 400-points, yet the broader markets opened higher with 4 stocks up for every one down on the NYSE and it's about 3 to 2 positive on the Nasdaq.

UnitedHealth Care (UNH) is down almost 20% and that is accounting for about 300 of the Dow's 400 point loss. It is the heaviest weighted stock in the Dow.

Small caps are leading large caps in the early going and the I-fund is up 1% despite a small gain in the dollar.

Gold, oil, and bitcoin are all fairly flat in the first half hour, and the 10-year yield is up a tick.

 

[tsptalk]

Wow, crazy morning from every angle. We had a server upgrade this morning so we experienced several technical issues, and then of course the market is selling off again.

Just getting a second to check in here and look at some charts.

I see yields were up big early, but have backed down. The VIX is about 34.

Small caps are keeping pace with the large cap losses, and the dollar is down sharply again so the I-fund's loss is much less (0.53%) compared to the US losses of over 2%.

Trump is trying to shame Powell into cutting rates, but something tells me that's not the way to get that done.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are snapping back after yesterday's sell off, although the late positive reversal yesterday did rollover into this morning's trading. That's good news. The bad news is there is an open gap that could be the upside target as the chart remains in a downtrend with plenty of overhead resistance, so the bulls have their work cut out for them to keep this going.



The PMO indicator is in an interesting spot. It doesn't happen all of the time, but often the 1st attempt for the indicator to move above its average sets up an overbought pullback. That did happen, but it's the second crossing that is a better buy signal. It's trying, but we'll see if it can get there. It is still 0.07 away from touching it again.

We have now equaled the number of 1% moves for the year (19) as we had in all of 2024.

Bonds are slightly lower and the dollar is up for a change.

Bitcoin is surging again, while oil and gold are also up.