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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
- Reaction score
- 2,451
The S&P 500 is making an effort to remain above the 200-day EMA but it's half-hearted right now. Small caps are doing much better so far this morning.
The strong dollar continues to be a thorn in the side of the market as UUP heads toward an old open gap and the highs ,made this time last years.
The longer term trend remains up for the dollar and while we associate inflation with a weak dollar, perhaps the combination of inflation and a strong dollar is what is keeping the market down?
This is the season of weaker seasonality for stocks and perhaps the market can / will try to snap back once we get into October when seasonality improves toward the middle of the month. Yes, October is actually a pretty good month for stocks historically, but it is more associated with some major market crashes over the years.
The strong dollar continues to be a thorn in the side of the market as UUP heads toward an old open gap and the highs ,made this time last years.
The longer term trend remains up for the dollar and while we associate inflation with a weak dollar, perhaps the combination of inflation and a strong dollar is what is keeping the market down?
This is the season of weaker seasonality for stocks and perhaps the market can / will try to snap back once we get into October when seasonality improves toward the middle of the month. Yes, October is actually a pretty good month for stocks historically, but it is more associated with some major market crashes over the years.
- Reaction score
- 2,451
Yields, the dollar, and oil are down this morning, helping stocks add onto yesterday's gains.
The PCE Prices report was cooler than expected.
The rally has taken the S&P and S-fund chart up to some resistance that could make or break the relief rally.
The PCE Prices report was cooler than expected.
The rally has taken the S&P and S-fund chart up to some resistance that could make or break the relief rally.
- Reaction score
- 2,451
A spending bill failure reverses the market down. Historically, not the biggest deal, but on a Friday before the deadline, some selling seems natural.
Will it reverse back up if a deal is made this weekend, or has the technical damage been done? I'm asking for a friend.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/29/gov...-as-mccarthy-lays-out-partisan-vote-plan.html
Will it reverse back up if a deal is made this weekend, or has the technical damage been done? I'm asking for a friend.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/29/gov...-as-mccarthy-lays-out-partisan-vote-plan.html
- Reaction score
- 2,451
The economy is feeling some pressure giving hope that the Fed could be done raising interest rates, but yields and the dollar are up so the pressure for stocks is on. Oil is backing off potentially helping.
Stocks are mixed with the Nasdaq up nicely, while small caps and the Transports lag to start October and the Transports are testing the September lows right now.
Stocks are mixed with the Nasdaq up nicely, while small caps and the Transports lag to start October and the Transports are testing the September lows right now.
- Reaction score
- 2,451
Markets are once again going in a direction, and that can be up or down, that seems unsustainable, yet here we are seeing yields and the dollar stretching upward again, and of course investor mentality and algorithms are thinking if yields and the dollar are going up, stocks must be sold.
Will it turn out to be capitulation or a Turnaround Tuesday by the end of the day? We have some some extremes for that kind of set up, but momentum is a strong force.
Will it turn out to be capitulation or a Turnaround Tuesday by the end of the day? We have some some extremes for that kind of set up, but momentum is a strong force.
ridingthefundout
New Contributor
- Reaction score
- 4
Stillgaps in the C & S back at May 4th, and back at the mid 2020 time, when do those get filled
- Reaction score
- 2,451
The weaker than expected ADP jobs report is giving some relief to bond yields, oil, and the dollar, but it's early and so far that info has just stopped the bleeding. It hasn't triggered any meaningful buying and the sell the rallies crew is still in charge. It could change soon as the selling gets exhausted but the fear of any bounce failing may be keeping long term investors from committing, but we could see traders jump in soon.
There was a time when higher yields, a strong dollar, and rising oil prices was a good sign for the economy, and that's actually still true, but the rate of change, especially in yields, is the concern. It could impact company earnings and it gives investors an option to lock in higher guaranteed yields in lieu of stocks, although there's not a lot of bond buying going on right now.
There was a time when higher yields, a strong dollar, and rising oil prices was a good sign for the economy, and that's actually still true, but the rate of change, especially in yields, is the concern. It could impact company earnings and it gives investors an option to lock in higher guaranteed yields in lieu of stocks, although there's not a lot of bond buying going on right now.
I'm lame - couldn't find my own thread so hope it's ok to hijack yours...
S&P500 lows from the financial crisis always stuck with me - it hit 666.
DWCPF closed today at 1,666. I put in an IFT to jump in today but I wimped out and cancelled it.
Here's to hoping small caps hit their lows today with that "special" number in there..:nuts:
S&P500 lows from the financial crisis always stuck with me - it hit 666.
DWCPF closed today at 1,666. I put in an IFT to jump in today but I wimped out and cancelled it.
Here's to hoping small caps hit their lows today with that "special" number in there..:nuts:
- Reaction score
- 2,451
No problem. Here you go for future reference, or if you want to copy your post there...
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/19983-jonfresnos-account-talk.html
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/19983-jonfresnos-account-talk.html
- Reaction score
- 2,451
Yields and the dollar are down slightly, and oil is flat. Stocks are a little wobbly and digesting yesterday's gains. If yesterday's lows hold into the afternoon we could see some late buying but there could be some tentativeness with the jobs report coming out tomorrow.
After being flat yesterday, the I-fund is up and leading this morning with the overseas market reacting to yesterday late rally in the US market.
As I talked about in today's commentary, there's been no high volume capitulation from the bulls, and that opens the door for more "sell the rally" mentality.
After being flat yesterday, the I-fund is up and leading this morning with the overseas market reacting to yesterday late rally in the US market.
As I talked about in today's commentary, there's been no high volume capitulation from the bulls, and that opens the door for more "sell the rally" mentality.
- Reaction score
- 2,451
Ummm :notrust:, a literally unbelievable jobs report for September more than doubling estimates has futures tanking.
We say we wanted capitulation? This may be it.
Markets don't usually bottom on Fridays but if somehow today closes positive after the S&P futures were down nearly 50-points before the bell, we could have one. If it closes closer to the lows, more downside early next week but we're getting closer to either a low -- or a crash.
We say we wanted capitulation? This may be it.
Markets don't usually bottom on Fridays but if somehow today closes positive after the S&P futures were down nearly 50-points before the bell, we could have one. If it closes closer to the lows, more downside early next week but we're getting closer to either a low -- or a crash.
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