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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
1965Vintage
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 11
Merry Christmas TSPTalk! :smile:
- Reaction score
- 1,587
Hi,
I don't post much. I just wanted ALL to know:
DANNYBOY IS #1 ON THE TSP TALK AUTOTRACKER. I've been on these boards since 1992 and the best I had ever been is #2. This is all due to the alphabet and Dannyboy or D is very close to the begin. Also, it's Friday, so I'm #1 for at least 3 days in a row?
I got a lot to do and I'm sorry for hitching a ride on the tsptalker post, I kept trying to find a new post link, but couldn't so I dumped here.
ravensfan
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 159
- Reaction score
- 1,587
Congrats! Let's hope you stay there DB!
By the way, I found your old home...
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/members-account-talk/6858-dannyboys-account-talk.html
- Reaction score
- 1,587
The yield on the 10-year may be the key. We have a big bear flag on the longer term chart (below) but so far it is holding. A breakdown would obviously help the F-fund, but I think the stock market wouldn't like it. Again, it looks like it wants to hold that support line - at least for today. There is a small gap that may need filled above even if there is an eventual breakdown, and it would have to get back above the 50-day EMA to get there. That's a lot going on in these charts.
- Reaction score
- 1,587
As I mentioned in Tuesday's commentary there was a stealth gap opened between last Thursday's close and the highs the following day on Friday. Seeing that filled isn't a surprise, except for the fact that the S&P 500 futures were down 50 points Tuesday night, and are now up 23, so it took a tough route.
But now that the gap is filled this morning, we could see some program trading back off, although mom and pop may keep buying this excitement and get themselves trapped.
As has been the case for a while now, the dumb money and buy and holders have been rewarded handsomely. But we know buy and holders eventually pay a big price. When eventually will be, I don't know? Last night it looked like it could be today, but instead the market is celebrating something that it never even had a chance to sell (during stock market hours, anyway.)
- Reaction score
- 1,587
This means something, but it's such a slow moving process that it's tough to even try to consider it on a day to day basis.
The dollar had created a huge bull flag and found support at the 200-day EMA - assuming this isn't a rounded top (red line).
The yield on the 10-year has created a large bear flag after failing to recapture the 200-day EMA on the last test.
To a technical analyst it might indicate a breakout for the dollar and a breakdown in yields is coming, which would be bullish for the F-fund, and most likely a hindrance for the I-fund.
But it's sooo sloooww in developing.
- Reaction score
- 1,587
A flat day for U.S. stocks after some deeply red overnight futures. Here's a few things of interest so far...
The EFA (I-fund) is down moderately and seems to want to hold at the short-term rising support line.
The yield on the 10-year had broken below the 50-day EMA last week, then failed when it tried to recapture it and the rising support line...
The AGG (F-fund) moves counter to those yields and is back above the old highs...
weatherweenie
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 105
I was VERY tempted to get out of the F, thinking it was a good up day, and moving to the G fund, hoping for the impending drop that hasn't happened in stocks, yet.
A flat day for U.S. stocks after some deeply red overnight futures. Here's a few things of interest so far...
The EFA (I-fund) is down moderately and seems to want to hold at the short-term rising support line.
The yield on the 10-year had broken below the 50-day EMA last week, then failed when it tried to recapture it and the rising support line...
The AGG (F-fund) moves counter to those yields and is back above the old highs...
weatherweenie
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 105
Surprised to see the Transports falling with oil falling.
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 569
It's the trucking sector components that are getting hit the hardest.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^DJT/components/
Trucking is taking a beating everywhere right now- falling shipments, and a number of carriers going belly up is bringing market instability to that part of the transportation sector.
James48843
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 569
note: Trucking, and shipping overall, has been falling for seven months now. Case Transportation (Trucking) Index is down 7.9% in December. That's a significant showing of collapsing shipments of goods.
https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/cass-freight-index
I'm just looking for the right exit point - once this market climb stops, I fell it's going to be a big pullback.
Here is the actual month-to-month data on trucking shipments. I haven't seen numbers like what we are seeing right now, since 2007.
https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/december-
my opinion: This is just one of many, many danger signals flashing right now. I'm still in, but only because he trend is still climbing. once it breaks, its going to be bad. I am reviewing data every day watching for signs to exit.
- Reaction score
- 576
Hope you can warn the rest of us in time.Similar threads
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