tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Another very interesting day. The Dow is up nicely (+60). S&P is basically flat (up 1). The Nasdaq 100 is getting hit hard (down 1%). Transports are up big (up 1%). Small caps are down slightly. Bonds are rolling over again. :scratchchin:

 

[tsptalk]

I see the indices are moving higher into the Fed announcement while bonds are slipping although still up slightly.

That's the logical direction considering it appears 20,000 is a magnet right now but wait for the dust to settle after the initial volatile reaction. We may not see the true reaction / direction until tomorrow since emotion is likely the catalyst today. It could get wild if there are any surprises.

 

[tsptalk]

The VIX hit a 16-month low this morning...

 

[tsptalk]

The small cap fund had a bull flag breakout this morning. Needs to hold into the close.

The S&P 500 is testing the top of its flag.

 

[tsptalk]

Dollar falling hard. Gold and bonds up big. Stocks wavering.

The January seasonality chart might suggest a day 3 (not Jan 3) pause from the 2-day rally to start the year.

Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com

 

[tsptalk]

Big negative reversal so far in the dollar this morning. It ran up and filled two gaps, then backed down. Looks like a bear flag and it may test the 50-day EMA soon. Potentially good relative strength for the I-fund after today (in comparison to C and S?). The dollar is actually still positive today so that relative strength probably won't show up in tonight's I-fund price. It's when (if) the UUP breaks down from the flag that it may benefit the I-fund. This is not a recommendation to get in the I-fund. Just an FYI.

 

[tsptalk]

It's when (if) the UUP breaks down from the flag that it may benefit the I-fund. This is not a recommendation to get in the I-fund. Just an FYI.

That flag breakdown didn't take long...

 

[tsptalk]

The Trannies have so far successfully tested that double dose of support, but it is back below the 20-day EMA.

 

[tsptalk]

The Transports have held at support so far and we're seeing a bounce off the at support this morning as the railroad stocks are doing well. There is some resistance at today's high which created a little pullback to test a new support line - created by last week's high. Looks like 9200 is that pace to watch for support now, and about 9300 for resistance.

 

[tsptalk]

Gaps filled or nearly filled this morning before a bit of a negative reversal....

 

[tsptalk]

Fed-speak brought buyers back this afternoon.

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/02/01/fed-leaves-rates-unchanged-at-february-meeting.html

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P is breaking above the first resistance line of rising wedge, and nearing new highs and the top of the "F" looking flag...

 

[rspring]

The S&P is breaking above the first resistance line of rising wedge, and nearing new highs and the top of the "F" looking flag...

Does it look like it will break out? I think if we get any indication that the regulation on banks will be changed then we will see new highs. Mid 2300"s

 

[pmaloney]

Come on 2300! :smile:

 

[tsptalk]

Does it look like it will break out?

There's a tendency to see some give backs in the days following a jobs report rally. But the real answer will come from the outcome of the Super Bowl.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/superbowlindicator.asp

 

[shitepoke]

There's a tendency to see some give backs in the days following a jobs report rally. But the real answer will come from the outcome of the Super Bowl.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/superbowlindicator.asp

Falcon win and we bust 2300...

 

[tsptalk]

Bonds putting in a negative outside reversal day...

 

[fedgolfer]

Definitely not looking good for the F-Fund longterm. However, there may be a chance for a very short reprieve. PSAR uptrend dot formed outside the lower BB (circled in green on chart), majority of times that leads to a short-term PSAR uptrend. DISCLAIMER: I could easily be confused in reading the tea leaves; and as of COB yesterday I could be the F-Fund bag holder if I'm wrong

 

[tsptalk]

Carter Worth on CNBC agrees and sees a move in the 10-year treasury yield down to about 2.15% before the bear market in bonds resumes.

I'm not sure I agree yet, but I can be persuaded ... so thanks for your analysis, fedgolfer!

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar gapped up and broke its descending trading channel this morning, and is testing the 50-day EMA.