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New lows on the leader (Dow Transportation Index).

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Scout333 said:
What the heck happened the last hour!!
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Crazy day, but after the back to back 2.5% losses (and an intraday 3rd day) and hitting new annual low, the odds were in the bulls' favor. As wrote in last night's commentary (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/entry.php?1481-New-lows)...

"As far as the next week goes, since 1940, the S&P was perfect being up 11 out of 11 times with a median return of +4.7%.

"Since 1928, if the 2nd down day was a Monday (as it was this time), then the next week was positive all 5 times, averaging +11.1%."
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We may have more room to run.

Holy cow, did I have a big week or two in my IRA trading TNA, TZA and FAZ. Too bad my TSP had to sit in bonds the whole time.
 
"As far as the next week goes, since 1940, the S&P was perfect being up 11 out of 11 times with a median return of +4.7%.

"Since 1928, if the 2nd down day was a Monday (as it was this time), then the next week was positive all 5 times, averaging +11.1%."
Click to expand...

I will need that to recover any positive return this year on my autotracker......:rolleyes:
 
tsptalk said:
Crazy day, but after the back to back 2.5% losses (and an intraday 3rd day) and hitting new annual low, the odds were in the bulls' favor. As wrote in last night's commentary (http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/entry.php?1481-New-lows)...


Holy cow, did I have a big week or two in my IRA trading TNA, TZA and FAZ. Too bad my TSP had to sit in bonds the whole time.
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Congrats Tom! Look at some of the after hours trading. Big boys skimming a little??
 
tsptalk said:
Holy cow, did I have a big week or two in my IRA trading TNA, TZA and FAZ.
Click to expand...
Too bad I can't day trade and the evidence to show whether I should hold overnight has been slim... I have made a few profitable trades these last 2 weeks, but finding a trend is, well, IMPOSSIBLE...

Congrats !!
 
I haven't been in the bear market camp - rather a correction in an on going bull market. A steep one at that but I'm not going to wait for confirmation to buy.
 
Birchtree said:
I haven't been in the bear market camp - rather a correction in an on going bull market. A steep one at that but I'm not going to wait for confirmation to buy.
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Birchtree is correct....this is just a correction (def:<20%), only 19.99999% down from the peak (SPY). Wait till friday.
 
amoeba said:
Birchtree is correct....this is just a correction (def:<20%), only 19.99999% down from the peak (SPY). Wait till friday.
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BT is only one side, there is another. I don't care in the long run which is right, but I will prepare myself for how the market moves. Hopes won't make it go up.

ADP report tomorrow, non-farm payrolls and unemployment reports on Friday... Which way were you "hoping" the market will go on Friday? Even if the market closed above 1100, don't mean the Bear market won't happen, just not today...

Watch, listen with an open mind, and make your moves with how the market dictates, not how you want it to go... Just my 2 cents. :D
 
The 50-day EMA is holding so far this morning, but it usually does on the first test. The market needs a rest because of its recent run, but should the S&P breakout to the upside, it could use the Aug - Oct highs as support. It hasn't broken out yet, however so let's see how the pull back plays out.

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If the NYAD leads the way then the market is heading higher - there is a recent confirmed breakout above the intermediate term declining tops line - looks impressive.
 
Back below the 200 EMA, but above 50. The bear flag seems to be back in the picture (or is it just a rising trading channel?)

110111a.gif
 
I did some ETF long buying (gambling) toward the close today and also nibbled on a partial position in my TSP today before the deadline. I noticed that, since the original sell-off in early August (flag pole), the market did not go down for much more than 3 or 4 days before bouncing strongly again. Look at the chart above.

That helps with the ETF trades but it's a little more of a gamble in our TSP unless it's another hit and run, which cost me quite a bit (missed gains) in October.
 
The open gap on the Nasdaq is nearly filled. The reversal pattern looks good and if the top of that gap does not act as resistance, we could have ourselves some new highs before long. That would also be a breakout of an inverted H&S pattern.

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With so many expecting 2011 to repeat 2008, should we expect the opposite to happen? I notice this theme everywhere - everyone seems to want to draw parallels between the two years. Could the market just go into hyperdrive instead?
 
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