tsptalk's Market Talk

[coolhand]

It's about time. Where ya been Santa?

I don't think I'd say that too loud.

 

[nnuut]

Just a small cheer??:worried:

 

[tsptalk]

Yeah, a small cheer as the close is the important indicator. As I just mentioned in the S-fund thread, Monday morning gaps can be flaky.

 

[tsptalk]

The VIX is down to 20.52.

 

[coolhand]

The VIX is down to 20.52.

I'm really looking forward to seeing that indicator drop below 20.

Cause that's when BT hits the lilly pad!

And that's something I just gotta see.

 

[WorkFE]

CH,
We could sell tickets to that event. Plus all the used sticky pants that you'll be able to find on ebay:laugh:

 

[tsptalk]

I'd be surprised if birchtree sells regardless of the VIX. As a buy and holder he will find a reason not to sell. And I can see the reason why now. 20.0 is a low reading this year for the VIX, but historically it is not bad at all. It's all relative.

 

[coolhand]

I'd be surprised if birchtree sells regardless of the VIX. As a buy and holder he will find a reason not to sell. And I can see the reason why now. 20.0 is a low reading this year for the VIX, but historically it is not bad at all. It's all relative.

He's been saying he'd sell when VIX dropped below 20. That's the only reason I bring it up. :cheesy:

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=240560&postcount=2253

 

[tsptalk]

I know. I've read that too, but don't believe him.

Sounds like you don't either.

 

[Birchtree]

And the intrigue continues. He will shift but only gently - I'm thinking I'm safe until March 2010. But we all know the blind side is waiting for the complacent. If I move 5% a month I'd be 30% into the G fund by June '10, and ready to absorb the coming correction. The VIX is probably heading into the middle teens and is relevant for a contrarian.

 

[James48843]

Santa rally here?

View attachment 7708​

VIX is down to 19 and change. My charts are saying VIX will hit about 17 and then reverse. It doesn't make sense to me- but that's what the P&F chart on the VIX is saying- so I'm trusting it.

It's becoming darn hard NOT to bail out here- but then again, Santa has been good. I almost bailed this morning, but I'm going to hang on till next week now.

Merry Christmas- Santa Rally Ho Ho Ho to you.

 

[tsptalk]

A VIX of 17 seems reasonable for the holiday trading period. There's certainly complacency out there, but we're all just waiting for Santa to finish giving. No one seems to be in a rush to get out. Once the exit door opens, however, don't fall down or you might get trampled.

Merry Christmas!

 

[coolhand]

A VIX of 17 seems reasonable for the holiday trading period. There's certainly complacency out there, but we're all just waiting for Santa to finish giving. No one seems to be in a rush to get out. Once the exit door opens, however, don't fall down or you might get trampled.

Merry Christmas!

Yes. I'm thinking this thing is really setting up for some profit taking, but timing it is going to be tricky. Assuming it happens of course.

I noticed you blew past all those I Funders on the tracker yesterday.

 

[tsptalk]

Yeah, I saw that group a few weeks ago and I thought it would be impenetrable, but a strong rally in the dollar and boom! Now, I believe the dollar is going to pullback from the 200-day EMA, so I don't know if my lead on them will survive next week.

 

[JTH]

Yeah, I saw that group a few weeks ago and I thought it would be impenetrable, but a strong rally in the dollar and boom! Now, I believe the dollar is going to pullback from the 200-day EMA, so I don't know if my lead on them will survive next week.

Nice catch on the 200 EMA, what the heck how many moving averages do you watch? :cheesy:

 

[JTH]

One item of interest.

Historically the Dollar's strongest months are Jan & Feb.

I know this because some guy on Bloomberg said it at 4 in the morning, so it must be true...

 

[tsptalk]

One item of interest.

Historically the Dollar's strongest months are Jan & Feb.

I know this because some guy on Bloomberg said it at 4 in the morning, so it must be true...

Well, now it can't work. Once you notice a trend, it's over. Just speaking of the trend out loud is enough to kill it.

 

[tsptalk]

Nice catch on the 200 EMA, what the heck how many moving averages do you watch? :cheesy:

I watch the basics - 20, 50 and 200-day MA's. I also like the 86 day (it seems to work for some reason).

 

[Bullitt]

Well, now it can't work. Once you notice a trend, it's over.

That's why I find it interesting that we're talking about the VIX again. The media killed that one on the front page and are now in the process of killing the dollar on the front page. What next?

As far as the VIX correlation and dollar correlation, I use this analogy. Next time you have your turn signal on at a red light and the car in front of you does too, how many times do both signals seem to click in unison? Maybe once every 25 seconds?

Ha. But isn't this great? Has anybody learned anything from past history lessons? I unloaded a mutual fund and a few stocks today for LT tax losses. Both were mistakes from the gate, but tax loss forward write down incentive along with a VIX below 20 and jovial happy times Christmas trading volume equals good bye! VIX below 20; how many said they would sell when it got to that point? Yet predictions for 2010 are mostly bullish with 6-20% gains the consensus.

This rally is/was a gift. How did investors manage to take advantage of it?

 

[Birchtree]

Someone said today that the small caps were 30% overvalued currently - just thought you all would like to know.