JTH
Well-known member
Flash crash?
Somebody hit the sell button, 48 of the S&P 500's Top-50 closed down, all except for GOOG/GOOGL, all the sectors closed down.
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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
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Somebody hit the sell button, 48 of the S&P 500's Top-50 closed down, all except for GOOG/GOOGL, all the sectors closed down.
Such a weird couple of days with that flash crash late yesterday and a this morning's attempt to go back to the bullish business as usual. There was no explanation but you know something was happening, whether it was a leak of info, a comment by someone who has major influence, or manipulation of some sort.
But it probably had some meaning and the market will trade around it for at least a few days, whether it's to test that low again which, as I mentioned in today's commentary was a solid support area, or it's the bell being rung to mark a temporary top. Of course the timing is odd as we all expected Santa Claus to keep the rally going. There are always tendencies out there but that doesn't mean the unexpected isn't thrown at us once in a while.
But it probably had some meaning and the market will trade around it for at least a few days, whether it's to test that low again which, as I mentioned in today's commentary was a solid support area, or it's the bell being rung to mark a temporary top. Of course the timing is odd as we all expected Santa Claus to keep the rally going. There are always tendencies out there but that doesn't mean the unexpected isn't thrown at us once in a while.
Yields and the dollar have been flip flopping in recent days - one day the 10-year yield is down and the dollar is up, today it's the opposite.
It's a quiet pre-holiday day giving the bulls the edge as traders take off for their long weekend and the investors are getting their automatic paycheck deposits put to work.
Today is a full day of trading, unlike if was actually Christmas Eve where there is usually a half day of trading.
Being very underinvested at the moment, I am looking forward to the long weekend to forget about what the bulls are doing to me.
Merry Christmas everyone, and enjoy the holidays!
It's a quiet pre-holiday day giving the bulls the edge as traders take off for their long weekend and the investors are getting their automatic paycheck deposits put to work.
Today is a full day of trading, unlike if was actually Christmas Eve where there is usually a half day of trading.
Being very underinvested at the moment, I am looking forward to the long weekend to forget about what the bulls are doing to me.
Merry Christmas everyone, and enjoy the holidays!
So far it's a typical holiday day of trading with light volume and lots of modest green. The news flow seems quiet.
Bond yields and the dollar are down helping the situation, while oil is up big and starting to test some overhead major moving averages after a two week rally.
The big question, assuming Santa remains in the building this week, will the new year bring a new direction or more of the same? That certainly impacts where we want to end the year allocation-wise.
I'm working on some site maintenance this morning so I may not be posting much.
Thanks!
Bond yields and the dollar are down helping the situation, while oil is up big and starting to test some overhead major moving averages after a two week rally.
The big question, assuming Santa remains in the building this week, will the new year bring a new direction or more of the same? That certainly impacts where we want to end the year allocation-wise.
I'm working on some site maintenance this morning so I may not be posting much.
Thanks!
Quite the yawner morning for stocks despite good sized declines in the 10-year yield and the dollar, the the dollar making lows not seen since August.
Based on this chart, the next move in the dollar could tell us a lot about the market. This correlation between stocks and the dollar is not always this consistent, but investors have been triggered by this particular move in the dollar this year, which obviously has interest rate and economic strength implications.
Based on this chart, the next move in the dollar could tell us a lot about the market. This correlation between stocks and the dollar is not always this consistent, but investors have been triggered by this particular move in the dollar this year, which obviously has interest rate and economic strength implications.
Yields and the dollar are up and early gains in stocks are drifting lower, but today and tomorrow will be all about repositioning.
Repositioning shouldn't be a major factor since both stocks and bonds were up nicely in the 4th quarter, but now that the settlement date for any sales moves out to 2024, we could see some profit taking and more choppy action for the next day and a half.
Gold, silver, oil, bitcoin are all down perhaps because of this morning's strength in the dollar. Oil is backing off from resistance and that rally party may be over as the economy is expected to weak in 2024. To what degree, no one seems to agree, but most agree a slowdown is coming so we could see oil fall further.
Repositioning shouldn't be a major factor since both stocks and bonds were up nicely in the 4th quarter, but now that the settlement date for any sales moves out to 2024, we could see some profit taking and more choppy action for the next day and a half.
Gold, silver, oil, bitcoin are all down perhaps because of this morning's strength in the dollar. Oil is backing off from resistance and that rally party may be over as the economy is expected to weak in 2024. To what degree, no one seems to agree, but most agree a slowdown is coming so we could see oil fall further.
The first few days of a month and New Year can be telling. It's too early to say at this point (an hour into trading) but we see bond yields, the dollar, and stocks all moving in the opposite direction of the late 2023 trend, but the trends have not been broken yet.
Last week I talked about the new year switch that happened after a monster 1999 rally ran into the first week of January 2000. You can read about it here...
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/6647-tsp-talk-stocks-rallying-like-its-1999-a.html
Here's the chart.
Again, it's way to early to say anything about this first hour of trading, but there is a precedence.
Bitcoin, gold, and silver are all up this morning despite the rally in the dollar, which makes the moves all that more impressive.
Support being tested on C and S funds this morning.
Last week I talked about the new year switch that happened after a monster 1999 rally ran into the first week of January 2000. You can read about it here...
https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/6647-tsp-talk-stocks-rallying-like-its-1999-a.html
Here's the chart.
Again, it's way to early to say anything about this first hour of trading, but there is a precedence.
Bitcoin, gold, and silver are all up this morning despite the rally in the dollar, which makes the moves all that more impressive.
Support being tested on C and S funds this morning.
Small caps are outperforming and we have a nice little midday push off the lows. There could be new pension money coming into the market this week, but recent buying may be getting exhausted so how well it holds up into the close will be a decent tell for the coming days.
arty:
Yields and the dollar are up again this morning, putting pressure on stocks.
The dollar is not up against resistance and the next move might be critical for the stock market. A breakout could keep turn the pullback in stocks into something more serious. If resistance holds, the rally may resume.
As I talked about last week, the 1999 - 2000 playbook is still playing out. Does that mean we see a bounce in a couple of days, that fails at the recent highs? Can't be that easy, right?
The dollar is not up against resistance and the next move might be critical for the stock market. A breakout could keep turn the pullback in stocks into something more serious. If resistance holds, the rally may resume.
As I talked about last week, the 1999 - 2000 playbook is still playing out. Does that mean we see a bounce in a couple of days, that fails at the recent highs? Can't be that easy, right?
Yields are up a bit to start the day but the dollar is pulling back after hitting its 50-day average yesterday. That's giving the stock market, especially the I-fund, some relief.
The S&P found its first area of support in the 20 day average and the bottom of that negative reversal day on 12/20. That could be it for the pullback, but even if its not, the PMO showed a short-term oversold crossover to the downside so a little relief at this point is not unexpected and typical. See the 1999-2000 chart from a few posts ago.
The S&P found its first area of support in the 20 day average and the bottom of that negative reversal day on 12/20. That could be it for the pullback, but even if its not, the PMO showed a short-term oversold crossover to the downside so a little relief at this point is not unexpected and typical. See the 1999-2000 chart from a few posts ago.
The initial reaction to the stronger than expected jobs report is higher yields and a slightly higher dollar, but both are now facing strong resistance from major moving averages.
Stocks are up despite the higher yields but that resistance probably has to hold on the 10-year (TNX below) to sustain the positive open.
Stocks are up despite the higher yields but that resistance probably has to hold on the 10-year (TNX below) to sustain the positive open.
Hmmm, a delayed reaction or a delayed quote, but why is it falling on strong economic data? Technical analysis?
Boeing is down 9% and that's putting a lot of pressure on the Dow, but otherwise a dip in the dollar and the 10-year Treasury yield is helping the broader markets move up this morning.
Small caps are lagging a bit, as are the Transports.
Japan's stock market continues to hover near recent highs, helping the I-fund.
Small caps are lagging a bit, as are the Transports.
Japan's stock market continues to hover near recent highs, helping the I-fund.
Wow, feels a little manipulative. People were falling all over themselves buying yesterday afternoon, and today, with little news, someone is dumping stocks. Where were they yesterday?
Obviously stocks go up and they go down, but when there is a quick shift like this it's suspicious.
The first week in January did change sentiment slightly to a less bullish level and selling rallies is often the result, but when stocks gap down after yesterday's strong close, it is only the futures traders than can exit quickly, otherwise it's a gap down for most traders.
Anyway, paranoia aside, yields and the dollar are flat to higher today and most things are changing directions from yesterday's action. Gold and oil were down yesterday - today they're up. Bitcoin was up yesterday, today it's down.
Seeing a little dip buying later today will be a bullish sign, but if the market gives back most or all of yesterday's gains -- that's not good going forward.
It could be a shakeout to lose some weaker bulls so big money can buy lower, or yesterday was the shakeout to get people buy so big money can sell higher. Which is it? :scratchchin:
Obviously stocks go up and they go down, but when there is a quick shift like this it's suspicious.
The first week in January did change sentiment slightly to a less bullish level and selling rallies is often the result, but when stocks gap down after yesterday's strong close, it is only the futures traders than can exit quickly, otherwise it's a gap down for most traders.
Anyway, paranoia aside, yields and the dollar are flat to higher today and most things are changing directions from yesterday's action. Gold and oil were down yesterday - today they're up. Bitcoin was up yesterday, today it's down.
Seeing a little dip buying later today will be a bullish sign, but if the market gives back most or all of yesterday's gains -- that's not good going forward.
It could be a shakeout to lose some weaker bulls so big money can buy lower, or yesterday was the shakeout to get people buy so big money can sell higher. Which is it? :scratchchin:
Yields and the dollar are down slightly helping stocks start the day on a modestly positive note, although small caps are lagging and down. I posted the breakout in Japan's stock market last night in another thread and that's helping the I-fund lead this morning.
The dollar looks like it is going to wait until tomorrow's CPI report before committing to that bull flag breakout above the 50-day EMA, or a pullback to address that open gap.
Oil is up, gold and silver are down, and bitcoin is falling after a fake SEC post on X (twitter) said they (the SEC) approved the bitcoin ETF. They didn't -- yet.
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