tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Some solid follow through, thru thick resistance for stocks, although as you see in the charts, there's more to deal with.

Initial jobless claims were up, appeasing the Fed's desire to see inflation and the labor market cool.

The dollar and yields are down sharply helping the situation.

It's early but C, S, I, and F are having a day.

 

[tsptalk]

This could be the start of something big -- but what happens if Apple drops a bomb after the bell today? :blink:

 

[tsptalk]

It's been quite a move off the lows and each move takes out another layer of resistance. There's still more just above. Has the easy money been made off 4100 or is there more to go? That's the decision today.

Yields are falling sharply again after the cool jobs report. I haven't dove into those numbers yet but remember last month's report that was ridiculously hot? Stocks popped and dropped a few days later on that data. Now we have a cool report so we'll see if investors are still buying the weaker data by the close.

 

[tsptalk]

The bulls took charge last week but many charts are up against resistance, so the relief rally may find the upside more stubborn than we saw over the last few trading days.

Small caps are lagging as the 50-day EMA is being challenged.

Yields are bouncing off the 50-day EMA after the semi-reversal day on Friday. The dollar is also trying to hold at the 50-day EMA after last week's sell off. With the Fed steadily reducing their balance sheet, there could be some underlying strength in the dollar.

 

[tsptalk]

It's early, but the breadth is quite negative despite the green in the indices. It's the small caps within the NYSE that is pushing up the decliner numbers.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

It's a big week with the Fed meeting Tues / Wed. and policy statement Wednesday, Apple earnings after the bell on Thursday, plus the jobs report on Friday.

Monday gap ups are hard to trust so you watch the reaction after initial pullback from the gap up. So far it's holding up, but there will be, and have been, rally sellers battling the bargain hunters.

Yields are up slightly, the dollar is down and the latter is helping the I-fund lead in early trading this morning. The EFA is trying to hold onto a 1% gain.

Small caps are lagging again, and are testing long term lows.

Oil is down sharply.

Oil being down sharply is a good sign for inflation "deflating'.

 

[tsptalk]

Oil being down sharply is a good sign for inflation "deflating'.

Yes. I think the battle now is between the new bullish interest rate horizon (stable or lower) and the economy suffering because of the, what was it, 11 hikes?

Oil going down is good for us but may be a sign of traders betting on a slow down.

 

[tsptalk]

Buoyancy Monday. What is it, 16 of last 17 Mondays have been positive? Or was it 15 of 16? Either way.

 

[JTH]

Buoyancy Monday. What is it, 16 of last 17 Mondays have been positive? Or was it 15 of 16? Either way.

Yeppers, 16 of 17, 17 of 19, & 20 of 23 but who's counting

 

[tsptalk]

With yields pulling back, but the dollar rallying, there's mixed to flat action to start the day in stocks. Lots of Fedspeak today, and earlier comments from the Fed’s Neel Kashkari saying he's not convinced rate hikes are over, could make things get whippy, and maybe confusing, later. I saw an article that Australia is not done raising rates after declaring being done earlier. They had a 4 month pause before hiking again.

Sounds like these central banks are enjoying their control.

 

[tsptalk]

Despite the gains, the NYSE still has more declining issues and share volume today, than advancing. The Nasdaq is slightly positive on advancing issues.

Not that we haven't seen this before since the top tech stocks generally move the market most, but the divergence is worth keeping an eye on.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are mixed this morning with small caps and the Nasdaq down at t

he moment, while the Dow and S&P are higher.

I saw a headline that said ChatGPT was down in a "major" outage. I'm not sure if that's causing the reversal in the Nasdaq, which was up earlier.

Yields and the dollar are basically flat, and oil is tanking (down another 1% after yesterday's 4% drop). The Fed is due to speak today, or is in the process of - I'm not seeing anything. It will be interesting to hear what he has to say given the long winning streak for stocks while he's still worried about inflation.

Friday is a holiday but the tsp.gov website hasn't indicated any closing of the TSP yet. Has anybody heard anything?

The Russell 2000 has filled its first open gap with today's near 1% loss....

 

[TommyIV]

Friday is a holiday but the tsp.gov website hasn't indicated any closing of the TSP yet. Has anybody heard anything?

It is not on their calendar: TSP Events and Scheduled Maintenance | The Thrift Savings Plan (TSP)

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

"Government offices: Because Veterans Day lands on a Saturday in 2023, most government offices, both local and federal, will be closed in observance on Friday, Nov. 10. Although certain essential services such as the police and fire departments will remain operational as usual. "

https://www.9news.com/article/news/...osed/507-5ecbf6b3-0f51-448c-8684-0a3b5d58d3a4

 

[tsptalk]

Friday is a holiday but the tsp.gov website hasn't indicated any closing of the TSP yet. Has anybody heard anything?

It's official: The TSP will be closed Friday November 10th, 2023, for Veteran’s Day

 

[tsptalk]

It's a quiet weak for economic data and the indices have been quiet as well. Yields are up a bit while the dollar is down slightly.

The S&P has been forming one of those Oscarism F-flags. The good news is, those flags can go on like that for a long time. The bad news is they tend to eventually break down.

Tons of resistance in the area so the move to frustrate the most people would be to the upside. Will the folks at Goldman Sach's push it higher and above resistance to get the bears to chase before another pullback starts?

Small caps have been acting poorly but they've had every excuse to break down yet they're actually trying to hold and forma bullish flag. Too many open gaps below and the KRE small regional banks look bad, so it would be a dangerous play. Let's get those gaps filled so we can stop worrying about them.

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting action in bond yields. Is this a right shoulder forming for an eventual breakdown?

On the other side, is this an inverted head and shoulders on the Russell 2000? It just needs to fill that gap, and we'll see -- new low or a higher low.

 

[tsptalk]

I'm not sure what is triggering the rally. Yields and the dollar aren't moving much after yesterday's rally in yields following Powell's hawkish comments.

It could just the lighter trading volume due to the holiday or it could be a technical move of retracing yesterday's candlestick, or it could be the gap just getting filled. There's no major headline. The F-flag is back in business after yesterday's breakdown.

 

[nasa1974]

I like it. upside that is. :laugh:

 

[tsptalk]

It's official: The TSP will be closed Friday November 10th, 2023, for Veteran’s Day

I may have screwed up because I was given wrong information from the Thrift Line, or they misunderstood my question. I asked them if they were open on Friday and they said no (see email below) which I unfortunately took to mean they were not processing transactions, but I see they posted share prices for Friday, so I'm not sure what's going on. The questions is, were they allowing transactions?

Crap! So sorry.