tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Bank issues are back.

Dow falls 200 points with bank shares under pressure from Moody’s downgrade

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/07/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

 

[tsptalk]

It's a slow start to the day with yields and the dollar down slightly, helping the I-fund take the early lead with a modest gain while US stocks start the day slightly south of flat.

The CPI is on the radar for tomorrow, and earnings are still coming in, although most are inconsequential to the market as a whole.

Nvidia reports in a couple of weeks and that could be a market mover.

Regional banks are down a bit but may try to feed off of yesterday's positive reversal to bring in new buyers.

So far everything is slow and tentative to start the day.

 

[tsptalk]

The way the market has been whipsawing lately, this may not mean much, but the S&P 500 (C) has broken above some resistance this morning, and the small caps (S) are still trying to get above its 20-day EMA and descending resistance line.

The cool CPI report is sending yields and the dollar down, helping the situation for stocks.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are up again, moving toward the highs we saw before the jobs report last week.

Small caps / S-fun, is trying to rebound off the 50-day EMA, which has been consequential this year in holding as support or resistance either temporarily, or an all out wall like in April and May when it was acting a resistance.

 

[tsptalk]

The pressure is on the TSP funds this morning. Yields and the dollar are up. The strong dollar will weigh heavily on the I-fund quite a bit, and US stocks to a lesser degree. The high yields give investors options as the 10-year hits 4.2% again this morning.

The higher yields has the BND (F-fund) testing the recent lows.

 

[tsptalk]

The very early action this morning saw a pop in yields, but a pretty good sized pullback after hitting the top of the channel on the 10-year T-note. The dollar is also down quite a bit so stocks may be holding on better than it could have been - so far, anyway.

The three major TSP indices are all retracing yesterday's moves and retesting the confluence of support that has been trying to hold.

 

[tsptalk]

The early action has yields and the dollar down slightly, taking some pressure off the stock market to start the day. The Nasdaq is down slightly and both the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) and the S&P 500 are trying to hold onto their 50-day EMAs.

The July Fed meeting minutes will be released later today, and while there should be little mystery, you never know what investors will glean from the notes.

 

[tsptalk]

The early action has yields and the dollar down slightly, taking some pressure off the stock market to start the day.

OK, then... yields and the dollar are now up, and tocks weakened.

I can see why yields may be going up with the Atlanta Fed's new estimate on Q3 GDP now up to +5.8%

 

[pmaloney]

So, do you think we can count on another rally on Monday when the BRICS and about 41 countries are meeting to discuss how to NOT use the Dollar? :smile:

 

[rdodson]

OK, then... yields and the dollar are now up, and tocks weakened.

I can see why yields may be going up with the Atlanta Fed's new estimate on Q3 GDP now up to +5.8%

They must have had mushrooms for lunch

 

[tsptalk]

So, do you think we can count on another rally on Monday when the BRICS and about 41 countries are meeting to discuss how to NOT use the Dollar? :smile:

That's the current trend (positive Mondays and weakness afterward), but as we often see, as soon as you notice a pattern, it is probably about to end.

 

[tsptalk]

The 10-year Yields is up to start the day, while the dollar is pulling back about 0.25%. Yesterday everything flipped after I posted the early action notes, so you never know what is going to stick.

Stocks are mixed but mostly flat with the Nasdaq and small caps lagging and slightly negative.

Wal-Mart is up slightly after reporting earnings but it's been swinging and has created an outside day (higher high over yesterday, and a lower low.) It's actually only about $1 off this year's high which happened earlier this month.

The yield curve remains inverted by quite a bit, yet the economic data suggests anything but a recession. :notrust:

If you don't like what you see in the market this morning, look back in a few hours. It could flip. It's been that choppy.

The Dow is testing an area that could try to act as support where the 50-day EMA is meeting what could be the neckline of an old inverted head and shoulders pattern. It depends how you draw the line.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are falling and the 10-year is perhaps starting a pulling back from the major double top from back in October. The stock market would welcome that.

The S&P 500 isn't jumping for joy over it yet, but we see small caps trying to battle back this morning from the break down below its 200-day EMA. It's too early to claim any kind of victory but a close above the 200-day EMA today might be a small win for the bulls.

 

[tsptalk]

AAII Investor Sentiment Survey

 

[tsptalk]

The reliable Monday morning bounce is giving a mixed, half hearted attempt this morning with slight to modest gains in the indices, while the Dow and small caps are down to start the day. The rally in the 10-year yield again this morning is pushing it to levels we hadn't seen since 2007. The dollar is flat and the high yield corporate bonds are disturbingly down testing Friday's lows this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

So, do you think we can count on another rally on Monday when the BRICS and about 41 countries are meeting to discuss how to NOT use the Dollar? :smile:

That's the current trend (positive Mondays and weakness afterward), but as we often see, as soon as you notice a pattern, it is probably about to end.

Yup, it's early but they may be onto that pattern so it should change.

 

[tsptalk]

Another Monday rally -- so far. It will be interesting to see if there is selling near the close since every Tuesday and Wednesday in August has been negative.

 

[tsptalk]

More mixed action this morning with the Dow down again today in early trading. The S&P and Nasdaq are up again as A-I talk is back.

The Nasdaq 100 (100 largest tech stocks) made it back above the 50-day EMA briefly but it's slightly back below it now.

The dollar is up weighing on global stocks, which may be why the Dow is lagging.

High Yield (credit market) is also trying to rally but may have some trouble trying to recapture the 50-day EMA and a couple of other resistance points.

 

[tsptalk]

Some weaker than expected manufacturing data is sending yields lower this morning, and the stock market is happy about it, but still holding below key resistance, although the Nasdaq 100, is breaking above its 50-dfay EMA ahead of this evening's Nvidia earnings report after the bell.

Buying the rumor?

 

[tsptalk]

Nvidia earnings after the bell will either pop the S&P over the resistance in the way, or swatted back down. The other option is a little of both - a pop higher that sucks in new buyers, and a failure by the end of tomorrow.

So far it is looking good as a possible "V" bottom, but a little chopping around in this area will create a bear flag so the bulls would need to keep the pressure on, and push it above 4450 for a few days, to save the chart.