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tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
Yields and the dollar are slipping off of yesterday's big rallies, and stocks like that, and the PCE data which shows inflation still cooling.
Keep an eye on that bond market. The Bank of Japan may be manipulating their yield curve because the US bonds are looking so attractive compared to the theirs.
The bond market has always been more of a black box to me, but there are times when yields are more directly impacting the stocks market, and this may be one of those times.
Let's see if the bulls can push the S&P back above the prior highs (~ 4580) before Wednesday's Fed driven half day rally.
Keep an eye on that bond market. The Bank of Japan may be manipulating their yield curve because the US bonds are looking so attractive compared to the theirs.
The bond market has always been more of a black box to me, but there are times when yields are more directly impacting the stocks market, and this may be one of those times.
Let's see if the bulls can push the S&P back above the prior highs (~ 4580) before Wednesday's Fed driven half day rally.
Flat and mixed but mostly positive start to the new week and the final trading day in July. Yields and the dollar are down slightly, and the Transportation Index is in the red, but the big three indices are up modestly while small caps are leading and making a new high.
The price of oil is now over $81 a barrel and has been moving up almost every day since the late June low. It may be too low to be an issue, but it should start showing up more at the gas pumps.
The price of oil is now over $81 a barrel and has been moving up almost every day since the late June low. It may be too low to be an issue, but it should start showing up more at the gas pumps.
weatherweenie
Well-known member
If you look at the price of oil, compared to the price of gas, historically, it is baffling that the price of gas is as high as it is. In the past, when oil has been in the 70-80s, the price of gas has been below $3/gallon. Also interesting the record profits being booked by oil and gas companies.
Flat and mixed but mostly positive start to the new week and the final trading day in July. Yields and the dollar are down slightly, and the Transportation Index is in the red, but the big three indices are up modestly while small caps are leading and making a new high.
The price of oil is now over $81 a barrel and has been moving up almost every day since the late June low. It may be too low to be an issue, but it should start showing up more at the gas pumps.
Yes, but a lot of the price is taxes.
I paid $4.50 for a bottle of water the other day. :laugh:
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
Whenever global crude prices rise, prices at the pump rise instantly, even though that gasoline was bought and refined at the much lower price.
Whenever global crude prices fall....prices initially stay the same,industry saying "we bought and refined that fuel at a higher price".
Sometimes global crude prices fall or are steady and prices at the pump rise, whenever a "refinery suddenly goes down for maintenance".
Amazing how these refinery maintenance closures seem to almost always be occurring as the price of oil is falling.
Here in Utah...prices at the pump were steadily rising for several months this spring into summer, as the global oil price was FALLLING. Refinery issue we are told.
But when refineries are back up, the price at best stays the same, never seems to fall right away.
Petroleum Industry is a huge, corrupt cartel...the sooner we can ditch gasoline cars, the better off the American consumer will be.
Already halfway there personally, got a hybrid SUV...my mpg City went from 13 mpg from my old SUV...to 34 mpg City now.
destroyer7508
New member
Hello All! I'm new to the forum but just wanted to jump in with gas prices in Eastern Washington. About $4.70 to $4.80/gal for regular unleaded. :suspicious:
rdodson
Member
Whenever global crude prices rise, prices at the pump rise instantly, even though that gasoline was bought and refined at the much lower price.
Whenever global crude prices fall....prices initially stay the same,industry saying "we bought and refined that fuel at a higher price".
Sometimes global crude prices fall or are steady and prices at the pump rise, whenever a "refinery suddenly goes down for maintenance".
Amazing how these refinery maintenance closures seem to almost always be occurring as the price of oil is falling.
Here in Utah...prices at the pump were steadily rising for several months this spring into summer, as the global oil price was FALLLING. Refinery issue we are told.
But when refineries are back up, the price at best stays the same, never seems to fall right away.
Petroleum Industry is a huge, corrupt cartel...the sooner we can ditch gasoline cars, the better off the American consumer will be.
Already halfway there personally, got a hybrid SUV...my mpg City went from 13 mpg from my old SUV...to 34 mpg City now.
Oh Contrare my TSP friend.
Big Oil making lots of money, true
So is big Government and Big Natural Gas and wind turbine and solar Panels. My electric cost per kilowatt was 19.3¢ last month. Up 7.2% over the last 3 month average.
Not to mention the premium cost of an electric car, (off set by a tax deduction that is maximized by higher income taxpayers), higher insurance rate, installation of electric charge unit in garage....
It is all a big scam. Brought to you by Big Government and non-binary idiots running the country.
Welcome, destroyer! That sounds more like it. I live part time in a small destination casino community where they gouge the hell out of the freeway passers by... which means us locals pay those prices as well. :soapbox:
welcome to TSPTalk
I know it's boring but yields and the dollar are weighing on stocks again.
The 10-year yield is back over 4%, and the dollar gapped up above its 200-day MA. Add to that the new month - new direction tendency, and August's seasonality issues, and we have some weakness in stocks today.
Another busy week for earnings with Apple and Amazon highlighting on Thursday.
The 10-year yield is back over 4%, and the dollar gapped up above its 200-day MA. Add to that the new month - new direction tendency, and August's seasonality issues, and we have some weakness in stocks today.
Another busy week for earnings with Apple and Amazon highlighting on Thursday.
The Finch downgrade is shaking things up this morning, as we might expect. I think the reaction in DC is priceless as both sides point fingers at each other, which is basically the reason Finch made the downgrade -- Finch "expected fiscal deterioration over the next three years" and said repeated debt ceiling issues and "political standoffs and last-minute resolutions have eroded confidence in fiscal management."
We may have a double top in the 10-year yield. That doesn't mean a major top, but a possible double top pullback. An immediate breakout would be less likely but not out of the question given the situation.
The dollar is also up and again and I have been talking about this combination of strength in yields (4% on 10-year) and the dollar as a possible market anchor. The dollar is also nearing resistance, however, s what happens next in both is key.
The S&P 500 is pulling back to an area (or moving average) that has been holding for weeks, but at some point the 50 and 200-day EMAs are going to get tested - it's just a matter of when. The one thing that could get in the way are the relentless dip buyers. So far it has worked out for them, but we all know things are very extended and a meaningful pullback is due at some point.
We may have a double top in the 10-year yield. That doesn't mean a major top, but a possible double top pullback. An immediate breakout would be less likely but not out of the question given the situation.
The dollar is also up and again and I have been talking about this combination of strength in yields (4% on 10-year) and the dollar as a possible market anchor. The dollar is also nearing resistance, however, s what happens next in both is key.
The S&P 500 is pulling back to an area (or moving average) that has been holding for weeks, but at some point the 50 and 200-day EMAs are going to get tested - it's just a matter of when. The one thing that could get in the way are the relentless dip buyers. So far it has worked out for them, but we all know things are very extended and a meaningful pullback is due at some point.
Khotso
Active member
Whenever global crude prices rise, prices at the pump rise instantly, even though that gasoline was bought and refined at the much lower price.
Whenever global crude prices fall....prices initially stay the same,industry saying "we bought and refined that fuel at a higher price".
Sometimes global crude prices fall or are steady and prices at the pump rise, whenever a "refinery suddenly goes down for maintenance".
Amazing how these refinery maintenance closures seem to almost always be occurring as the price of oil is falling.
Here in Utah...prices at the pump were steadily rising for several months this spring into summer, as the global oil price was FALLLING. Refinery issue we are told.
But when refineries are back up, the price at best stays the same, never seems to fall right away.
Petroleum Industry is a huge, corrupt cartel...the sooner we can ditch gasoline cars, the better off the American consumer will be.
Already halfway there personally, got a hybrid SUV...my mpg City went from 13 mpg from my old SUV...to 34 mpg City now.
Out of curiosity, what make hybrid did you buy? My wife and I are considering electric/hybrid crossover SUV on our next vehicle. It's still a ways away so haven't really looked into options yet.
The 10-year yield blasted through the double top this morning, and the dollar is also up again, so the pressure on the stock market continues. Whether its high yields, the Fitch downgrade, or just a good old fashion overbought pullback, this was needed and perhaps overly expected, which is probably why it took so long.
This is day #3 of the pullback and with Apple and Amazon on deck after the bell, we will know soon enough if this was a buyable dip, or if it's going to be more serious.
This is day #3 of the pullback and with Apple and Amazon on deck after the bell, we will know soon enough if this was a buyable dip, or if it's going to be more serious.
As goes Apple?
Maybe not. The Nasdaq is lagging because Apple is getting walloped, but perhaps surprisingly, the rest of the market is holding up -- so far.
There are a few open gaps below that could be targets for Apple but support and the 50-day EMA were broken so this chart has some issues.
However, the NYSE is doing just fine at the moment with 2 stocks up for every one down. The Nasdaq has 4 times as many new 52-week lows than new highs today. That's a change.
Maybe not. The Nasdaq is lagging because Apple is getting walloped, but perhaps surprisingly, the rest of the market is holding up -- so far.
There are a few open gaps below that could be targets for Apple but support and the 50-day EMA were broken so this chart has some issues.
However, the NYSE is doing just fine at the moment with 2 stocks up for every one down. The Nasdaq has 4 times as many new 52-week lows than new highs today. That's a change.
FireWeatherMet
Well-known member
LMAO...I would much rather have a "7.2%" increase in petrol. than the 30% increase in pump prices here in UT the past few months.
Incoherent "Big Gov't" rambling aside, nothing comes close to the corrupt collusion of the Oil Cartels (Foreign & Domestic) to rip off American consumers.:notrust:
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