tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

We had a little breakout in the S-fund this morning, although it has come back below the neckline to address the gap it opened up on the higher open.

The I-fund is struggling on the rally in the dollar after the stronger than expected GDP report.

 

[nasa1974]

Unlike yesterday where it started red and finished green, I hope it stays green. Even a little. :worried:

 

[tsptalk]

More upside in the dollar and yields is putting a little pressure on stocks, particularly the I-fund, but the US stocks are battling back from two attempts by the bears to push things lower.

 

[tsptalk]

The market opened sharply lower this morning, but the dip buyers were close at hand, partially filling in the overhead gaps created.

Yields are up slightly, the dollar is down slightly.

There will be a lot of jockeying for position in from of this busy week of earnings and Wednesday's FOMC meeting.

 

[tsptalk]

Correction: The FOMC meeting is January 31 and February 1. I believe I had posted previously that it was Fed 1 and 2. Sorry about that.

 

[tsptalk]

 

[JTH]

Correction: The FOMC meeting is January 31 and February 1. I believe I had posted previously that it was Fed 1 and 2. Sorry about that.

Also, some large cap names reporting earnings this week.

Feb 2nd Apple, Google, Amazon, & Feb 1st Facebook

 

[tsptalk]

The Transports are leading on the upside with UPS up sharply. The chart continues to build on that right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders. These tend to break to the upside and being the market leader, it may have to if the January rally is going to keep going in February.

 

[tsptalk]

Explosive buying into the close the day before a rate hike. Fishy.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

 

[tsptalk]

Yields and the dollar opened lower, and stocks look tentative in front of today's FOMC meeting and decision on interest rates.

The Transports however, are attempting to follow the small caps to an inverted head and shoulder breakout.

Ironically, these two economically sensitive indices (small caps and transports) could be telling the Fed to continue with their hawkish approach to inflation.

 

[tsptalk]

The bear flag on the 10-year yield has broken down and heading toward the bottom of the bearish head and shoulders pattern. This is bullish for bonds and the F-fund.

 

[tsptalk]

No change in their interest rate policy. They increased by 0.25%, but Powell does sound more dovish. Stocks and bonds are rallying, the dollar is breaking down.

 

[tsptalk]

Two of the more difficult times to navigate the stock market and try to time it is when stocks are tanking and you wonder if you should try to catch the falling knife, and when stocks are running away from you and you are wondering if you should chase.

Unfortunately there isn't an easy answer. In 2020 we saw examples of both, straight down, straight up extremes, making it the most difficult market to trade than I ever dealt with.

This one isn't so bad yet but there is a lot of cash on the sidelines and bears who are underinvested, and they're all wondering the same thing. Should I chase or wait? That's probably fuel for more upside and the chasers can make some money, but eventually profit taking will kick in and the patient will get their turn.

Either way, it can be tough to watch if you're on the outside looking in.

 

[tsptalk]

I wonder if this is new to info to the Fed or did they know this in Wednesday's FOMC meetings and take it into consideration already? Stocks and bonds are down sharply.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 517,000 for January, far higher than the 187,000 market estimate.
The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% versus the estimate for 3.6%. That is the lowest jobless level since May 1969.

Leisure and hospitality added 128,000 jobs to lead all sectors. Other significant gainers were professional and business services (82,000), government (74,000) and health care (58,000).

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/03/jobs-report-january-2023-.html

The dollar is at a 3+ week high

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps

 

[tsptalk]

The outlier strong jobs report on Friday is continuing to push yields and the dollar higher, which is putting pressure on stocks.

The dollar broke above resistance but is bumping up against its 200-day EMA this morning.

It looks like the 10-year Treasury yield want to do a head test of its head and shoulders pattern.

 

[tsptalk]

Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak later today but earlier another Fed official, Neel Kashkari, said the Fed has not made enough progress with their interest rate hikes. That doesn't sound good.

Yields and the dollar are up slightly this morning, and stocks are stumbling. The index charts are bending but nothing has broken yet despite the 3 - 4 day decline - depending on the index. We're probably getting lose however, to a pivot point where the rally should either resume near support, or the recent breakout to higher highs will be a failure.

Oil is up for a second straight day, trading near $76 after last week's sharp decline.

 

[tsptalk]

The dollar may be telling the story. It broke above its red descending trading channel this month, but there's a blue channel and the 50 and 200-day EMAs right in its way now. Above 28 and the market could get cranky. Below 28 and the bulls may keep buying. There's a large gap near 27.50 that could get some attention.

 

[tsptalk]

Disney earnings are setting the tone this morning as 7000 jobs cuts seems to be the tune Wall Street wants to hear. Job cuts cut costs, raise earnings, and make the Fed happy, but I'm guessing those 7000 people are not happy.

Yields and the dollar are pulling back from resistance so, as of now, the descending trends continue here.

The I-fund is taking advantage of the weakness in the dollar and leading the way with a 1.2% gain this morning. It is still below the old support line, but that line is rising.

 

[JTH]

Yields and the dollar are pulling back from resistance so, as of now, the descending trends continue here.

Daily Dollar's interaction with the 50-Day SMA. Usually when I ring the register at the Wise.com exchange, the dollar goes higher