-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
tsptalk's Market Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
I would think yields would be plummeting on this news. "They" must have known the whole time - they being the trading firms that try get our money in the stock market.
Job Gains This Year Overstated by 1.1 Million
Job Gains This Year Overstated by 1.1 Million
Yields are up (bonds down) and the dollar is down sharply on a move by Japan to shift their yield curve policy.
Stocks are up early, but it is early and gains in this bearish environment are not easy to trust. But it is getting closer to the holidays and volume should start to dry up giving the bulls an advantage, although light volume can also be accompanied by big swings on headlines.
The Transports are lagging and the I-fund continues to show relative strength.
I'll be on the road after the TSP deadline today but I will be back to check in later, most likely after the close.
Stocks are up early, but it is early and gains in this bearish environment are not easy to trust. But it is getting closer to the holidays and volume should start to dry up giving the bulls an advantage, although light volume can also be accompanied by big swings on headlines.
The Transports are lagging and the I-fund continues to show relative strength.
I'll be on the road after the TSP deadline today but I will be back to check in later, most likely after the close.
A nice little rally right on time as the Santa Claus rally officially kicks off.
In previous years it wasn't the 21st exactly, but on average yes, it seems to be a good day for it to start being the Winter Solstice and all.
There is a lot of resistance in the 3900 area, which has been a key level going back further than even this chart shows, plus the 50-day EMA is in the neighborhood. There is also a small open gap just above 3950, so both are potential relief rally targets.
In previous years it wasn't the 21st exactly, but on average yes, it seems to be a good day for it to start being the Winter Solstice and all.
There is a lot of resistance in the 3900 area, which has been a key level going back further than even this chart shows, plus the 50-day EMA is in the neighborhood. There is also a small open gap just above 3950, so both are potential relief rally targets.
The weekly jobless claims came in a little better (fewer claims) than expected and the GDP for the 3rd quarter was raised sending the futures down as investors position themselves for contnued hawkishness from the Fed.
Initial Claims Actual: 216K | B.com Forecast: 222K
GDP - Third Estimate For: Q3 | Trading Impact: Low | Actual: 3.2% | B.com Forecast: 2.9%
That sent yields and the dollar up and the futures down giving us a red open this morning. The lighter volume is certainly keeping thins whippy and we'll have to see if the bulls and the Santa Claus rally will do any dip buying or if the 2022 bear market is back.
Initial Claims Actual: 216K | B.com Forecast: 222K
GDP - Third Estimate For: Q3 | Trading Impact: Low | Actual: 3.2% | B.com Forecast: 2.9%
That sent yields and the dollar up and the futures down giving us a red open this morning. The lighter volume is certainly keeping thins whippy and we'll have to see if the bulls and the Santa Claus rally will do any dip buying or if the 2022 bear market is back.
rdodson
Member
I do not feel re-assured, for some reason, but if I remember correctly, the 3rd year of a President is usually a gainer...do we just buy now and hold for the year? Why not, even if a recession comes the market will probably still end on a yup year.
Prior major bear market years all saw strength in the final week of the year.
That may work, but it's not what I plan to do.
T'was the crash before Christmas and ...
This now has a December 2018 feel to it where it just got worse and worse as Christmas drew closer. The trading day after Christmas in 2018 did trigger a monster rally, which marked a bottom. The situation isn't the same so it probably will not turn out the same, but it's surprising how quickly things can change, just like they did between yesterday and today.
This now has a December 2018 feel to it where it just got worse and worse as Christmas drew closer. The trading day after Christmas in 2018 did trigger a monster rally, which marked a bottom. The situation isn't the same so it probably will not turn out the same, but it's surprising how quickly things can change, just like they did between yesterday and today.
There's 3 hours to go but right now:
S&P 500 trading volume
Today: 1,094,118,000
Average: 4,515,739,206
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^GSPC?p=^GSPC
S&P 500 trading volume
Today: 1,094,118,000
Average: 4,515,739,206
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^GSPC?p=^GSPC
James48843
Well-known member
Stocks opened lower but are battling back in this lighter volume trading environment. Yields are spiking and the 10-year is over 3.8% again. The dollar was up early but has flipped back over and it seems the market is more interested in that than the higher yields. The Dow is up triple digits while the Nasdaq is lagging. The S&P and small caps are just slightly underwater although flipping between green and red. Gold, oil, and other commodities are also up on the weak dollar.
After a slightly positive open, it looks like some possible last minute tax selling of 2022 losers is keeping the pressure on the indices this morning.
The dollar was down early but bounced back to add to pricing pressure.
Yields are slightly lower for a change.
Slow action normally helps the bulls this time of year, but not yet this week.
I saw this tweet from Revshark this morning...
"Everyone is so anxious to flip a quick bounce that we can't even get one going"
The dollar was down early but bounced back to add to pricing pressure.
Yields are slightly lower for a change.
Slow action normally helps the bulls this time of year, but not yet this week.
I saw this tweet from Revshark this morning...
"Everyone is so anxious to flip a quick bounce that we can't even get one going"
Shenanigans in the final week to end a wild year for stocks? Was it the cooler than expected jobless claims number? Did millions of Covid infected Chinese people get better overnight in China? Did earnings estimates suddenly get better? Not likely. So I'd it is mostly shenanigans, but it was due.
The dollar and yields are down down helping the situation.
The dollar and yields are down down helping the situation.
The bulls are plugging away at the early sell off, but on the last trading day of the year it's more about investors positioning their accounts for the new year - rebalancing.
With stocks and bonds down this year, it's a little different than most years we've experienced.
Most professional traders are not playing today and it could get very whippy this afternoon, or extreme.
Yields and the dollar are up and that causes some pressure on stocks.
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
With stocks and bonds down this year, it's a little different than most years we've experienced.
Most professional traders are not playing today and it could get very whippy this afternoon, or extreme.
Yields and the dollar are up and that causes some pressure on stocks.
Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
Kind of a sluggish start to the new year after some strong overnight futures got turned on their heads. Yields are getting slammed and the dollar is up sending mixed messages.
I've been watching but some AutoTracker New Year issues have me under the hood today so you may not hear much from me.
Happy New Year, and good luck!!
I've been watching but some AutoTracker New Year issues have me under the hood today so you may not hear much from me.
Happy New Year, and good luck!!
This has been such an odd start to a new year. You can go back a long way and not see flat action like this continue, not only into a new year, but also during the final two weeks of the the prior year. The longer the consolidation lasts, the bigger the move out of it will be. Almost everything about this chart suggests a negative reaction - being in a bear market, below the 50-day EMA and in that bear flag, so to me it won't be surprising to see a move higher - even if it is a temporary fake out just to get us all leaning the wrong way.
The S&P is lagging the small caps and I fund today, and the I-fund continues to out pace all of the funds.
Bonds are up again and they are certainly in play this year with the potential for a recession increasing this year.
The S&P is lagging the small caps and I fund today, and the I-fund continues to out pace all of the funds.
Bonds are up again and they are certainly in play this year with the potential for a recession increasing this year.
Similar threads
- Article