tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

The dollar is popping this morning - right over the 50-day EMA, but that looks like a head and shoulders pattern potentially forming, which would tend to eventually break down below that neckline.

 

[tsptalk]

The small caps, Russell 2000 and S-fund's DWCPF, are both flirting with their 20-day EMAs. Those have been holding for the most part since this latest rip near the election started. We'll see if it's "different this time."

 

[tsptalk]

The head and shoulders on the dollar chart is looking quite clean. Wednesday's gap was filled this morning, and I suspect a move down to 24.35 is next. Commodities are probably the place to be, especially if the neckline breaks down..

 

[tsptalk]

Dollar breaking below the H&S...

Transports making new highs...

 

[tsptalk]

Yield on 10-year is up and at new highs, yet...

Small caps are racing higher too. So much for the growth concern.

 

[bmneveu]

The small caps, Russell 2000 and S-fund's DWCPF, are both flirting with their 20-day EMAs. Those have been holding for the most part since this latest rip near the election started. We'll see if it's "different this time."

Boingy boingy on the pogo stick. Nice find.

 

[Boghie]

It feels totally like institutional 'investing' and/or hedge fund 'investing'. Totally.

There are likely others on this site who can sleuth that activity out. But, that is a very large amount of buy pressure. If it is retirement funds than all is fine, if it is hedge funds you want to get out. They can move the market quickly.

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting... on a day with stocks down almost across the board, the Transports are up 0.87% and making new highs.

 

[tsptalk]

The S-fund (dwcpf) is not keeping pace with the Russell 2000 today. Big divergence.

 

[James48843]

There's your sign.
The big boys are breaking.

 

[jonfresno]

Bit more simpatico this morning..

The S-fund (dwcpf) is not keeping pace with the Russell 2000 today. Big divergence.

 

[tsptalk]

Big spike in the VIX this morning. The question is whether it can close above or below that 200-daty EMA.

 

[tsptalk]

The credit market ETF just went positive for the day.

 

[tsptalk]

Nice reversal. 10 minutes to go, but it looks like the Transports are actually going to close at an all-time high.

 

[tsptalk]

Credit market smarting today.

 

[tsptalk]

Gotta hold here.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are getting serious...

 

[tsptalk]

Yesterday's high (over 1.6%) and reversal in the 10-year yield may be a temporary peak. If not, the correction in stocks should continue. If it does start to pullback and try to fill that open gap, we could see a relief rally in stocks. The very early action on Friday shows the yield dipping below 1.5% again, so we see a little buying in the indices. There's lots of time for that to change however.

 

[tsptalk]

The S&P 500 is testing that 50-day EMA. Waiting for a bottom, is a lot like waiting for a pot of water to boil. It won't happen if you're watching it.

 

[bmneveu]

The S&P 500 is testing that 50-day EMA. Waiting for a bottom, is a lot like waiting for a pot of water to boil. It won't happen if you're watching it.

For me its usually watching for a boil over. It doesn't happen until right after you look away. Lol