tsptalk's Market Talk

[Bullitt]

A few centrist dems don't really see this stimulus being as critical as it was two months ago and $1.9T will be near impossible to pass.

On the other hand, markets keep marching higher despite the stimulus very likely being less than $1.9T. Seems there are more companies giving forward guidance this time around which is something many avoided in 2020, and by most accounts, the future looks bright.

Most commodities have been hit, but oil marches upward. Inflation signals are mixed.

Maybe that very quick 9% correction was the buying opportunity many had been waiting for after the November 2020 run up.

 

[tsptalk]

Sounds reasonable given the dollar's actions. But did I miss a 9% correction? I think it was more like half that?

 

[Bullitt]

Yes, you are correct, more like half that. It sure wasn't much of a buying window time wise. Jan 25 = 3855 >>> Jan 29 = 3714 >>> Feb 4 = ~3860.

I've heard some "pros" say that machines are so aggressive at buying dips now that the opportunities are not as long lasting. I'm not sure what the time frame is on that, if we're talking years or just since March. There does seem to be a constant bid under the market since March. Bad news in one area is overshadowed by good news in another.

 

[James48843]

I’m thinking the buying opportunity is a two-hour window, between 1 pm and 3 pm, once every 18 days.

This is crazy, and not sustainable. But I’m 100% in, so what the heck!


Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[tsptalk]

Perhaps the "sell the news" opportunity comes just before the stimulus figure is confirmed?

 

[tsptalk]

Where this closes will make a difference - above or below that resistance line.

The dollar is rolling over, but the 50-dat EMA may be there to catch it...

 

[tsptalk]

Trouble for the dollar again?

 

[tsptalk]

Is it just me, or is this weekly S-fund chart just getting comical at this point...

 

[Whipsaw]

FWIW, the weekly on a 1 year scale looks healthy... I could be wrong.

 

[weatherweenie]

Is the drop in the market allowed? :laugh:

 

[tsptalk]

FWIW, the weekly on a 1 year scale looks healthy... I could be wrong.

Not as insane, but frothy...

 

[nasa1974]

I'll ride this train as far as I can. Hopefully I get off at a station before the train wreck.

 

[Talan150]

Like Bugs Bunny on the falling elevator.

 

[SoonerCaniac]

Is it just me, or is this weekly S-fund chart just getting comical at this point...

Gosh Tom, I can't imagine why you would find this comical...

the weekly S-Fund is only ~36% above its 200-day EMA! :wink:

 

[bmneveu]

I'll ride this train as far as I can. Hopefully I get off at a station before the train wreck.

I will ride this train straight into a wall, and then just buy more.

 

[Whipsaw]

Like Bugs Bunny on the falling elevator.

Just wait till you're six inches from crashing, and then jump up! :cheesy:

 

[tsptalk]

Good sign for the bulls. Transports are flirting with their recent highs, making the head and shoulders formation less likely. Still a double top pullback possibility, however.

 

[tsptalk]

Wow someone wanted to see a positive close today. Post holiday reversal coming next week?

 

[dannyboy]

Wow someone wanted to see a positive close today. Post holiday reversal coming next week?

I’m not sure what Post holiday reversal vs pandemic stimulus will be??

 

[tsptalk]

As I mentioned in today's commentary, the flat top pattern has led to brief pullbacks in the S-fund over the last few months. Today's close is the key - above or below the flat top...