tsptalk's Market Talk

Another pop in the dollar keeping some pressure on things - especially the I-fund.

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The dollar is getting slammed on the "bigger checks" news. That's helping the EFA (I-fund) lead with a 1% gain so far this morning.

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Also, new high in HYG (Credit market) which is great news for stocks, but still some work to do to get passed that resistance.

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We can't seem to get all indices up on the same day. Small caps are lagging today.

DWCPF (S-fund) has a small open gap it may be eye-balling, or at least there could be some buying interest there if it pullback next week....

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The financials are having a mini breakout this morning, but still lagging the major indices and below their 2020 highs from back in February.

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Nice day for the I-fund, even though the dollar is flat. Breaking back above that old support is big, but still could be a possible double top. I don't know. Breaking that old support is a pretty healthy move.

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New highs today for the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq, but boy are things getting stretchy.

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The most stretched, the small caps, are lagging.
 
The dollar made a new low today, and if HYG (credit market) closes were it is now, would be at another closing high. Could be bullish, could be seasonal?

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I'm not sure if this is going to be a meaningful change in trend for the dollar, but if so, it could make a big difference.
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Good point. USD coming close to big support at 88 level. I don't think many are considering the risk of a dollar that stops falling.
 
I am definitely watching that dollar. Went to F today to lock in the gains. Probably will regret it tomorrow. But I do have a question. Why would people not just move their money out of TSP and into a direct rollover in E*TRADE? Then just buy the spy or whatever etf they wanted. Or stock. Then you can move as often as you want instead of twice a month. Just seems to make since to me, I could be completely wrong. Have not done anything yet. But looking into it.


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My take... I think a lot of retired TSP-ers who are more involved & knowing about investing do just that (roll-over $s out of TSP to IRA). I plan to do so, trying to decide how much and when to roll Traditional TSP into Roth IRA (& pay those taxes at that time). I'll keep some significant amount in TSP though, more so now after TSP withdrawal restrictions were eased a great deal a couple years ago. Also, there is no "cash" alternative to the G-fund - or tell me what that is (unless they toy with it and substantially decrease its return, as they've talked about seriously). Plus the Administrative costs for TSP is relatively low. Yes, I dislike the lack of investment choice in TSP, & particularly the IFT limits of time of day & #per month.
 
Tesla is up another 7.5% today to 877. Why not, huh? P/E is now about 1700. Estimated 1 year price target $450. :laugh:

Tesla is now in the S&P 500 and I believe it's the 5th largest weighted stock in the index, so if you want to know what's pushing the S&P higher...

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Crazy. Maybe this will finally be an island reversal gap as the last buyers get in.

Bitcoin actually doing the same thing as TSLA, but people tell me bitcoin is undervalued by some $100,000.

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A few of the not so obvious things I'm watching. HYG is in day two of a breakdown. 3 to 5 would confirm it for me.

The yield on the 10-year has been popping recently after the December consolidation. Good sign for the economy, but the stock market may not like it as much.

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The price of lumber has been a good "tell" for stocks, and today if fell through its 50-day EMA. This is yesterday's closing chart and I added today's decline.

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I am definitely watching that dollar. Went to F today to lock in the gains. Probably will regret it tomorrow. But I do have a question. Why would people not just move their money out of TSP and into a direct rollover in E*TRADE? Then just buy the spy or whatever etf they wanted. Or stock. Then you can move as often as you want instead of twice a month. Just seems to make since to me, I could be completely wrong. Have not done anything yet. But looking into it.


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You can't.

The best you can do is roll-over it to another retirement account such as a Traditional IRA. You can do that when you quit or when you retire.

Also, while I am not certain of the trading expenses I would bet that the annual expenses for TSP are significantly less than E*Trade. That doesn't mean your idea is bad - I will do it on either quitting or retiring. But, it does mean that you will have to have a greater return to overcome the additional fees. I think the TSP annual expenses are something like 0.17%.
 
A bit old but still gives an idea.

https://federalnewsnetwork.com/mike...t/2017/02/tsp-fees-dont-make-a-78000-mistake/

In my case, I am close to retiring (<2 yrs). What I read There are couple of major points that can/will effect my final decision. But I will not close out my TSP.

From what I read, and hopefully readers will correct if wrong,

1) your 401K is protected from bankruptcy and lawsuits while IRA's are not. So if you move out of TSP into an IRA you could leave yourself vulnerable. As many posters here and on the net point out, you can transfer your TSP (but not close account) into a brokerage, do what you need to do, then transfer back into TSP. I am working on trying to fully understand the details and steps on this so I can do a backdoor Roth. Then bring it all back onto TSP (I think - see #2).

2) I am a widower, so when I die, my TSP will be cashed out, closed and sent to my beneficiaries in a lump check. Not sure if taxes are taken out or not on them. Of course your beneficiaries can have a "Beneficiary" account open(ed) and have the money sent there. But they will have to deal with the Secure Act in RMD's.

Golfer
 
I think the TSP annual expenses are something like 0.17%.

The TSP annual expense ratio USED to be much lower prior to 2008’s move to restrict TSP interfund transfers. .

Since they limited trades to two per month, TSP net annual expense costs have doubled. Last year the net Annual Expense Rate of the TSP funds was 0.42%.

That’s still a relatively very low cost, but has moved closer to other types of investments. It’s not as inexpensive as it used to be, or could be, if they simply allowed more frequent moves.


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