tsptalk's Market Talk

The Dow and S&P are holding up just fine so far today, but once again the transports and small caps are lagging badly and getting hit to the tune of -1.0% ...

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The recently lagging Transports and small caps are leading today. The Transports are up big but stalled and dipped back a bit at the 50/200 EMA, while smalls caps broke back above its 50-day EMA.

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Day 2 for small caps and Transports... Boom! The Russell 2000 (which is rebalancing today) and the Transport Index are up 1.0%% and 1.4% respectively here midday.
 
The small caps / Russell 2000 has nearly filled its open gap already. The question is whether it will fill and go, or just make a peak here. It was quite a rally from Last week's low to this morning's high (more than 4% in 3 days). Does it have anything left?

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We're seeing a pop in the dollar this morning, right up to the old support lines that broke down recently...

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Follow up: Gap on Russell has been filled:

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The small caps / Russell 2000 has nearly filled its open gap already. The question is whether it will fill and go, or just make a peak here. It was quite a rally from Last week's low to this morning's high (more than 4% in 3 days). Does it have anything left?

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Copper signal?

Is the price copper signaling trouble ahead? Looking at this 5 year weekly chart, copper seems to peak before stocks do by a couple to several months. When they are diverging (copper going down while stocks are rallying) the stock market can lag that move, but tends to follow eventually.

With the S&P 500 near all-time highs and copper's chart looking like a head and shoulders pattern forming within a downtrend, how long can stocks diverge?

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Wednesday's small gap (red) has been filled. Is that it for the downside, or are the other gaps (blue) now targets?

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Remember the days when good news was good, and bad news was bad? Not anymore. The market is throwing a little "I want my interest rate cuts!" tantrum.
 
The S&P is trying to hang onto to that old high for support, while that open gap is luring it down...

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There's a very clear bull flag on the Russell 2000 small cap chart. They tend to break to the upside, and we saw that happen in May, but it was short-lived as it rolled over shortly after the breakout.

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Bespoke @bespokeinvest


SPY is currently on pace for its narrowest intraday high-low range since last September while QQQ is on pace for its narrowest range since December 2017.
 
I'm digging the consolidation in the Russell 2000 and the fact that it's holding above those key moving averages, but breaking the rising channel is a red flag.

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The trend continues today. Although the Nasdaq is at all-time highs, currently today there are only 88 Nasdaq stocks making new 52-week highs, while surprisingly 81 are making new 52-week lows. In the prior two days the new lows outnumbered the new highs. Seems very odd.


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Small caps just broke out of that bull flag. That's a nice looking move, but there's still some overhear resistance.

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Boy, small caps have sure had a mind of their own recently. The major indices haven't been moving together consistently lately.

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Another tariff tantrum after Trump tweets US adding more tariffs on China...

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The 50-day EMA gets tested for a second time...

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