tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

The FANG stocks are getting hit again. I suppose money managers are lightening up to avoid showing 33% losses in stocks like AAPL and NFLX in their portfolios. But they'll probably buy them back in January. It could also be tax selling related from retail investors.

 

[wavecoder]

Definitely ugliest market since 2008, but that time it felt like a few monster down days. This time it's like death by 1000 papercuts

 

[tsptalk]

Yeah, still waiting for one of those 2008 monster relief rallies.

 

[pmaloney]

I'm sure we'll get some big rallys if the S&P looses another 1000 points and goes to 2008 levels.
Have a Merry Christmas and pray for Santa!:smile:​

 

[wavecoder]

Anyone on this site trade the VIX? Everytime I think about it I always feel a rush of fear that changes my mind lol.

 

[tsptalk]

After a few bad experiences, the only time I buy a VIX ETF is to hedge a long position like SSO or TNA.

 

[tsptalk]

This market seems to be sniffing out something that we have not even heard about yet. There's something in the air besides rate hikes and tariffs. I don't know what it is but it reminds me of when stocks declined 10% in the days LEADING UP TO 9/11.

Not that we'll have another 9/11, but I'll be on the lookout for something newsworthy soon to make this make sense.

Either that or we should see a relief rally soon. Even in the worst of bear markets, snap back rallies up to the 200-day avg. are normal....

 

[exnavyew]

This didn't help:

Dow Jones plunges after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin comments on banks​

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/dow-jones...secretary-144706591--abc-news-topstories.html

 

[wavecoder]

[FONT=&quot]
This didn't help:

Dow Jones plunges after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin comments on banks[/FONT]

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/dow-jones...secretary-144706591--abc-news-topstories.html

No, if anything it looked like the plunge protection team got it wrong and hit the short sell button instead lol.

In my experience so far, I've always performed better when blocking out the news and outside noise and just traded according to what the charts said. As much as possible I try to put myself in a black hole when making decisions, just me and the chart. I'm fully convinced that news and headlines are there to fear or greed people into bad positions.

 

[tsptalk]

Is it closed? Shew! I didn't want to say anything today to jinx it.

[big exhale!]

:35:

 

[SoonerCaniac]

Is it closed? Shew! I didn't want to say anything today to jinx it.

[big exhale!]

:35:

What were you saying about bear-market rallies being explosive? Phew, indeed!

Sent from my Moto G (5) Plus using Tapatalk

 

[bmneveu]

Clawing back slowly after the big drop at the open. The bulls are fighting back.

 

[tsptalk]

I've been looking at chart all day, particularly the action surrounding bad Decembers going back to 1950 to see what happens in January after losses in December. Unfortunately there doesn't seem to be much of a pattern. Of course there aren't a whole lot of negative Decembers.

We had everything from bad December with a "V" bottom to start January, like in 1987...

To a weak December that continue lower in January, like in 1982...

And there's a little of everything in between.

 

[tsptalk]

That's got to be one of the strongest 90 minutes of trading to end a day that I've I've seen in a long time, if ever.

 

[exnavyew]

An observation: On 12/26 at 10:45am the SP500 dipped just under 2350 and then it was off to the races.
Today (12/27) at 2:16pm the SP500 dipped just under 2400 and again it was off to the races. FWIW.

 

[tsptalk]

A minor breakdown in the VIX below rising support line (which is parallel to the one in Oct.), with a little more support near 26.0...

 

[tsptalk]

Last few days (weeks?) have been a day trader's dream, but a swing trader's nightmare - especially when you have to make your transaction before noon ET.

What you think you are paying, or selling, for something at one price, may be completely different at the close.

 

[tsptalk]

Wow, small caps just caught a bid. They've been trailing badly all day but making a comeback. Maybe the January Effect will work this year?

 

[badgerland]

i'll take +0.20 for the year considering this insane market and volatility - happy new years everyone

 

[tsptalk]

That was quite a run from the morning lows. It probably took a lot of energy so we'll see if the bulls run out of steam and allow the bears back in.

These first two days of the year are generally bullish, but can be tricky, as I've been talking about in my commentary for weeks now.

The S&P 500 was down about 9% in the year 2000. That's the last time we saw a single digit loss for a year. The start of the next year was tricky. The 1st trading day in 2001 saw the S&P down 2.80%. Ugly, and a bad start to the new year, a year that would see another 12% decline in the S&P 500. But the tricky part was that the S&P 500 gained 5.01% on the second trading day in January that year.

https://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/tsptalk/4603-new-year-new-direction.html