tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

A gap down open has been filled already. The bulls will try to make this early reversal hold, and there was a little support at this morning's low, bit now that the gap is filled, the bear will likely try to make another move down. The battle is on again. The bears have the upper hand as of now, but the bulls may try to make a move some time this week.

 

[tsptalk]

The Financials ended last week on a very low note - 52-week lows and a negative reversal day. They opened lower again but are trying to bounce back, but so far it has basically just filled in the between the support and resistance areas.

 

[wavecoder]

Plunge protection team must have already went on vacation, SPX close today was at a new low for 2018. IWM and XLF are getting hammered, I don't think the outlook is pretty atm. I'm not touching S or C fund with a 20 foot pole right now.

 

[shitepoke]

Tom- if ya have a moment...what is next support for SPX falling knife?
EJJ

 

[1965Vintage]

Plunge protection team must have already went on vacation, SPX close today was at a new low for 2018. IWM and XLF are getting hammered, I don't think the outlook is pretty atm. I'm not touching S or C fund with a 20 foot pole right now.

I just got done cutting my 20 foot pole up into 10 little pieces so I wouldn't be tempted to use it!

 

[wavecoder]

Tom- if ya have a moment...what is next support for SPX falling knife?
EJJ

Here's the weekly SPX chart, lines in red are where I see possible support levels. We're near one right now and bounced off the February low levels. Though the thing that's concerning to me, is although it bounced off that low level, we did make a lower close this time around. Not sure if I'm ready to catch the knife yet.

SPX


Small caps are even looking more worse for wear. IWM has been the leader in the down moves since this trend started, so I've been making a lot of my decisions on the direction of the S&P with a little weight toward what IWM was doing recently. On its weekly chart, it looks like it cracked below support and is moving lower. Based on what's been happening, there's a good chance the S&P follows it down. I keep remembering Birchtree always mentioning that large caps outperform small caps when a bull run is about to end, we've been seeing that for the good part this year imo.

IWM

 

[tsptalk]

We're seeing some relief today. Stocks were due for a bounce and it could be the start of the Santa Claus rally, but with oil breaking down below $48 today, and the credit market down again, it's a little cringe-worthy. The close will be interesting. If the gains in stocks hold (and close near the highs), that will be big.

 

[tsptalk]

This is about where the S&P stopped yesterday so it could be key. A break above could trigger a quick spike to the next resistance area or that small 2-point open gap near 2635 - but it has to break first and the bears may put on some pressure near 2575 again.

 

[tsptalk]

... but it has to break first and the bears may put on some pressure near 2575 again.

You can see on the intraday S&P futures 15 minute chart, the bears making their move near 2575. I'm guessing the bulls will try again, but will the Fed cooperate?

 

[tsptalk]

You can see on the intraday S&P futures 15 minute chart, the bears making their move near 2575. I'm guessing the bulls will try again, but will the Fed cooperate?

It didn't take them long...

 

[wavecoder]

Anyone else feel like waiting for the fed announcement is like waiting for earnings reports for the broad market?

 

[wavecoder]

Jesus christ that didn't take long

 

[quabit]

That didn't play out to well. Jeez maybe this is the I feel like puking stage. I know I do.

 

[tsptalk]

Jeez maybe this is the I feel like puking stage. I know I do.

Thanks. That was the last indicator I was waiting for. uke::ugh:

 

[tsptalk]

The lows in the S&P this morning are touching the bottom of the large descending parallel channel. It could be a place for a bounce, but of course it could also ride the support down without a bounce. That assumes it doesn't breakdown, which it certainly can in a capitulation-like downturn. Not much help but I thought I'd point it out.

 

[tsptalk]

Fast forward 10 minutes...

 

[tsptalk]

Some possible longer term landing zones. Not that there can't be short-term rallies in the interim...

 

[James48843]

Damn that's getting ugly, isnt' it?


(I'm still strapping in for the roller coaster ride tomorrow)

 

[tsptalk]

The Dow was down 680-points at the lows. Was that enough to call it a capitulation? I don't know. That was a 3% loss for the day, a little worse that the 2% drops we've gotten used to, as Sniper noted a week or so ago.

 

[tsptalk]

After the bounce off the lows on Thursday, this rally failure this morning feels "flushy".