tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

S-fund testing the 50-day EMA right now...

 

[FireWeatherMet]

S-fund testing the 50-day EMA right now...

It does look like the downturn has 2 legs, including a dead cat bounce today, which, along with tickling the 50 Day, would indicate that we're close to at least a short term turnaround.
Of course I'm partially biased because I went back in the -S- Monday. lol

 

[James48843]

dang- it didn't "rat tail" at the last minute.

Which tells me we aren't done.

Arrrrggh.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

dang- it didn't "rat tail" at the last minute.

Which tells me we aren't done.

Arrrrggh.

Yeah,

Getting these big 1%+ drop days, when (other than generic trade war rhetoric) no one really can pinpoint why, is pretty disconcerting. That, and being nearly 6 months since our most recent high.
I jumped back in because I wanted to be in and have 2 full moves in July, now I'm questioning that rationale. :notrust:

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps (RUT) is trying to hold at the 50-day EMA...

While the Transports are breaking below the 200-day EMA. The airlines and shipping stocks are getting beat up again, so it may be oil again, which is making another multi-year high this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

The Financials are making an attempt to break above some key resistance this morning. This could just be part of a typical pre-holiday reversal where after the holiday the bigger trend resumes, so I'll be more impressed if the upside continues after the July 4 holiday (next Wed.) In the meantime, things are obviously looking good today so far.

 

[tsptalk]

30 minutes to go and it looks like it's going to be a wile close as the 2nd quarter comes to an end. After a big early rally, the financials have given back a lot of gains. I can see this as money managers don't want to show them in their portfolios, but perhaps on Monday, the start of the 3rd quarter, they will be buying these bargains up again.

 

[tsptalk]

And booom!

Well, it filled the morning gap. New month on Monday, possibly new direction, although an ugly open on Monday could be what is needed for capitulation in the financials.

 

[tsptalk]

OK, the gaps are filled. Now what? New highs? Reversal?

 

[userque]

OK, the gaps are filled. Now what? New highs? Reversal?

Yes.

 

[tsptalk]

We've seen early rallies fail recently in the Financials, but so far so good for the XLF this moring as it trades back above the 200-day EMA. It's been two weeks since it last closed above it.

 

[tsptalk]

Oh, and the Transports are also trying to join the party as it was still stuck in that bearish looking flag until this morning.

Although technically, it could still be in that flag...

 

[tsptalk]

Although technically, it could still be in that flag...

Now I think we can safely say that the bear flag is broken... barring any nasty close. :27:

 

[tsptalk]

The small caps are hitting a bit of a wall here at the double top. This is normal as would a little pullback be here, but it may not last long. Small caps seem to be more momentum driven.

In 2016, for example, there were more breakouts than pullbacks at the double tops...

 

[tsptalk]

A few interesting things I see in early trading this morning...

The EFA is back below the 200-day EMA...

The Financials fell to the 200-day EMA, held, and bounced...

The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund filled a small gap and reversed up again ...

 

[tsptalk]

It looked like a disaster for the financials this morning after some earnings reports were released as they fell hard through the 200-day EMA again. Since then the XLF has bounced back to a modest loss of less than .5% and is currently 0.01 below the 200-day EMA.

 

[tsptalk]

The battle for 2800 continues today....

The Financials are up big and moved above the 50-day EMA this morning. The 50-day simple average (red) is in play now.

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps are lagging and the Russell 2000 is trying to hold onto the 20-day EMA. It's still in an uptrend but the fact that it didn't make a new high may be warning, even if only temporary. That may be a bull flag but it needs to hold here.

 

[tsptalk]

Small caps are bouncing back today and remain in that bull flag.

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting move above the channel resistance line, but it is still up against the 50-day EMA. It's possible that today's rally in EFA is being triggered by volatility in the dollar after the president's currency comments over the last two days.