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Tspgo_com Account Talk
- Thread starter tspgo_com
- Start date
tspgo_com
Active member
imported post
cowboy wrote:
Thank you and good luck to you too.
TSPGO!
cowboy wrote:
We move as the funds trigger. As of as COB on Monday we will be fully invested. Fully investedfor those followingthe http://www.tspgo.comconservative strategy (5-10 Rule)means 0% in G, 10% in F, 20% in C, 30% in S and 40% in I. We might be taking some profit this week because we are expecting some retracing. Once that minor retracing takes place we should be moving fast toward the goal which is above 1250.
Thank you and good luck to you too.
TSPGO!
imported post
Great site and alot of sweat...better, Sweet!
Question, on what you said on the retracing and "we might be taking some profit" , is the "we" you personally (and the5-10 rule) or are you referring to the market in general as a collective "we". Just wondering if you stay the course with the 5-10 or pull the trigger before there is a signal to sell in anticipation of the market sentiment to take some profit(s)? Hope that was somewht clear.
Again, nice site and for all appearances and performance charts, nice returns!
Great site and alot of sweat...better, Sweet!
Question, on what you said on the retracing and "we might be taking some profit" , is the "we" you personally (and the5-10 rule) or are you referring to the market in general as a collective "we". Just wondering if you stay the course with the 5-10 or pull the trigger before there is a signal to sell in anticipation of the market sentiment to take some profit(s)? Hope that was somewht clear.
Again, nice site and for all appearances and performance charts, nice returns!
tspgo_com
Active member
imported post
Gritz wrote:
The "we" applies to both. The S&P (and the C and S) just broke out of an ascending triangle. Retracing is expected. The retracing should trigger a sell signal and we (5-10 Rule followers) would be getting out and waiting for the buy signal on the rebound. If it happens to be that this is the beginning of an upward parabolic movement and it does not look back, we are in for the ride.
Gritz wrote:
Thank you.
The "we" applies to both. The S&P (and the C and S) just broke out of an ascending triangle. Retracing is expected. The retracing should trigger a sell signal and we (5-10 Rule followers) would be getting out and waiting for the buy signal on the rebound. If it happens to be that this is the beginning of an upward parabolic movement and it does not look back, we are in for the ride.
tspgo_com
Active member
imported post
The F-Fund triggered a sell signal (5-10 Rule). See chartsathttp://www.tspgo.comfor details.
Order entered at 10:50 pm on 3/08/05
Position effective on 3/09/05:
G = 10
F= 0
C=20
S=30
I=40
TSPGO!
The F-Fund triggered a sell signal (5-10 Rule). See chartsathttp://www.tspgo.comfor details.
Order entered at 10:50 pm on 3/08/05
Position effective on 3/09/05:
G = 10
F= 0
C=20
S=30
I=40
TSPGO!
tspgo_com
Active member
imported post
cowboy wrote:
(See the C-Fund projection chart above on this page) Technically you could get inC, S, and Inow and before the end of March you should have at least 15 points in theC alone. Certain of this fact I still follow the triggers. This practicewill help keep profit when the expected big drop comes.
Good night and happy trading tomorrow.
TSPGO!
cowboy wrote:
TA indicates that we are set for the rebound. My expectations are that theF, C, andS are ready for the rebound. The next stop should be around SPX 1238. I was expecting the S&P to retrace down to 1213 for amore energetic rebound but .. it did not happen. Logistically I should not be getting out of the F-Fund but I have to stick to the rule.
(See the C-Fund projection chart above on this page) Technically you could get inC, S, and Inow and before the end of March you should have at least 15 points in theC alone. Certain of this fact I still follow the triggers. This practicewill help keep profit when the expected big drop comes.
Good night and happy trading tomorrow.
TSPGO!
imported post
If c and s price drop through the 5-day line, as it appears they will, do you still feel the rebound projection in your chart will be as much (15 pts) ? And if so, I accpet what you said about staying true to the rule, but if it the c fund is going to rebound as projected wouldn't you be just as well of to stay put and not sell -- unless of course the break through the 5-day is indicating a sharper fall than projected, in which case you save yourself some further losses. Just trying to learn, hope I didn't make thistoo confusing. Appreciate your work.
If c and s price drop through the 5-day line, as it appears they will, do you still feel the rebound projection in your chart will be as much (15 pts) ? And if so, I accpet what you said about staying true to the rule, but if it the c fund is going to rebound as projected wouldn't you be just as well of to stay put and not sell -- unless of course the break through the 5-day is indicating a sharper fall than projected, in which case you save yourself some further losses. Just trying to learn, hope I didn't make thistoo confusing. Appreciate your work.
TEUFEL HUNDEN
Member
imported post
I see you changed your site. Is the SMA 1 and SMA 2 set at the 5 and 10 respectively?
It looks like it is, just confirming.
Have you considered the EMA?
[font=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]EMA[/b]
Moving averages are among the most popular technical indicators. The traditional interpretation of moving averages focuses on price movement relative to the average itself. Investors are typically "bullish" when the price moves above its moving average and "bearish" when the price falls below its moving average. Moving averages are also very useful in smoothing noisy data. Applying a 200-bar moving average, for example, will give you a clear view of a security's long-term historical trend.
A Simple Moving Average (SMA) is calculated by adding the closing prices for the most recent n intervals of time (or "bars") and then dividing by n. For example, a 21-bar moving average references the closing price of a security over the past 21 bars. The indicator sums all 21 closing prices and divides by 21, which produces the average price over the past 21 bars. The SMA gives equal weight to each bar.
Some market technicians believe that more weight should be attributed to more recent price action. These analysts may prefer to use the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) because it does just this. For a more detailed discussion of EMA and how it is calculated, see Thomas Meyers, The Technical Analysis Course (Chicago: Irwin, 1989).
[/font]
I see you changed your site. Is the SMA 1 and SMA 2 set at the 5 and 10 respectively?
It looks like it is, just confirming.
Have you considered the EMA?
[font=Arial,Helvetica,sans-serif]EMA[/b]
Moving averages are among the most popular technical indicators. The traditional interpretation of moving averages focuses on price movement relative to the average itself. Investors are typically "bullish" when the price moves above its moving average and "bearish" when the price falls below its moving average. Moving averages are also very useful in smoothing noisy data. Applying a 200-bar moving average, for example, will give you a clear view of a security's long-term historical trend.
A Simple Moving Average (SMA) is calculated by adding the closing prices for the most recent n intervals of time (or "bars") and then dividing by n. For example, a 21-bar moving average references the closing price of a security over the past 21 bars. The indicator sums all 21 closing prices and divides by 21, which produces the average price over the past 21 bars. The SMA gives equal weight to each bar.
Some market technicians believe that more weight should be attributed to more recent price action. These analysts may prefer to use the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) because it does just this. For a more detailed discussion of EMA and how it is calculated, see Thomas Meyers, The Technical Analysis Course (Chicago: Irwin, 1989).
[/font]
tspgo_com
Active member
imported post
Gritz wrote:
Good observation. You are right. It makes sense to stay put if C is going to rebound as projected. However, to beat the market we need to have Entry and Exit points and adhere to them. We need to be consistent and almost mechanicallypull the trigger wheneverour "Entry" and "Exit" points are hit.It avoid feelings getting in our way. We might make a couple of winning trades by not obeying our "Entry and Exit" points but on the long run the market would eat us alive. To come ahead we need to have astrategy with defined entry and exit points and stick to them regardless of feelings.
By sticking tothe "Entry and Exit" points I might miss a couple of points of the rebound but that's like the premium you pay for an insurance policy in case something unexpected happens.
Thank you for your comments.
Happy trading.
TSPGO!
Gritz wrote:
The move to 13.32 has not been negated. There is a little bit of concern that if the S&P closes below1200 this week, we might be heading down to the next support level and rebound from there. The target and the time frame remain the same (end of the month) (see what's ahead at http://www.tspgo.com).
Good observation. You are right. It makes sense to stay put if C is going to rebound as projected. However, to beat the market we need to have Entry and Exit points and adhere to them. We need to be consistent and almost mechanicallypull the trigger wheneverour "Entry" and "Exit" points are hit.It avoid feelings getting in our way. We might make a couple of winning trades by not obeying our "Entry and Exit" points but on the long run the market would eat us alive. To come ahead we need to have astrategy with defined entry and exit points and stick to them regardless of feelings.
By sticking tothe "Entry and Exit" points I might miss a couple of points of the rebound but that's like the premium you pay for an insurance policy in case something unexpected happens.
Thank you for your comments.
Happy trading.
TSPGO!
tspgo_com
Active member
imported post
F-Fund: Broke the 10.42 support.
C-Fund: Triggered a sell signal and broke the 12.93
S-Fund: Triggered a sell signal and broke the 14.61 support.
I- Fund: Holding above 15.85 support (See http://www.tspgo.com)
Order entered on 03-10-05 at 8:16 am
Position effective 03-10-05:
G = 60,
F=0,
C=0,
S=0,
I=40
TSPGO!
F-Fund: Broke the 10.42 support.
C-Fund: Triggered a sell signal and broke the 12.93
S-Fund: Triggered a sell signal and broke the 14.61 support.
I- Fund: Holding above 15.85 support (See http://www.tspgo.com)
Order entered on 03-10-05 at 8:16 am
Position effective 03-10-05:
G = 60,
F=0,
C=0,
S=0,
I=40
TSPGO!
tspgo_com
Active member
imported post
TEUFEL HUNDEN wrote:
Initially I considered using the EMA. However, the difference is almost insignificant when dealing with fast moving MA's ( anything below 15). The calculation to include the constant to eliminate the statistical difference between the TSP fund andthe counterpart it follows is cumbersome when working with EMA's.
Thank you for the observation
Happy trading.
TSPGO!
TEUFEL HUNDEN wrote:
I received several request to remove the 20 and the 50 MA'sfrom the graphs and to include the date on the graph. These changes make the graph looks different. I also reduced its size.
Initially I considered using the EMA. However, the difference is almost insignificant when dealing with fast moving MA's ( anything below 15). The calculation to include the constant to eliminate the statistical difference between the TSP fund andthe counterpart it follows is cumbersome when working with EMA's.
Thank you for the observation
Happy trading.
TSPGO!
tspgo_com
Active member
imported post
5 - 10 Rule Position: G = 60, F=0, C=0, S=0, I=40
Short Term Outlook: We are at a crossroad that should be defined early this week. The S&P is sitting just a few points above the 1195 uptrend line. If it goes below 1195 it is likely that it would head down to the next uptrend line around 1156-1163. The long term outlookisstill the same (see What's Ahead at http://www.tspgo.com) except that if the S&P breaks belows 1195 it would take a little bit longer to hit our goal in the 1250+ area.
Good luck to all
TSPGO!
5 - 10 Rule Position: G = 60, F=0, C=0, S=0, I=40
Short Term Outlook: We are at a crossroad that should be defined early this week. The S&P is sitting just a few points above the 1195 uptrend line. If it goes below 1195 it is likely that it would head down to the next uptrend line around 1156-1163. The long term outlookisstill the same (see What's Ahead at http://www.tspgo.com) except that if the S&P breaks belows 1195 it would take a little bit longer to hit our goal in the 1250+ area.
Good luck to all
TSPGO!
TEUFEL HUNDEN
Member
imported post
tspgo_com wrote:
Still using your site, thanks again.
100% I
tspgo_com wrote:
Yes I noticed that also. I use the SMA as well.
Still using your site, thanks again.
100% I
FundSurfer
Well-known member
imported post
Thanks for posting TSPGO. It was very interesting to read your theory (system). I actually use something similar but I used number of days negative or positive once I pass a target buy or sell criteria to either sell or buy. I've found that it gets me a little ahead of the curve. My problem has been a tendency to listen to too many "voices" and react emotionally and toss system out the window. When I do, I get whacked.
As to tracking how others are doing, I've been doing that for awhile and it isn't for competitive reasons (If it was, my ego would be crushed by now). The reasons I pay attention to how others are doing is so that I can learn from others philosophies. If you check the Tally page, you'll also see that I track number of moves. To me, the method that makes fewer moves and has good returns is safer. However, there is something to be said for someone who makes a bunch of moves, takes a bunch of risk, and hits the ball out of the park. I have a lot of respect for both. It looks to me that you make a bunch of moves, but this is because you are actually using 4 different systems (same basic system used individually for each fund).
As to your automation of your process, excel is fairly easy to create macros to make repetitive tasks easier and quicker. I also was a Lotus guy 12 years ago and finally switched because my office switched to MS Office and I was forced to switch. (Although, I still do sneak back to do some things in DOS, that you just can't do easily in windows.) You could probably get a macro to take you to the point that your charts are created and you'd still have to draw your lines by hand.
Have you back tested your system? How far?
Thanks for posting TSPGO. It was very interesting to read your theory (system). I actually use something similar but I used number of days negative or positive once I pass a target buy or sell criteria to either sell or buy. I've found that it gets me a little ahead of the curve. My problem has been a tendency to listen to too many "voices" and react emotionally and toss system out the window. When I do, I get whacked.
As to tracking how others are doing, I've been doing that for awhile and it isn't for competitive reasons (If it was, my ego would be crushed by now). The reasons I pay attention to how others are doing is so that I can learn from others philosophies. If you check the Tally page, you'll also see that I track number of moves. To me, the method that makes fewer moves and has good returns is safer. However, there is something to be said for someone who makes a bunch of moves, takes a bunch of risk, and hits the ball out of the park. I have a lot of respect for both. It looks to me that you make a bunch of moves, but this is because you are actually using 4 different systems (same basic system used individually for each fund).
As to your automation of your process, excel is fairly easy to create macros to make repetitive tasks easier and quicker. I also was a Lotus guy 12 years ago and finally switched because my office switched to MS Office and I was forced to switch. (Although, I still do sneak back to do some things in DOS, that you just can't do easily in windows.) You could probably get a macro to take you to the point that your charts are created and you'd still have to draw your lines by hand.
Have you back tested your system? How far?
tspgo_com
Active member
imported post
FundSurfer wrote:
I am looking for a way to uplooad the data in my website and make itinteractive so visitors can benefit from it. Iwant to do itto the extent that I don't have to upload my graphs every day. I saw something similar to what I am looking for at http://www.tspmoney.com but my expertise is very limited in the area of web publishing and I don't know how it is done.
I tried using the TSPtalk spreadsheet but I got discouraged because after I spent a lot time (literally hours) inputting all my transactions from last year, Pyriel made me aware that I was not inputing the data correctly. I gave up and decided to wait for you or Pyriel to post my numbers. Then I will ask for a copy of your (my) spreasheet to see how the entries should be made. I would like to post the TSPtalk spreadsheet in my website but for the sake of those who visit http://www.tspgo.com I need to make sure that theinformation is accurate.
Do you have a spreadsheet where you can track several participants at the same time? If you do, would you e-mail it to me?. I am trying to find a way to track the performance of each of my strategies in one place.
I have been actively trading my TSP since June 2003. I do lots of day trading, swing trading and options onthe side. Proportionally speaking, I have done a heck of lot better with my TSP.
Good luck and thank you for all your good posts.
TSPGO!
FundSurfer wrote:
The reason for the multiple transactions is becausethe market is trending or going nowhere. When the market is behaving this wayI stick to the 5-10 Rule as my insurance policy. Once the market defines its trend then the number of transactions drops significantly. I get thebest results from combining the High Risk and the 5-10 Rule strategies (see http://www.tspgo.com for an explanation).Ifthe market is uptrending then I pay attention to the High Risk strategyto take profits along the way. That's why I keep drawing trend lines, channels and triangles, etc.in my charts.
I am looking for a way to uplooad the data in my website and make itinteractive so visitors can benefit from it. Iwant to do itto the extent that I don't have to upload my graphs every day. I saw something similar to what I am looking for at http://www.tspmoney.com but my expertise is very limited in the area of web publishing and I don't know how it is done.
I tried using the TSPtalk spreadsheet but I got discouraged because after I spent a lot time (literally hours) inputting all my transactions from last year, Pyriel made me aware that I was not inputing the data correctly. I gave up and decided to wait for you or Pyriel to post my numbers. Then I will ask for a copy of your (my) spreasheet to see how the entries should be made. I would like to post the TSPtalk spreadsheet in my website but for the sake of those who visit http://www.tspgo.com I need to make sure that theinformation is accurate.
Do you have a spreadsheet where you can track several participants at the same time? If you do, would you e-mail it to me?. I am trying to find a way to track the performance of each of my strategies in one place.
I have been actively trading my TSP since June 2003. I do lots of day trading, swing trading and options onthe side. Proportionally speaking, I have done a heck of lot better with my TSP.
Good luck and thank you for all your good posts.
TSPGO!
tspgo_com
Active member
imported post
Change of mind
All short term indicators are now in buy territory for C and S. The S&P came down to the 1200 and is holding. The Stochastic is currently oversold. The race toward the 1250+ area is still on. The door to buy low and sell high is wide open. The only thing that may keep the market in check for the remaining of the week is the triple witching Friday that lies ahead.
Moderate Risk (5-10 Rule) : Change Buy Signal:
Submitted on 05-15-05 at 7:30 am
Effective 05-15-05
G = 30,
F=0
C= 35
S= 35
I = 0
TSPGO!
Change of mind
All short term indicators are now in buy territory for C and S. The S&P came down to the 1200 and is holding. The Stochastic is currently oversold. The race toward the 1250+ area is still on. The door to buy low and sell high is wide open. The only thing that may keep the market in check for the remaining of the week is the triple witching Friday that lies ahead.
Moderate Risk (5-10 Rule) : Change Buy Signal:
Submitted on 05-15-05 at 7:30 am
Effective 05-15-05
G = 30,
F=0
C= 35
S= 35
I = 0
TSPGO!
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