Stocks opened higher on Thursday, drifted lower into early afternoon, then rallied back to close near the highs of the day, and the four major indices all made new all time highs again. The Dow gained 149-points while the Nasdaq and the small caps led on the upside again. All of this came after a weaker than expected jobless claims report so investors are still counting stimulus to save the day.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The Jobless claims came in worse than expected again with 885,000 new jobless claims being made compared to the 795,000 that was estimated. Despite concerns like this, record COVID cases, and the new lockdowns taking place around the country, the market is at all time highs just as we enter the strongest two-week stretch of the year historically. It sounds quite dangerous, but there are reasons why these next two weeks tend to do well, and it has to do with light volume trading with many traders taking time off, plus money managers doing some window dressing to their portfolios. So far there has been little tax selling that I can see.
The bubble is all around us and you don't have to look any further than the U.S. stock indices, bitcoin, The Fed's Money Supply, interest rates, or just about anything, to see it. DWCPF below is our S-fund.
No matter how you slice it, the market is behaving well and starting next week we're in the proverbial Santa Claus rally period. Can the extended market continue higher for two more weeks as the December seasonality chart suggests?
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The market never ceases to surprise me so if we do see selling in the next two weeks, it might be par for the course for 2020, which has been a whopper of a year in almost all aspects. I would think the market would more likely pay the price in January, rather than late December, but again, this is 2020 and would anything surprise us at this point?
I'm doing some traveling for Christmas today after the IFT deadline, but should be back in the evening to get the AutoTracker updated and check on any emails.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) has bounced back completely from that unimpressive attempt by the bears to pull it back last week. It is at new highs with room above and below, and support and resistance are both rising steadily. Because of the light volume trading that we are likely to see starting on Monday (after today's quadruple witching expiration day) the bulls should have the advantage, that is unless there is some kind of negative news event that can push a light volume trading day around.
I posted the DWCPF Index / S-fund chart above so let's get right to the EFA / I-fund, which made another new high and the dollar made another new low helping the I-fund that much more.
The Dow Transportation Index had a big day, possibly negating the bear flag I mentioned on Thursday, and it may be trying to break to the upside, similar to the November formation. However, FedEx reported earnings after the bell. They were quite strong, but reminiscent of Apple before the election, they did not want to give forward guidance, and the stock was selling off in after hours trading, and that could put some pressure on the Transports on Friday. However, it wouldn't surprise me if money managers buy the dip FedEx quickly to get that one in their year end reports.
The VIX slipped again and looks to have put in another lower high, and as we get into the holidays, this could continue to drift lower, assuming there are no black swan events over the next two weeks.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) ended the day on the flat side despite a rather wide trading day. There were no real changes to the technical picture as the 20-day EMA is still holing after the recent breakout above that bull flag.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The Jobless claims came in worse than expected again with 885,000 new jobless claims being made compared to the 795,000 that was estimated. Despite concerns like this, record COVID cases, and the new lockdowns taking place around the country, the market is at all time highs just as we enter the strongest two-week stretch of the year historically. It sounds quite dangerous, but there are reasons why these next two weeks tend to do well, and it has to do with light volume trading with many traders taking time off, plus money managers doing some window dressing to their portfolios. So far there has been little tax selling that I can see.
The bubble is all around us and you don't have to look any further than the U.S. stock indices, bitcoin, The Fed's Money Supply, interest rates, or just about anything, to see it. DWCPF below is our S-fund.
No matter how you slice it, the market is behaving well and starting next week we're in the proverbial Santa Claus rally period. Can the extended market continue higher for two more weeks as the December seasonality chart suggests?
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The market never ceases to surprise me so if we do see selling in the next two weeks, it might be par for the course for 2020, which has been a whopper of a year in almost all aspects. I would think the market would more likely pay the price in January, rather than late December, but again, this is 2020 and would anything surprise us at this point?
I'm doing some traveling for Christmas today after the IFT deadline, but should be back in the evening to get the AutoTracker updated and check on any emails.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) has bounced back completely from that unimpressive attempt by the bears to pull it back last week. It is at new highs with room above and below, and support and resistance are both rising steadily. Because of the light volume trading that we are likely to see starting on Monday (after today's quadruple witching expiration day) the bulls should have the advantage, that is unless there is some kind of negative news event that can push a light volume trading day around.
I posted the DWCPF Index / S-fund chart above so let's get right to the EFA / I-fund, which made another new high and the dollar made another new low helping the I-fund that much more.
The Dow Transportation Index had a big day, possibly negating the bear flag I mentioned on Thursday, and it may be trying to break to the upside, similar to the November formation. However, FedEx reported earnings after the bell. They were quite strong, but reminiscent of Apple before the election, they did not want to give forward guidance, and the stock was selling off in after hours trading, and that could put some pressure on the Transports on Friday. However, it wouldn't surprise me if money managers buy the dip FedEx quickly to get that one in their year end reports.
The VIX slipped again and looks to have put in another lower high, and as we get into the holidays, this could continue to drift lower, assuming there are no black swan events over the next two weeks.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) ended the day on the flat side despite a rather wide trading day. There were no real changes to the technical picture as the 20-day EMA is still holing after the recent breakout above that bull flag.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Thanks for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
