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Transfer 5/25 for 5/26/04
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
imported post
The dollar really took a beating today confirming the break of that trend line (see chart in postseveral posts above) as it fell to 88.70. Now my strategy changes. I will look for a rebound in the dollar to get into the I fund. That may take a few days.I don't want to jump right in as we could very well get a pullback in the EAFE and a rebound in the dollar after today's big day.
The dollar really took a beating today confirming the break of that trend line (see chart in postseveral posts above) as it fell to 88.70. Now my strategy changes. I will look for a rebound in the dollar to get into the I fund. That may take a few days.I don't want to jump right in as we could very well get a pullback in the EAFE and a rebound in the dollar after today's big day.
imported post
Back to the I fund, I emailed someone at thestreet.com who knows a lot more about economics and the dollar than I do. I asked why he thinks the dollar is continuing to fall. Here is his reponse:
"I believe the dollar is falling b/c recent economic data haven't been so great, meaning the Fed *might* not be so aggressive in tightening, meaning the yield differential b/t the fed funds rate and other CB rates will remain wide...and there's also the structural trade/budget deficits weighing on the buck on a more LT basis. Hope that helps, AT "
Back to the I fund, I emailed someone at thestreet.com who knows a lot more about economics and the dollar than I do. I asked why he thinks the dollar is continuing to fall. Here is his reponse:
"I believe the dollar is falling b/c recent economic data haven't been so great, meaning the Fed *might* not be so aggressive in tightening, meaning the yield differential b/t the fed funds rate and other CB rates will remain wide...and there's also the structural trade/budget deficits weighing on the buck on a more LT basis. Hope that helps, AT "
puertorico
Member
imported post
Thank Tom ,just lucky again !
But its tru what u doing.Now we are half-way up
Time to take that 10% out of I-fund to G.
From now on that I recuperate the big loses
time for take every day 10% and put it to G.
STRATEGY
1-Buy bottom add to stock little by little
2-In the way up 100 stock
3-after half way up start adding some to G [10%]
4- first out money is {I},then {S} just
hanging with C in the Top.
5-and if lucky in the way down stay put in G.
Tom..just trying to have a game plan
and always watching your input and everybodies
comments.For any idea or warning....
#-1 fan tspTALK
Thank Tom ,just lucky again !
But its tru what u doing.Now we are half-way up
Time to take that 10% out of I-fund to G.
From now on that I recuperate the big loses
time for take every day 10% and put it to G.
STRATEGY
1-Buy bottom add to stock little by little
2-In the way up 100 stock
3-after half way up start adding some to G [10%]
4- first out money is {I},then {S} just
hanging with C in the Top.
5-and if lucky in the way down stay put in G.
Tom..just trying to have a game plan
and always watching your input and everybodies
comments.For any idea or warning....
#-1 fan tspTALK
). I have said this before but your instincts are uncanny. Your transfers continueto be timedvery well. Nice job!
puertorico
Member
imported post
I just have 10-I in case that happen soon !
10-i
60-s
30-c
Just hope stay in the green zone
and I'll be alright
I just have 10-I in case that happen soon !
10-i
60-s
30-c
Just hope
and I'll be alright
imported post
Just as a side note. I expected the dollar to start to move up here and that it why I was pulling out of the I fund. Not because I thought the international markets were going to go down. My thinking was that if the U.S. and internationl markets both went up, the I fund shares could be held back by a rising dollar giving reason to stick with the U.S. funds. So far the dollar has not rebounded asI expected.
Unfortunately for those of you who were in the I fund , and some of you quite heavily, and pulledout becauseof my analysis, you may miss a nice day as the EAFE indexis up nicely today. For some reason the dollar is falling again, even though we had some good economic numbers come out this morning. Maybe I'm missing something or else this is the last blowout sell off for the dollar today.
It never fails. Whenever I have a good day and my analysis seems to be on the money, the market quickly comes back to humble me. Today is that day for me.
Just as a side note. I expected the dollar to start to move up here and that it why I was pulling out of the I fund. Not because I thought the international markets were going to go down. My thinking was that if the U.S. and internationl markets both went up, the I fund shares could be held back by a rising dollar giving reason to stick with the U.S. funds. So far the dollar has not rebounded asI expected.
Unfortunately for those of you who were in the I fund , and some of you quite heavily, and pulledout becauseof my analysis, you may miss a nice day as the EAFE indexis up nicely today. For some reason the dollar is falling again, even though we had some good economic numbers come out this morning. Maybe I'm missing something or else this is the last blowout sell off for the dollar today.
It never fails. Whenever I have a good day and my analysis seems to be on the money, the market quickly comes back to humble me. Today is that day for me.
imported post
I wrote that the other day but it is not what we have seen. The dollar is not bouncing back like I thought it would. Instead it seems to have broken that uptrend channel. It would surprise me asthis is an indication of a weaker U.S. economy.
At this point it is probably getting oversold and may get a short term rally but the intermediate trend may be changing to the downside. This would HELP the I fund. If it breaks below 89.00 it is almost certain. But as I said, it may still need to rebound in the short term. Itappears to bedown again today. This is as of the close of 5/26...
Chart provided courtesy of http://www.decisionpoint.com
I wrote that the other day but it is not what we have seen. The dollar is not bouncing back like I thought it would. Instead it seems to have broken that uptrend channel. It would surprise me asthis is an indication of a weaker U.S. economy.
At this point it is probably getting oversold and may get a short term rally but the intermediate trend may be changing to the downside. This would HELP the I fund. If it breaks below 89.00 it is almost certain. But as I said, it may still need to rebound in the short term. Itappears to bedown again today. This is as of the close of 5/26...
Chart provided courtesy of http://www.decisionpoint.com
imported post
If ebay goes down (stays under 90)he gets to keep the $5.40 he sold the calls for (5.40 each share in the options contract, usually 100), but he owns ebay at a lower price.
Since he sold the calls,if ebay goes up, he loses money on the call to whoever bought it, but he makes money on the ebay stock he owns.
He says he keeps the 5.40 if it goes over 90 butI don't get that part. I thought he would haveto pay the buyer of the call whatever the price is over 90. Say it closed at 98, I thought he'd have to pay the buyer $8.00.
These are way confusing. Covered calls are a way tolimit risk in stocks. That person owns the stock but sold calls (a call is an option betting ebay will go up).
If ebay goes down (stays under 90)he gets to keep the $5.40 he sold the calls for (5.40 each share in the options contract, usually 100), but he owns ebay at a lower price.
Since he sold the calls,if ebay goes up, he loses money on the call to whoever bought it, but he makes money on the ebay stock he owns.
He says he keeps the 5.40 if it goes over 90 butI don't get that part. I thought he would haveto pay the buyer of the call whatever the price is over 90. Say it closed at 98, I thought he'd have to pay the buyer $8.00.
imported post
Tom,
I see your on...good ...I saw your initial comments.....understand but still believe is BS...anyway ...life goes on...Been busy fixin a vehicle and dealing with a friend who's not doing too good with cancer...got a month left. will continue with the updates ...just may not be too timely...got a question not sure if you can explain the following statement:
I sell only covered calls. Today I sold Aug $90 for $5.40, if ebay doesn't reach $90, I keep the stock and the $5.40. If it goes over $90, I have a $14 gain and the $5.40 - not bad.
Tom,
I see your on...good ...I saw your initial comments.....understand but still believe is BS...anyway ...life goes on...Been busy fixin a vehicle and dealing with a friend who's not doing too good with cancer...got a month left. will continue with the updates ...just may not be too timely...got a question not sure if you can explain the following statement:
I sell only covered calls. Today I sold Aug $90 for $5.40, if ebay doesn't reach $90, I keep the stock and the $5.40. If it goes over $90, I have a $14 gain and the $5.40 - not bad.
imported post
Tom,
http://www.msci.com showed a 12.374 cent gained for the "I" today (.95% gain) pretty jacked up to show a two cents loss... EFA ticker symbol that should follow the fund did infact show a .18% loss.......Sounds to me like there are still crooks on Wall Street.
Tom,
http://www.msci.com showed a 12.374 cent gained for the "I" today (.95% gain) pretty jacked up to show a two cents loss... EFA ticker symbol that should follow the fund did infact show a .18% loss.......Sounds to me like there are still crooks on Wall Street.
imported post
If you did it before noon eastern time Wednesday, it will be effective Thursday. I believe they say something like "It can take up to 2 business days" but you should be good in the morning since you met the deadline.
Now we just need the market to cooperate. :shock:
If you did it before noon eastern time Wednesday, it will be effective Thursday. I believe they say something like "It can take up to 2 business days" but you should be good in the morning since you met the deadline.
Now we just need the market to cooperate. :shock:
imported post
tsptalk wrote:
Since these EAFE index managershave to do a little "guessing" (click here for more info on that) when it comes to their quote because of the overnight trading, they may have overestimated yesterday'sAsian and Australian gains for last night. Today they may have had to readjust a bit.
Just a guess.
Tom
tsptalk wrote:
The I fund was down .02 today but I don't know exactly why. Not that I'm complaining since I was out of the fund, but the EAFE appeared to be up and the dollar was down slightly against the pound and euro. The only thing I can think of is this...
Since these EAFE index managershave to do a little "guessing" (click here for more info on that) when it comes to their quote because of the overnight trading, they may have overestimated yesterday'sAsian and Australian gains for last night. Today they may have had to readjust a bit.
Just a guess.
Tom
imported post
Yes, to clarify: after the end-of-the-month swell (last few days in may + first few days in June)--much like the Dec/Jan swell, only not as huge.
--> http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/view_topic.php?id=228&forum_id=10&jump_to=1824
Yes, to clarify: after the end-of-the-month swell (last few days in may + first few days in June)--much like the Dec/Jan swell, only not as huge.
--> http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/view_topic.php?id=228&forum_id=10&jump_to=1824
