Tom, i'm not getting it.....

[tblunk]

Taylor Dent thinks that the market is going to do just that, go through the roof until some crash no earlier than 2008. Are you so sure he's wrong and you're right? Or is it more likely that neither one of you really knows what the heck is going to happen.

I think Tom has clearly stated that he thinks the long term trend is up. Just like your friend Taylor. And that he plans to get back in when there's a pullback. Unless of course the market goes straight up without a breather.

In short, i just dont get it. I can deal with you choosing to lose money for yourself, but please rethink doing it on behalf of the other people here too, because many of them are probably following your guidance, and unware that most experts recommend holding a diversified portfolio with rebalancing despite current market conditions.

Most experts thought the world was flat. Most experts thought the human body couldn't withstand the forces of traveling at 60 mph. Etc., etc., etc. Most experts aren't in my shoes. Or your shoes. I don't want my money in a stock fund "despite current market conditions" when I'm this close to retiring.

IMO, the smart investors invest not to lose, per William J. Bernstein, and instead focus most of their energy on keeping more of what they earn. Studies have shown that the primary determing factor to accumulating wealth is focusing on accumulation and savings, not obsessing over that extra 1-2% return, and actually losing 1-2% in that endeavor.

That, my friend, is the very definition of a G-Fund investor.

I applaud your initial advise to get the masses out of the G-Fund long term. But I personally feel you're offsetting the good done by that, by advocating market timing.

And now I'm confused. First you say diversified, then you appear to say G-Fund, then you say no G-Fund. I think you're advocating a buy and hold approach, which is all well and good until that pesky crash you mentioned earlier. How will you know when to get out? Market Timing? (albeit long- term market timing) Can't be that, you're against it.

I'm pretty happy buying into the C when it seems low, selling when it seems high, and sitting safely on the sidelines until it looks low again. Might not be perfect, but I can live with it.

t

 

[pyriel]

I didn't know that Tom is now our leader. Funny because i've been looking at other members' posts and I don't see anyone following his every move. Nor does Tom ever said that his system works, except to say that he is following his indicators and abiding by them.

As far as this site doing a good job or a bad job informing people the benefits of managing (whether you call it market timing or buy and holder) your TSP funds, it is an opinion that should be respected by others. Now, that we've expressed that, we'll let our readers decide which one they would like to venture into.

Majority of the people that ventured into this site used to be a buy and holder. This is not my opinion but its a fact. Having been been informed of what they can do to take advantage of the pool of knowledge here, many of them are trying the market timing approach (this is my opinion). The bottom line here is that everyone that post their allocations here do so on their own accord. And if they see that market timing is not working for them, then they can go back as a buy and holder investor.

As for me, after being here for two years now, I have tried the market timing approach. Now, I plan on trying a different approach by doing a buy and hold in stox from Nov-Apr and doing a pullback reassessment from May-Oct. Again, this is my approach and i'm not saying that it will work. However, if I didn't come to this site two years ago, I would have never been able to learn this approach and would have continue to sit as a buy and holder.

Would it work, I don't know? We'll see...

Peace People
Pyriel

 

[FundSurfer]

Hmmmm.....

Tom does have a bunch of people following his moves...given...

ergo... he is leading....

However, he has posted his track record, he does not charge for his services, and everyone who is following him is old enough to be and adult and make there own decisions. They have also gotten exactly what they paid for. (Note to Tom: I wouldn't want to be in your shoes as far as having to get the e-mails and the feeling of responsibility - even though you should feel none given the reasons I just stated. If I were you, I'd keep posting your opinions but leave the allocations to the shark. Not that you are doing badly, just I would not want the aggrivation.)

That being said, many have already said they appreciate this site. Critisism of Tom's methodology is not critisism of this website.

 

[James48843]

Question for the experts:

When exactly did "Daily Valuations" start?

I ask because I USED to be a strickly "buy and hold" investor, balancing now and then, but not agressively watching, because I could only change once a month.

Then, when daily valuations came around, I had the power to move more quickly. And in mid-2005, I started watching TSPTALK and learning more.
And in late 2005, I started actually making moves on my own on a regular basis. It has worked just fine for me.

Here is the proof that learning more can help you make good decisions:

Here is my TSP account history, valued on December 31st each year, from when I started working for the government in 1992, until now. Actually I couldn't start making contributions until the first open season six months after my employment began, so 1993 is only a partial year. But you get the idea:



Dec. 31 TSP Account Value

1993 $2087
1994 8050
1995 18645.68
1996 31088.35
1997 26877.00 (took out 20K home loan)
1998 52580
1999 74,956.69
2000 80,543.64
2001 86,191
2002 86,241
2003 131,984.02
2004 173,120
2005 202563
and
as of October 12, 2006, $263,568.77

From 1993 until 2002, I was a "buy and hold, and rebalance" perhaps three times a year.
Around 2003 I think is when "Daily valuations" came into effect. Not sure exactly.

So you can see the power of being able to move it around- not on a daily basis, but when it makes sense. I've gone from 86K to 263K in a little over three years.

Much of that is due to things I've learned on TSPTALK.COM. Not just Tom's ideas on what works, but a LOT of other people's ideas too. Things I hadn't thought about before. And things to watch for.

I am grateful to EVERYONE on TSPTALK, because I've learned to make better decisions. I've heard a WIDE variety of theories, and some that work. And some that don't.

We ALL do better when we invest with knowledge. Knowledge is power.

 

[coolhand]

Azanon,

When you step out into the world of Wall Street finance whether you buy mutual funds or stocks there is one inherent premise: they take no prisoners. You are in competition with multi-millions of other folks and no one cares if you fly or flame. So thanks for your comments - but actually no one cares. Join the fun and place your nickle. Chit, maybe you'll become a leader. Tom is just exercising his entrepreneurial spirit and is part of what makes this country what it is today. Would you be interested in any eggs?

Birch is right.

For those who've embraced the buy and hold (diversify) approach, understanding market timing may be a hopeless endeavor. It is more than just trying to beat the street. It's about taking charge of one's own portofolio and not letting the street dictate what they will have when they retire. It's not easy, but with patience and a true committment to learning the ropes it can be done.

There is no one approach to market timing. I do not follow Tom's moves (or RevShark's for that matter even though I pay for his newsletter). I don't care what their allocation is. What I'm interested in is their insight to the market, which is based on a whole lot more experience than I have. I also spend time on other research and trader websites gaining other perspectives. I enjoy it very much. There is a steep learning curve for a given period of time, but it begins to level off once you start to understand the basics. So in this regard as one's level of knowledge increases so should the time spent studying.

It's been said before, but keep in mind that regardless if one is a buy and holder or a market timer risk is still inherent in the market. Many folks cannot and probably should not try to time the market. Most folks I work with are completely ignorant of investing basics and they are okay with that. They are not interested in managing their money. That's okay, it's their choice.

As for me, give me the rudder, I'll steer my own ship thank you very much.

 

[tsptalk]

Tom, you are clearly a smart guy as evidenced simply by your writing ability...

See, there's where you are wrong.

You're just trying to get to the 250 post level to get a planner. OK azanon, please PM me your address.

My weak attempt at humor aside, at the moment I have neither the strength nor desire to defend my approach anymore - but did you get it when I was on the sidelines and the funds dropped 8% to 17% in June? Did you get it when I jumped 100% into stocks at the bottom this summer? I guess even a broken clock is right twice a day. That's what I try to do but I'm not always successful.

If you want to beat the market consistently, sign up for RevShark's newsletter. He's the real deal. That will likely be my new strategy in 2007.

 

[mayday]

Azanon Givens stratagy but alas he's dead. I do'nt know Givens. He did not teach me sqat. I had a freind who died Wednesday. He was'nt a market timer just someone who loved to laugh. He said what I have now for my signiture whenever I needed his oppinon.

 

[sugarandspice]

Azanon,

I wonder what you would say if everyone here made the exact moves as Fundsurfer and was kicking a$$ for the year like he is.

You are an opportunist taking advantage of a situation to try to point out your superiority.

And why do you think he is not accountable? He posts all his moves and provides daily comments. Pretty see through to me.


People can learn alot here and I'm sure Tom is not the only one who has followers. There are people who visit and don't register and follow others moves all the time. I know 4 personally.

People always grumble when they are not in when the gettin's good.

You obviously lost out big time somewhere.
And I'm sure you will tell us all about what you have done in the past (no proof) to prove me wrong. I/we will be waiting.

 

[mlk_man]

Hey Azz, looks like practically the whole board doesn't agree with you. That sucks doesn't it?

 

[Griffin]

Azanon,

I wonder what you would say if everyone here made the exact moves as Fundsurfer and was kicking a$$ for the year like he is.

Sorry to interrupt the bashing, but Sugar, If I'm not mistaken, there's a new King in town - Pointman72 - 19.87% (Fundsurfer - 18.42%, Griffin - 18.32%, Show-me - 18.24%, Sugerandspice 16.40%, Wizard of Oz - 15.73%....Sorry Ocean I got cornfused by your move on Monday). That's as far as I went.

Congrats Pointman 72 - In a buy and hold mode in the S fund since June

Azanon, don't take that last comment as supporting your viewpoint.....Pointman missed most of May/Junes plummet by successfully timing.

 

[robo]

Azanon,

Your opinion is noted about Market Timing, but I disagree with you about your comments about this site. To say this site does an awful job is very unfair. Plenty of stuff on this site other then Market Timing. Please read the following articles below and rules from a Market Timing Pro. Feel free to comment on why he is wrong. Please read all articles and links before you base your opinion. If after reading all points your opinion is unchanged, then buy and hold my friend. Even Bob Brinker is a Market Timer. He just doesn't make many moves.

Beliefs of Successful Market Timers
Successful market timers, meaning profitable market timers, have several "common" beliefs that help them achieve consistent profits.

On the flip side of this, those who are unsuccessful also have a set of common beliefs.

http://timing.typepad.com/timer/



You pointed out that Tom is an excellent writer. I'm not! I suck, bad grammer and spelling, but I know how to save and make money and my account balances prove that. Maybe some of the readers here have already learned that they should not try and Market Time and are now in the L Fund. Maybe they get advice from Pro's like I do, or they use this site for other reasons.

I also recommend the L Funds for some folks. I'm a conservative investor, some are aggressive. I talk with people at work that will never leave the G Fund and others that are always in the I Fund. The choice is for them to make. Please read some comments from 2005 below. I recommend L Funds at work to some folks for TSP Funds who never make moves. Tom points this out ALL THE TIME.


http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=1895&page=3

The point is it's your money and how much risk you are willing to take.

This debate is a old one and I'm not debating Market Timing with you. Please email Fibtimer or the Shark if you want that debate. I get both services and I'm very pleased with the results. Your comments here is like going on Conservative radio and your a liberal.

Democratic/Republican Christian/Muslim Carrot/Stick War/Peace Market Timing/Buy and Hold

Bottom line all are opinions who has it right, all are right! Again, my comments are directed about the site not market timing. This site can help you become a better investor or Market Timer depending on your risk level.


Sorry for any grammer errors. I never had much time for school, all I every wanted to do was make money. If you want to snort about like Birchtree does
and talk up buy and hold go for it.


I'm a Market timer! I'm in the G Fund 80% of the time and my goal is a 7% return yearly. Could I make more money if I took more risk? Maybe, I'm not greedy. Be afraid when others are greedy and be greedy when others are afraid. Thats how to Market Time.

Stock investors have Goldilocks dancing in the streets. CNBC is shouting, buy, buy, buy and I'm in the G fund. Oh boy, I'm missing all these gains! NOT, I collect my penny when it's paid. We are all not big time market timers here and Tom has done a excellent job to point out both side of investing. If you do want to take some calulated risks like our Market Timers do you can BEAT THE MARKETS. YTD RETURNS IS THE PROOF!!!

Take Care! Good Investing/Trading/Market Timing

The trend is your friend until it is not!

Griffin wrote:

Sorry to interrupt the bashing, but Sugar, If I'm not mistaken, there's a new King in town - Pointman72 - 19.87% (Fundsurfer - 18.42%, Griffin - 18.32%, Show-me - 18.24%, Sugerandspice 16.40%, Wizard of Oz - 15.73%....Sorry Ocean I got cornfused by your move on Monday). That's as far as I went.

Congrats Pointman 72 - In a buy and hold mode in the S fund since June

Azanon, don't take that last comment as supporting your viewpoint.....Pointman missed most of May/Junes plummet by successfully timing.
Today 09:21 AM

Griffin,

HOOAH!!!! I will not comment on this subject again on this thread.

Tom,

Thanks for your Leadership! You have never advised me to Market Time and I do thank you for my SharkFolio, your daily comments, and thoughts on the Stock Market!

robo


Please read over the chart for the Buy and Hold returns in this article.

Good Morning,

The latest issue of the Investment Commentary has been uploaded. It is as usual a pdf file and its size is 4 MB.

Please download the pdf file by clicking on the following link: http://www.hable.ca/downloads/Commentary.pdf

 

[Show-me]

Pointman,

Silent but deadly. WHOOHOO! You're in the groove now, the pressure is on! LOL Congratulations!

Sorry to interrupt the bashing, but Sugar, If I'm not mistaken, there's a new King in town - Pointman72 - 19.87% (Fundsurfer - 18.42%, Griffin - 18.32%, Show-me - 18.24%, Sugerandspice 16.40%, Wizard of Oz - 15.73%....Sorry Ocean I got cornfused by your move on Monday). That's as far as I went.

Congrats Pointman 72 - In a buy and hold mode in the S fund since June

Azanon, don't take that last comment as supporting your viewpoint.....Pointman missed most of May/Junes plummet by successfully timing.

 

[robo]

Tell Us Another Story

At FibTimer, we believe that some of the worst advice, which is given to the vast majority of investors, is to select an index fund, set up an automatic deposit program to make monthly deposits into it, and then do nothing until you retire. At that time, so the logic goes, you will be rich from the huge profits derived from your investments.

Buy-and-hold say the experts. Buy-and-hold say the advisors who profit from your investment purchases though commissions. Buy-and-hold say most mutual fund companies who profit from load fees so numerous in variety it would take too much space to list them all here. Buy-and-hold say TV commentators and newsletter publishers who's clients already own the stock.

Imagine for a moment an investor, following such a buy-and-hold strategy, who planned to retire in 2002.

Depending on the index fund, the value of his or her retirement funds would be worth 50% to 80% less after the 2000-2002 bear market. They are probably still working, postponing retirement and hoping the markets will get back to their pre-bear market highs. For their sakes, we hope another bear market does not devastate them again.

And, two years after that bear market, most index funds are still far below where they were.

"...the markets will always go up and down, and the majority of stocks in the market will follow the current trend. Change is inevitable! "
But those mutual fund traders who spent a little time watching the markets, who used even a simple 200 day moving average to determine that their fund investments were no longer performing well and exited to cash, avoided most of the losses and made money in money market funds.

Market timing doesn't work? Sure, tell us another story.

http://www.fibtimer.com/subscribers_historical_reports/051113_fibtimer_commentary.asp


Sorry, one last post just in case folks don't go to FibTimer and read his most excellent articles. Bob Brinker also gave a sell signal in 2000. I took his advice! The advice above sounds like Tom's mission statement.

 

[sugarandspice]

Sorry to interrupt the bashing, but Sugar, If I'm not mistaken, there's a new King in town - Pointman72 - 19.87% (Fundsurfer - 18.42%, Griffin - 18.32%, Show-me - 18.24%, Sugerandspice 16.40%, Wizard of Oz - 15.73%....Sorry Ocean I got cornfused by your move on Monday). That's as far as I went........

Anyway you slice it the a$$ is still getting kicked by Fundsurfer. 18.42% ROCKS and qualifies as derriere indentations.

 

[SkyPilot]

Azanon,

Tom has never recommended that people follow his advice (that I can remember), only that they consider a variety of opinions and educate themselves. That's what this site is all about, education and community. So, your assertion that Tom is a leader and "must be held accountable" is specious at best.

Tom is an individual who has provided much wisdom and insight, and has founded a website that is a benefit to all who care to read. Somewhat more than the TSP official website, IMHO. In that Tom's returns may not reflect the highest earnings at a particular time should be no concern of yours. All who follow the comments and insight of this site do so at their own risk (and reward).

Education and communication are never the danger.

 

[Oldcoin]

We have no leader, we have a moderator……..NNut, this is total anarchy.

 

[Oldcoin]

Oh yeah, didn’t we have this conversation in another thread with Desperado?

 

[rokid]

“Markowitz came to realize the cruel truth of investing: investors cannot earn higher returns without taking on greater risk, and the greater the risk the greater the possibility of losing.”

Show-me - Great quote. No free lunch!

 

[Bullzens]

I hope anyone who has 5+ service years left invests in the C, I S, or L funds. If you lock your money in a G fund your being too laxed and will lose out! Please look at the last 25 years of the returns. It's a no brainer! Ask any analyst.. It is smart to move it in a fixed just before retirement. Hope this helps.

 

[Show-me]

Nobel laureate 1990.

“Markowitz came to realize the cruel truth of investing: investors cannot earn higher returns without taking on greater risk, and the greater the risk the greater the possibility of losing.”

Show-me - Great quote. No free lunch!