Risk vs. Reward
Wow, what a day! Some folks were on the other side of the rally. IMO, this is not a completely bad thing the risk was very high and if you are in the last few years of retirement your biggest concern should be capital preservation.
The media hype had a number of different scenarios that could have happened. Any one of them, with the exception of the one that happened, could have turn the market the other direction. A .25%, a cut of just the discount rate, no cut at all, etc. All of these would have had a different reaction.
So all that being said sitting on the side was in fact a good move if you did not have a high tolerance for risk. What if the Fed kept rate steady? Would we have fell 3%? I personally felt that the Fed would indeed cut the rate, but did not know how much. That is why I only committed 50% in the market and still took home 1.5% gain.
So if you missed this big pop, so be it. Learn from it and learn how to hedge your bets. To me I would rather miss a gain that take a loss of my principle. Course, this year I'm at the bottom of the tally. Can't win'em all.
Triple Witching on Friday. STA sez week after Triple Witching Dow down 13 of last 16. Historically September has closed poorly. End of 3rd Q brings institutional portfolio window dressing and heavy selling.
IMO, I just can't see the market zooming to new highs. This was straight adrenalin rush and if I had not over slept yesterday I would have went to the G fund. I will today.
IMO, I see the dollar recovering, oil dropping, and the markets digesting gains. Everything reacted to the extreme and needs to retract a bit. The "news" rocketed the market forward yesterday, but the reality is that we are not out of the woods yet.
Just one mans opinion and good luck everyone.
