This Week in Stocks: 9/15 - 9/21/07

[fabijo]

Re: Risk vs. Reward

IMO, I see the dollar recovering, ...

When the dollar is in true recovery mode, it might be time for India's IT services to come back into style for investors. Their profits have been impacted by our loss in the dollar. When the dollar is gaining against the Indian Rupee, they make more money for all that Telephone/IT support they give us.

 

[Show-me]

By the way, i'm not an economist, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night

:nuts: heehee:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

fabijo,

I was born 7/27/47 over a bowling alley -started out right. I would have preferred a goal of +402, but that's overly optimistic. However, I have caught a couple of those dramatic moves in the past - both up and down. What about a gain of +296 for today?

 

[Show-me]

Tactical mistake?

[FONT=arial, helvetica]Kass: Bernanke Made a Big Mistake[/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica]By Doug Kass[/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica]RealMoney Silver Contributor[/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica]9/19/2007 11:45 AM EDT[/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica]URL: http://www.thestreet.com/markets/activetraderupdate/10380295.html[/FONT]

[FONT=arial, helvetica]I clearly underestimated what the market's response would be to loosening credit. I was shocked and so were many market participants. The market bears were wrong. [/FONT]

[FONT=arial, helvetica]It is clear that the data-dependent Fed recognizes -- as some of us have written -- that the economy's foundation, particularly the consumer, was cracking. The Fed's constituents (i.e., the banks) clearly warned Bernanke of mounting problems. (The economic bulls like Ben Stein were wrong, too.) [/FONT]

[FONT=arial, helvetica]For now, the market appears convinced of the "Bernanke Put," though a small minority believes that yesterday's move was "one and done." [/FONT]

[FONT=arial, helvetica]I am not, however, in awe of the Federal Reserve. [/FONT]

[FONT=arial, helvetica]From my perch, the Federal Reserve might have made a tactical mistake by freeing its monetary reins. The U.S.'s economic problem lies firmly in the consumer/housing market, and the larger-than-expected rate cut will likely promote more inflation, a downward spiral in the U.S. dollar and, most importantly, will likely raise intermediate and long-dated bond yields. [/FONT]

[FONT=arial, helvetica]The latter point is the most important, as this will serve to further cripple the housing market by raising mortgage rates -- especially for those who are facing an imminent reset. [/FONT]


[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]Doug Kass is founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., and the general partner and investment manager of Seabreeze Partners Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Short Offshore Fund, Ltd.[/FONT]

 

[Birchtree]

Only 206 more points to go for my daily goal of +296 - I'd like to be right at least once. Let's bring on the short squeez and smoke the bears.

 

[Birchtree]

Alright - what can we do with 45 minutes of momentum.

 

[Fivetears]

Re: Tactical mistake?

So... is this article implying the .5 point cut will not stop the questionable recession facing our economy, Show?

[FONT=arial, helvetica]Kass: Bernanke Made a Big Mistake[/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica]By Doug Kass[/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica]RealMoney Silver Contributor[/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica]9/19/2007 11:45 AM EDT[/FONT]
[FONT=arial, helvetica]URL: http://www.thestreet.com/markets/activetraderupdate/10380295.html[/FONT]

[FONT=arial, helvetica]I clearly underestimated what the market's response would be to loosening credit. I was shocked and so were many market participants. The market bears were wrong. [/FONT]

[FONT=arial, helvetica]It is clear that the data-dependent Fed recognizes -- as some of us have written -- that the economy's foundation, particularly the consumer, was cracking. The Fed's constituents (i.e., the banks) clearly warned Bernanke of mounting problems. (The economic bulls like Ben Stein were wrong, too.) [/FONT]

[FONT=arial, helvetica]For now, the market appears convinced of the "Bernanke Put," though a small minority believes that yesterday's move was "one and done." [/FONT]

[FONT=arial, helvetica]I am not, however, in awe of the Federal Reserve. [/FONT]

[FONT=arial, helvetica]From my perch, the Federal Reserve might have made a tactical mistake by freeing its monetary reins. The U.S.'s economic problem lies firmly in the consumer/housing market, and the larger-than-expected rate cut will likely promote more inflation, a downward spiral in the U.S. dollar and, most importantly, will likely raise intermediate and long-dated bond yields. [/FONT]

[FONT=arial, helvetica]The latter point is the most important, as this will serve to further cripple the housing market by raising mortgage rates -- especially for those who are facing an imminent reset. [/FONT]


[FONT=arial, helvetica, sans-serif]Doug Kass is founder and president of Seabreeze Partners Management, Inc., and the general partner and investment manager of Seabreeze Partners Short LP and Seabreeze Partners Short Offshore Fund, Ltd.[/FONT]

 

[Show-me]

It is possible. We won't feel the effects of the rate cut for a while, some say 6 months. The housing bubble is the tip of the spear. Remember we are a consumer driven economy and the consumers are getting squeezed. This CPI is just one of many to come. T. Boone, the oil man, has a interview on Yahoo

 

[Show-me]

Damn, hit the wrong key.

Anyway the interview T. Boone sez oil will go to $100 a barrel. Maybe not this year, but it will get there. Prices will keep going up and we have not felt the full effect of the Ethanol BS.

How does the Fed keep inflation in check if they have to keep lowering the Fed rate to keep "the economy going" wink wink.

 

[Show-me]

Glad I'm not Ben!

 

[blueskys4ever]

If I were Ben, the last thing I would want is to have the previous Fed chairman making public comments just before key decisions went public. He must have ripping his beard out every time Greenspan gets on the tube.

 

[Show-me]

If I were Ben, the last thing I would want is to have the previous Fed chairman making public comments just before key decisions went public. He must have ripping his beard out every time Greenspan gets on the tube.

You bet! Nothing like the "Maestro" overshadowing you to sell a book or lecture.

 

[Show-me]

Holiday retail sales growth could disappoint

Retailers could see slowest holiday sales growth since 2002 at 4%, below the ten-year average growth of 4.8%.

September 20 2007: 3:40 AM EDT

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Sales growth during the 2007 holiday season could be the slowest since 2002, according to industry forecasts.
Retail sales are expected to rise 4 percent this year to $474.5 billion, according to National Retail Federation forecasts released Wednesday.

The expected sales increase would fall below the ten-year average of 4.8 percent and represent the slowest holiday sales growth since 2002, when sales rose 1.3 percent, the industry group said.

"Retailers are in for a somewhat challenging holiday season as consumers are faced with numerous economic obstacles," said Rosalind Wells, Chief Economist at the Federation. "With the weak housing market and current credit crunch, consumers will be forced to be more prudent with their holiday spending."

Growth outlook worst in five years

Discounters and some department stores are expected to be the worst hit, as low to middle-income shoppers are more affected by the economy. Luxury retailers, whose customers tend to maintain high levels of spending, should be less impacted.

The National Retail Federation expects to release the first of a series of holiday surveys on October 16, polling shoppers on where they will shop and how much they expect to spend.

 

[Birchtree]

Because I'm an investor I know I'll have some spending power this shopping season - the question becomes how many others are similar to myself. The rest of the world we be arriving to buy all they want - I'd keep an eye on those gate way golden arches. They could end up in the U.K.

 

[Show-me]

FedEx tops earnings estimates

Package delivery company reports increased earnings of 4 percent for the first quarter, reduces forecast for the year.

September 20 2007: 8:26 AM EDT


MEMPHIS, Tenn. (AP) -- Package delivery company FedEx Corp. said Thursday its fiscal 2008 first-quarter earnings rose 4 percent to beat Wall Street's expectations on strong international growth.
The company revised its outlook for the full year and forecast second-quarter profit below analysts' consensus estimate.

The company earned $494 million, or $1.58 per share, compared with $475 million, or $1.53, in the year-ago quarter.
Revenue increased 8 percent to $9.2 billion, compared with $8.55 billion in the prior-year period.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/20/news/companies/bc.apfn.earns.fedexcorp.ap/index.htm

 

[Show-me]

AP
Circuit City Posts Loss in 2nd Quarter
Thursday September 20, 8:41 am ET Circuit City Posts Loss in 2nd Quarter, As Domestic Sales Decrease

RICHMOND, Va. (AP) -- Circuit City Stores Inc., the nation's second biggest consumer electronics store chain, said Thursday it swung to a loss in its second quarter as sales fell.


AP
ConAgra Profit Rises on Higher Sales
Thursday September 20, 8:27 am ET ConAgra Profit Increases, Helped by Higher Sales Across All Segments

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) -- ConAgra Foods Inc., maker of Chef Boyardee products and Orville Redenbacher popcorn, said Thursday its first quarter profit rose 5 percent on higher sales.
Profit for the quarter ended Aug. 26 rose to $175.4 million, or 36 cents per share, from $166.7 million, or 33 cents per share a year ago. Results include 2 cents per share in restructuring charges. Revenue rose 10 percent to $2.96 billion from $2.69 billion last year.


AP
Goldman Sachs 3Q Profit Tops Projections
Thursday September 20, 8:42 am ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer Goldman Sachs Third-Quarter Profit Beats Expectations on Investment Banking, Trading

NEW YORK (AP) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. on Thursday reported third-quarter results well ahead of Wall Street projections, as the world's largest investment bank realized gains from takeover advice and the sale of its holdings in an energy company. Goldman shares rose more than 2 percent in premarket trading on the news, and despite total credit losses of nearly $1.5 billion related to the tightening markets for a broad range of debt.

 

[Show-me]

Bear Sterns is another story that does not seem to be getting any press yet.

 

[Birchtree]

Bombay - BBA, declares chapter 11 and stuff is on sale. They have some beautiful cherry furniture - I think I'll go look again.

 

[Show-me]

Bear Sterns

Bad news, Bear: profit sinks 61%

Fixed-income business at Bear Stearns wacked; net income, revenue results fall short of Wall Street's estimates.

September 20 2007: 9:07 AM EDT

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- Bear Stearns reported a steep drop in third-quarter profit Thursday, as the investment bank felt the pain of the subprime mortgage mess and volatility in financial markets.

New York-based Bear said quarterly net income for the period ended in August sank 61 percent to $171.3 million, or $1.16 a share, from the year-earlier period. Revenue fell to $1.3 billion from $2.13 billion last year.

Shares of Bear (Charts, Fortune 500) fell about 2 percent in premarket trading on the results, which missed Wall Street's estimates. Analysts surveyed by earnings tracker Thomson Financial had expected earnings of $1.78 a share on revenue of $1.64 billion.

Bear's fixed-income business, which accounted for about 44 percent of its total revenue in the year-ago period, took the biggest hit. Revenue in the segment fell 88 percent during the quarter to $118 million.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/09/20/news/companies/bear_stearns_earnings/index.htm

 

[fedgolfer]

since most of the big boys didn't participate (and even on the short side) of the Fed rally, if the bears can't bring the indexes down by the last couple of trading hours today, couldn't we see a massive rally in short covering?