This Week in Stocks: 9/1 - 9/7/07

[Show-me]

The Week Ahead

Last Update: 31-Aug-07 10:59 ET

The market has a holiday on Monday, which is probably a good thing as it can use extra time to decompress after a roller-coaster period of trading.
When it's open for action again on Tuesday, participants' attention will soon turn to the economy with the release of the ISM Index, as well as auto and truck sales for August.

The economic item of the week, however, will be the August employment report on Friday.

There isn't much in the way of meaningful earnings news, but Cisco is holding an analyst meeting on Wednesday and there is a bevy of investment conferences that should provide plenty of headlines that influence the market's direction.

Enjoy your Labor Day weekend!
________________________________________________________________
Monday, September 3:

• Market Closed in observance of Labor Day

Tuesday, September 4:

• Earnings: Guess (GES)
• Economic Data: Construction Spending; ISM Index; Auto and Truck Sales
• Events: None
• Conference Schedule: Citigroup Technology Conference; Lehman Bros. Energy Conference; Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Insurance Conference
• Fed Speakers: None

Wednesday, September 5:

• Earnings: DSW (DSW); Sycamore (SCMR); J. Crew (JCG); ADC Telecom (ADCT)
• Economic Data: Pending Home Sales; Fed's Beige Book
• Events: BOE Policy Meeting; Sun Microsystems Analyst Meeting; Cisco Analyst Meeting
• Conference Schedule: Citigroup Technology Conference; Lehman Bros. Energy Conference; Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Insurance Conference; Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference; Thomas Weisel Healthcare Conference
• Fed Speakers: None

Thursday, September 6:

• Earnings: Campbell Soup (CPB); Jackson Hewitt (JTX); Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV); National Semi (NSM); Quiksilver (ZQK)
• Economic Data: Initial Claims; Q2 Productivity - Rev.; ISM Services
• Events: BOE Policy Decision; ECB Policy Meeting; Juniper Networks (JNPR) Investor Gathering; National City (NCC) Analysts' Conference
• Conference Schedule: Citigroup Technology Conference; Lehman Bros. Energy Conference; Credit Suisse Global Automotive Conference; Goldman Sachs Global Retailing Conference; Thomas Weisel Healthcare Conference
• Fed Speakers: Yellen and Kroszner give opening remarks at conference on Asian banking; Poole on jobs and trade in London; Lockhart on U.S. economic outlook; Fisher at community forum in New Mexico

Friday, September 7:

• Earnings: None
• Economic Data: August Employment Report; Wholesale Inventories
• Events: Motorola Financial Analyst Meeting
• Conference Schedule: Thomas Weisel Healthcare Conference
• Fed Speakers: None

 

[Show-me]

Tracker is on so everyone check it out! The link is at the bottom of the homepage.

 

[GGal]

Who invented the new tracker? Aren't we fortunate to have them?

GGAL

 

[Spaf]

Ocean! Ocean
He put it all together! Little debugging going on. But, Wow, EW can have the weekends off.

Who invented the new tracker? Aren't we fortunate to have them?

GGAL

 

[Show-me]

Who invented the new tracker? Aren't we fortunate to have them?

GGAL

Ocean is by far the finest and best friend of the entire MB. He spent a bunch of his time developing the new tracker for all to use. People he does not know or may never know will be able to track themselves and all of us.

Great job Ocean and thank you, thank you, thank you!!!

Did I mention at no charge? And did I mention all of the time he spent?

Here is my "Hall of Fame" vote up front!

 

[nnuut]

Ocean has done a great job, the kind of a guy that keeps his word, I LIKE THAT!!
EW_ret is another that has helped immensely' he modified our original tracker to make it smaller, when we were on the brink of it being 10MB which is too large to send over email. Plus taking over Rokid's Tally and assisting with the new tracker, another great guy.
There are others, you know who you are, and so do we, my Hat is off to all of you!
View attachment 2049

 

[Show-me]

I hope Rokid will keep posting. He done a bang up job and I sure appreciate him sharing. Thank you!

EW is defiantly on board for the long haul. Steady as a rock and always on the ball. Thank you!

Lot of good people on the MB. Makes it hard to stay away very long.

 

[BeaverState]

I was just looking through my 2004 addition of the Stocktraders Almanac. It says September usually starts out strong and then dives as Mutual Fund managers come back from vacation and sell their losers.

 

[Show-me]

I was just looking through my 2004 addition of the Stocktraders Almanac. It says September usually starts out strong and then dives as Mutual Fund managers come back from vacation and sell their losers.

Yes you are correct.

• Streak of four great Septembers averaging 4.2% gains ended in 1999 with six losers in a row averaging -5.9% losses.
• Day after Labor Day up 9 of last 11.
• Opened strong eight of last eleven years, but tends to close weak due to end-of-quarter mutual fund portfolio restructuring.
• September Triple witching Week is dangerous, week after, pitiful.
• Sell Rosh Hashonah, buy Yom Kippur, sell passover.

 

[Show-me]

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/wrapper/marketmonitor.html

 

[Spaf]

The Lilly Pond Report
Sunday September 02, 2007
by Spaf for the Tadpole Savings Pond​

The Frog Report, Le Charts, Doodles, The Lilly Pad, Tea Leaves, and The Tin Box.

The Frog Report:
Croak.............................................It was in 1975 when Roger Staubach threw a "Hail Mary Pass" to Drew Pearson and the Cowboys won the game! Can Mr. Market, the Prez, and the Fed do the same? September seasonality is against us. We are backed up under the 50 day moving average, and the upper bollinger band has us in a tight grip of resistance, there is hope being above the 13 day moving average. But we are tired and over bought at 86.29, can we get a touchdown or just fumble the snap?

Le Chart
[$SPX]
Large Caps

Charts courtesy of www.StockCharts.com​

Doodles:
$SPX....1473.99 -05.38 for the week.....00000...........00000
Stops.............................................Alert (-1%)....Trail (-2%)

Crude closed at.................................74.04 +2.95 for the week ending, Ouch!
Oil Markers.......................................<70= ok, 70-80= worry, >80= panic (maybe).
NYMEX Link.......................................NYMEX
$WTIC Link.......................................$WTIC

The Lilly Pad
Location..........................................100% G-fund.

Tea Leaves:
Leaves............................................Capital preservation + a cold soda and a hot dog! Go team Go!

Tin Box.
TSP (week ending).............................G=12.09..F=11.49..C=16.51..S=19.89..I=23.90
......(end of 2006)..............................G=11.71..F=11.14..C=15.69..S=18.76..I=22.22

 

[Spaf]

Looks like a lot of folks are taking a bite out of the G and F funds!.....:blink:​

Do we have a raccoon in the garbage can??​

View attachment 2055​

 

[Show-me]

We got Pending Home Sales @ 10:00, Crude Inventories @ 10:30, and Fed's Beige Book @ 14:00.

Charts are shaping up. C fund closed above the 50 dma. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p34251268947

S fund broke the 50 day, but closed just below it. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51972347693

FTSE closed above the 200 dma and will likely attack the 50 day tomorrow. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$FTSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51972347693

Nikk is lagging big time, but trending up. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NIKK&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51972347693

The beautiful part is that the trend is up on all indicators except the NIKK RSI. Japan get your crap together please. Your holding us back.

USD is worrying me. Getting a bullish crossover on the 20 and 50 day and the indicators are weak. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p51972347693

OS should do well tonight. Sleep well, I will.

 

[fedgolfer]

the conspiracy theorist in me says, if I was Goldman Sachs or the like, what better way to guarantee a fed funds rate cut than to show the markets can't sustain a rally just based on the discount rate and liquidity injections. Show weakness so the Fed has no other choice -- recession or rate cut. Tank it this week, and accumulate going into Sept 18th.

 

[Show-me]

The Fed will bail out the subprimers. Fed's Beige Book at 2 p.m ET will be a market mover...............I hope.:worried:

 

[James48843]

Home sales is what is moving the markets now- Worst since Sept 2001, and still headed down:

=================================

Pending Home Sales Sink in July
Wednesday September 5, 11:55 am ET
By Alan Zibel, AP Business Writer

Pending Sales of Existing Homes Fell in July to Lowest Level Since September 2001


WASHINGTON (AP) -- Pending sales of existing homes fell in July to the lowest level in nearly six years as borrowers struggled to finalize home purchases, particularly in expensive areas.


The National Association of Realtors said its seasonally adjusted index of pending home sales for July fell 16.1 percent from a year ago and 12.2 percent from the prior month.

July's reading of 89.9 was the second-lowest ever for the index and its lowest since September 2001, when the economy was jolted by the terrorist attacks.

"Numbers like this should put to rest the belief that we've reached the bottom" in the housing market, said Joel Naroff, chief economist for Commerce Bancorp Inc. "There's still a lot of pain that's ahead of us."

The index is designed to predict sales levels over the following two months. A reading of 100 is equal to the average level of pending sales activity in 2001, when the index began.

Lawrence Yun, the Realtors trade group's senior economist, called the problems "temporary," and related to jumbo home loans above $417,000 that can't be packaged into securities sold to investors by government-sponsored mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Some home purchases aren't closing because mortgage loans have been "falling through at the last moment," Yun said in a statement.

The real estate trade group found the biggest year-over-year pending sales declines in western states, which dropped 21.8 percent. The smallest drop was in the Northeast, which declined 10 percent.

With defaults rising among borrowers with weak credit, lenders have backed off from all but the safest mortgages, and many lenders making jumbo loans have demanded that borrowers pay higher rates.

Democratic lawmakers -- and the Realtors' association -- have called for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to be allowed to purchase loans above the current limit in high-cost areas along the East and West coasts.
So far the Bush administration has rejected calls to raise this limit, as well as limits on the amount of mortgages and mortgage-backed securities that Fannie and Freddie can hold on their books.

Bush on Friday announced his administration's first attempt to help borrowers in danger of foreclosure. He detailed plans to help about 80,000 additional borrowers by using the Federal Housing Administration, an agency that backs loans for low-income borrowers, to insure more loans.

Investors around the world have been spooked by the U.S. mortgage market's problems, amid uncertainty about how much they will grow. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. estimates that 2.5 million mortgages given to borrowers with weak credit will reset at higher rates and sometimes dramatically higher monthly payments by the end of next year.

As of June, 17.5 percent of subprime loans given to borrowers with weak credit nationwide were either 60 or more days delinquent or in foreclosure -- more than double the last year's rate, according to FirstAmerican LoanPerformance, a research firm that tracks loans that aren't backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

Source:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070905/pending_home_sales.html

 

[fedgolfer]

post beige book -- XLF is falling out of its pennant formation. Impressive Ebb!

 

[350zCommTech]

The Fed will bail out the subprimers. Fed's Beige Book at 2 p.m ET will be a market mover...............I hope.:worried:

Fed's Beige book was as disappointing as Bernake's speech last Friday.

 

[Show-me]

Back to the drawing board.

 

[Show-me]

A bunch of Fed speakers today.

I'm still holding thinking that any day we will rally big time. The 18th is a long ways away and a lot can happen.

Oil and USO is on the rise. Glad I did not sell. PANL is my pet stock that I will look at buying today.