Weekly Wrap
Last Update: 28-Sep-07 16:36 ET
Despite lingering concerns about the economic outlook, the three major averages ended the week higher.
U.S. stocks started the period on a weak note, as a landmark strike at
General Motors (GM) raised concerns about the outlook for other industrial companies and the economy. On Monday, approximately 73,000 workers in the United Auto Workers union went on strike against the Detroit-based auto maker, as the two sides failed to reach an agreement over cuts in health care costs and union demands to keep U.S. production jobs.
Financial shares also weakened during Monday's session on news that
Deutsche Bank (DB), Germany's largest bank, may have to take a big write down of its leveraged loan commitments due to the meltdown in the sub-prime mortgage market.
The markets trended modestly higher on Tuesday, however, as disappointing earnings/sales updates from several notable companies and weak economic data were offset by strength in the Technology sector.
Fueling concerns about a slowdown in consumer spending, value-oriented retailer
Target Corp. (TGT) warned that September same-store sales would fall below its previous forecasts because of weak customer traffic. Meanwhile,
Lowe's Cos. (LOW), the nation's second largest home improvement chain, cut its full-year profit outlook due to unfavorable weather conditions in some parts of the U.S., and homebuilder
Lennar Corp. (LEN) reported a large third quarter loss and said it would be cutting more jobs in the fourth quarter amid persisting weakness in the housing market.
On the economic front, the Conference Board reported U.S consumer confidence fell to a nearly two-year low of 99.8 in September, while existing home sales tumbled 4.3% as housing conditions continued to deteriorate and weigh on overall economic activity.
Stocks again showed some resiliency on Wednesday, as a tentative deal between General Motors and the UAW to end a strike alleviated some concerns that a prolonged strike could hurt economic growth. It also offset a softer than expected read on August durable goods new orders, which declined 4.9%.
On Thursday investos were rattled by a bleak new home sales report, but the market still traded higher as a surprising drop in weekly initial claims and strength in the energy sector, which flowed from rising crude prices, provided support.
The new home sales report for August showed an 8.3% decline to an annualized rate of 795K, further underscoring the problems facing the housing sector. Economists had expected a drop of 5.2%. Meanwhile, initial claims for the week ended September 22 fell to 298K. That was well below the consensus estimate of 320K and normal recession levels.
Stocks reversed course on Friday – the last trading day of the third quarter – as investors digested a large batch of economic news and lingering concerns about the outlook for corporate earnings and the economy.
In terms of economic data, August personal consumption expenditures, which make up over 70% of GDP, rose a stronger than expected 0.6%. The core PCE deflator – a closely watched gauge of inflation – was up just 0.1% for the month. The year/year increase in the core PCE deflator is a low 1.8%.
Meanwhile, the September Chicago PMI survey of manufacturing conditions in that region rose to 54.2 from 53.8 for August. While that was only a modest increase, it suggests manufacturing conditions did not deteriorate in September.
August construction spending rose 0.2%, after gaining 0.5% in July, as weakness in residential construction continues to offset non-residential construction. The revision to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index during the month held fairly steady at 83.4 versus the prior read of 83.8.
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Richard Jahnke, Briefing.com