This Month in Stocks: 9/29 - 11/02/07

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One of the headlines on yahoo this AM is about stocks pulling back amid profit warnings. The sandbaggers are out in full effect. I think the Street analysts have assumed bad earnings for Q4 based on CEOs/CFOs talking about how earnings won't be so robust... then, they all will come in and report above the whisper numbers. Buying at the 9 day SMA on the S&P looks like the main support level reaching back to September 12th.
 
AP
Corporate Earnings Worry Wall Street
Saturday October 13, 6:05 am ET
By Joe Bel Bruno, AP Business Writer Wall Street Worrying That Companies' Third Quarter Earnings Might Be Disappointing

NEW YORK (AP) -- Inside major Wall Street firms and across their trading floors, concerns about corporate earnings are getting difficult to ignore.

America's blue chip companies -- big business stalwarts like Merrill Lynch & Co. and International Business Machines Corp. -- will release third-quarter results in the coming weeks. After a quarter marked by tightening credit conditions and concerns about a slowing economy, profit reports are expected to be the worst since 2001.

And early signs this past week seemed to confirm what many on Wall Street feared -- that results will show no growth from the year-ago period. Investors got a pair of profit warnings from International Paper Co. and Chevron Corp., while results from General Electric Co. and aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. failed to impress

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071013/wall_main.html
 
The Week Ahead

Last Update: 12-Oct-07 13:11 ET

Earnings season enters full-swing in the coming week. The market's focus will be turned to the barrage of announcements from some of the most widely held companies.

Additional attention will be turned to the week's economic reports. Remaining inflation concerns will be addressed with September's Capacity Utilization report and CPI data. Those reports will be released mid-week along with Housing Starts data and the Fed's Beige Book, a compilation of anecdotal and economic information on the various districts. Additional reports can be previewed on our Economic Calendar.

Numerous large-cap companies will be reporting their quarterly results in the week ahead. There are too many to list here, but Briefing.com's earnings calendar provides the full rundown. Some names you'll find there include Citigroup (C), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), Coca-Cola (KO), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Intel (INTC), Nokia (NOK), McDonald's (MCD), 3M (MM), and Caterpillar (CAT) are all due to make announcements.
________________________________________________________________
Monday, October 15:
  • Earnings: Citigroup (C), Eaton (ETN), Mattel (MAT), Genentech (DNA)
  • Economic Data: New York Empire State Index
  • Events: Hormel Analyst Meeting, ISV Analyst Meeting, FCEL 2007 Fuel Cell Seminar
  • Conferences: None
  • Fed Speakers: Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on outlook to Economic Club of New York dinner
Tuesday, October 16:
  • Earnings: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), State Street (STT), Supervalu (SVU), US Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo (WFC), Delta Air Lines (DAL), CSX Corp (CSX), Intel (INTC), Seagate Tech (STX), Yahoo! (YHOO)
  • Economic Data: August Net Foreign Purchases, September Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
  • Events: Hormel Analyst Meeting, Venoco Analyst Meeting
  • Conferences: Wachovia Consumer Growth Conference
  • Fed Speakers: None
Wednesday, October 17:
  • Earnings: Abbot Labs (ABT), Altria (MO), Coca-Cola (KO), JP Morgan Chase (JPM), United Tech (UTX), AMR Corp (AMR), Allstate (ALL), E*Trade (ETFC), Washington Mutual (WM)
  • Economic Data: September CPI, September Housing Starts and Building Permits, Weekly Crude Inventories, Fed's Beige Book
  • Events: Hormel Analyst Meeting, Venoco Analyst Meeting
  • Conferences: Wachovia Consumer Conference
  • Fed Speakers: Kansas City Fed President Hoenig in Oklahoma to speak about economy and policy
Thursday, October 18:
  • Earnings: American Standard(ASD), Bank of America (BAC), Eli Lilly (LLY), Hershey (HSY), Motorola (MOT), Nokia (NOK), Nucor (NUE), Pfizer (PFE), Southwest Air (LUV), Union Pacific (UNP), United Health (UNH), Wyeth (WYE), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Capital One (COF), IBM (IBM), Kinder Morgan (KMP), V.F. Corp (VFC)
  • Economic Data: Weekly Jobless Claims, September Leading Indicators, October Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
  • Events: Hormel Analyst Meeting
  • Conferences: None
  • Fed Speakers: Cleveland Fed President Pianalto speaks to Grantmakers in Ohio, Philadelphia Fed President Plosser speaks at St. Louis Fed Economic Conference
Friday, October 19:
  • Earnings: 3M(MMM), Caterpillar (CAT), Harley-Davidson (HOG), Honeywell (HON), Sunoco (SUN), McDonald's (MCD)
  • Economic Data: None
  • Events: None
  • Conferences: None
  • Fed Speakers: None
--Jeffrey Ham, Briefing.com

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...vestor&ArticleId=NS20071012131139LookingAhead
 
The numbers are "slightly better" than they reported on Oct. 1. Did they provide enough cushion to spark a small rally?

AP
Citigroup Suffers 57 Percent Profit Drop
Monday October 15, 8:09 am ET
By Madlen Read, AP Business Writer Citigroup Suffers 57 Percent Profit Drop in Turbulent Third Quarter

NEW YORK (AP) -- Citigroup Inc. said Monday its third-quarter profit dropped 57 percent after the biggest U.S. bank took a hit of more than $3 billion in mortgage-backed security losses, leveraged debt write-downs, and fixed-income trading losses.

Citigroup, which also boosted loan-loss provisions by $2.24 billion, said net income fell to $2.38 billion, or 47 cents per share, in the July to September period. That's down from $5.51 billion, or $1.10 a share, in the same period a year earlier. Revenue in the quarter rose 6 percent to $22.66 billion from $21.42 billion a year earlier.

The results included a $729 million pretax gain due to the sale of shares of Redecard SA, a company that signs up merchants in Brazil for Mastercard Inc.

Excluding the Redecard gain and acquisitions, Citigroup's revenue fell 3 percent to approximately $20.8 billion. That's below the revenue forecast by Thomson Financial analysts, who predicted earnings of 44 cents a share and revenue of $21.76 billion. Analyst forecasts don't typically include one-time gains.

The results were slightly better than Citigroup previously estimated. On Oct. 1, Citigroup Inc. had warned that its third-quarter profit would fall by about 60 percent. Citigroup's shares rose in pre-market trading, after closing at $47.87 Friday. It has fallen more than 6 percent since the start of July, and is down more than 12 percent year-to-date.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071015/earns_citigroup.html
 
Lets not forget: Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on outlook to Economic Club of New York dinner
 
Oil tops $85 for the first time

Crude prices continue recent climb on worries about declining oil inventories, Turkey-Iraq tension.

October 15 2007: 7:19 AM EDT


SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices kept rising Monday after closing at a new record in the previous session on worries that supplies are insufficient to meet coming winter demand and concerns over the conflict between Turkey and Kurds in northern Iraq.
Light, sweet crude for November delivery added $1.13 to $84.82 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, midday in Europe, rising to a new high of $85.19 before receding slightly.

The contract rose 61 cents to settle at a record $83.69 a barrel on Friday after rising as high as $84.05.
Brent crude futures rose $1.16 to $81.71 a barrel on the ICE futures exchange in London.

http://money.cnn.com/2007/10/15/markets/bc.oilprices.ap/index.htm
 
Look at the bright side of today's sell-off. CNBC gets to have another 14,000 party! :D
 
tsptalk said:
Look at the bright side of today's sell-off. CNBC gets to have another 14,000 party! :D
Click to expand...

I wish I could roll-back my birthday...then the celebrations wouldn't get soo stale. I think the expectations on earnings really crushed us today. I don't think AOL helped us any by announcing layoffs. :cool:
 
AP
Bernanke: Housing Woes to Slow Growth
Monday October 15, 7:22 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer Bernanke Says Housing Slump Will Probably Be a 'Significant Drag' on Economic Growth

WASHINGTON (AP) -- A deepening housing slump probably will be a "significant drag" on economic growth into next year and it will take time for Wall Street to fully recover from a painful credit crisis, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warned Monday.

Bernanke once again pledged to "act as needed" to help financial markets -- which have suffered through several months of turbulence -- function smoothly and to keep the economy and inflation on an even keel.

"Conditions in financial markets have shown some improvement since the worst of the storm in mid-August, but a full recovery of market functioning is likely to take time, and we may well see some setbacks," Bernanke said in a speech to the New York Economic Club. A copy of his remarks were made available in Washington.

It was Bernanke's most extensive assessment of the country's current economic situation since the August turmoil unhinged Wall Street.
The ultimate implications of the credit crunch on the broader economy remain uncertain, the Fed chief said.

Against that backdrop, Bernanke said the central bank will be closely watching the economy's vital signs. He didn't specifically commit to cutting rates again.

Economists have mixed opinions on whether the Fed will lower interest rates at their next meeting, Oct. 30-31.

To help cushion the economy from the ill effects of the credit crunch and housing slump, the Fed on Sept. 18 slashed a key short-term interest rate by one-half percentage point to 4.75 percent. It marked the first rate cut in more than four years. It also reflected the most aggressive action taken by the Fed to curb fallout from the credit crisis, which intensified in August.

Since that September meeting, the housing slump -- the worst in 16 years -- has gotten deeper, Bernanke said.

"The further contraction in housing is likely to be a significant drag on growth in the current quarter and through early next year," he said.
"However, it remains too early to assess the extent to which household and business spending will be affected by the weakness in housing and the tightening in credit conditions," he added.

Spending by businesses and individuals is an important ingredient to keeping the economic expansion -- which began in late 2001 -- from fizzling out.

Developments affecting the job market and income growth also will be watched closely. "The labor market has shown some signs of cooling, but these are quite tentative so far, and real income is still growing at a solid pace," Bernanke observed.

The benefits of a mostly sturdy employment climate have helped cushion some of the negative effects that the housing slump, weaker home values and a credit crunch have had on consumers.

Job creation rebounded in September, with employers boosting payrolls by 110,000, the most in four months. Wages grew solidly. The unemployment rate did creep up to 4.7 percent last month but that rate is still considered low by historical standards.

On the inflation front, Bernanke noted that the prices of crude oil and other commodities have been rising and that the value of the dollar has weakened. Oil prices galloped to a record high of $86.13 a barrel on Monday.

Bernanke said the Fed will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully. Yet, with the limited information seen since the central bank's September meeting, the inflation barometers "are consistent with continued moderate increases in consumer prices," he said.

The Fed's September rate reduction, Bernanke said, has helped ease "some of the pressure in financial markets, although considerable strains remain."

Still, the Fed's next move will be determined by what is best for the economy, Bernanke suggested. As he has said previously, it is not the Fed's job to shield investors from the consequences of bad financial decisions.

"The truth is that it (the Fed) can hardly insulate investors from risk, even if it wished to do so," Bernanke said. "Developments over the past few months reinforce this point. Those who made bad investment decisions lost money."

The worst carnage has affected investors in "subprime" mortgages -- those made to people with spotty credit or low incomes. Some lenders have been forced out of business and some investors in those and related mortgage-backed securities have taken a huge financial hit.

Overstretched homeowners with subprime loans got clobbered by the mortgage meltdown, too. Foreclosures and late payments have soared.

Weaker home prices seen during the housing bust have made it more difficult for some subprime borrowers to refinance out of loans that offered low "teaser" rates but jumped to much higher rates, resulting in payment shocks. Deliquencies on these mortgages are expected to rise further, Bernanke predicted.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071015/bernanke.html
 
I didn't get a warm fuzzy from Bernanke's speech/Q&A at all. I wonder how this will be digested by the market tonight and tomorrow. :confused: Ben sees slow growth this quarter and probably next and it's all good with him because it eases the inflation concerns.
 
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Here's one to make ya feel warm and fuzzy inside. :worried:

First Baby Boomer Files For Social Security Benefits

Monday , October 15, 2007
foxnews_story.gif


WASHINGTON —
Kathleen Casey-Kirschling filed for early retirement Monday, becoming the first baby boomer to start collecting Social Security.

Born one second after midnight in January 1946, the retired teacher leads the way for as many as 80 million individuals who will qualify for the retirement payout.

"I think I'm just lucky to be at the top of the boom. I'm just one of many many millions and am blessed to have been in this generation and really blessed and to take my Social Security now," Casey-Kirschling said during a ceremony held at the National Press Club featuring Social Security Commissioner Michael J. Astrue.

Casey-Kirschling said she supports anyone who wants to collect retirement benefits whenever he or she is eligible to take them. But many Washington officials and American workers are wondering if Social Security will be able to support them.

David Walker, the comptroller general of the Government Accountability Office, Congress' legislative arm, warned the Social Security system will soon have more recipients coming than it can afford to pay out.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,301997,00.html
 
Maria Bartiromo sez if oil don't come down I WILL impact consumer spending.....................DUH! She adds we are 2/3 consumer driven economy. She adds that demand for oil will not go down and there are new developments. Why did I sell USO? Retailers are starting to sweat because their profits are made between Thanksgiving and Christmas.

Stay tuned this will get volatile IMO.
 
Have no fear, the American Consumer has Canada! Canadians aren't going to stop shopping in the US as long as Loonie is par with the dollar. Just my opinion but come on CNBC.... Americans aren't going to stop shopping during Christmas. Look at all the people who bought I Phones for $500. Oil Up, Gas down. I've stopped trying to understand it all.
 
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