The Weather Thread

[Spaf]

Ernesto

Tropical storm Ernesto was in the central Caribbean heading towards Jamaica!

MSNBC Hurricane Tracker [Source: NOAA]​

Link: > > http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7845030​

 

[Dave M]

How To Ruin A Nice Long Weekend

"Unless you hear from me again, come in tomorrow at 400 PM." Shoot. The 500 PM advisory is going to bring a Cat 2 to Dry Tortugas so we will go to staffing.

Oil-wise it will not be good, not because of any real threat but the perceived threat.

Dave

 

[The_Technician]

Re: How To Ruin A Nice Long Weekend

"Unless you hear from me again, come in tomorrow at 400 PM." Shoot. The 500 PM advisory is going to bring a Cat 2 to Dry Tortugas so we will go to staffing.

Oil-wise it will not be good, not because of any real threat but the perceived threat.

Dave

Dave, see if it has a trend to move north, it sure looks like its changing its path.....to me it seems unstable ....like all those systems of late in the Gulf, they were early formers and then broke up after a day or so.....

 

[Dave M]

Unstable -- That's The Problem

The best we can do is watch and see.

Monday it flared up, Monday evening it flared down. That signals an orographic boost from the mountains of Haiti intercepting the deep onshore flow, aided by the sun on the south-facing slopes. By 1100 PM it was weaker but the Center maintained it for continuity.

They're counting on a jog north and to us it looked like a lot of dry air was draining in from the north. That made us think that the weakening we analyzed was backed by solid physics, and that the Center necessarily would be making an adjustment in the morning if it held up.

This will be good news for the oil people but bad news for the metro, now due for a thorough soaking as another diurnal kicker exists up there in heating.

So we watch and see. If the official forecast holds up, I will be walking to work in my bathing suit again on Tuesday, heh

Dave

 

[The_Technician]

Dave, I swear that thing is about to go towards the NNE....highly unusual movement even if it is for a short period....but I still think its going to the east side of Florida eventually.....seems rather difficult for it to move west.....

 

[Dave M]

And Look!

The 11 AM track takes it 50 miles farther east -- to Islamorada and not KW -- so I will be biking in tomorrow as usual, with a tail-wind. Yes, it looks like the metro is in for it along with the extreme upper keys.

Also see how it is blossoming on the south coast of Cuba due to the meso-scale effects. Watch the skies over south Florida come to life tomorrow and Wednesday. No doubt the water managers have opened the sluice-gates in anticipation. Twenty-five percent of our annual average rain comes from tropical systems. These storms are essential to the ecology here; rain in the Everglades is always a good thing, and it will flush hypersaline Florida Bay by pulling old water out toward the Gulf while simultaneously pushing new water in from the Atlantic.

I bought a little gas for my Coleman yesterday, and the guy in front of me filled his monster SUV as I waited...and waited...and waited. When he left I could see how much he had pumped: $135. My god. I've had more than one car where my monthly payment was less than that.

Dave

 

[The_Technician]

Gee wize, take a look at the spiral forming in the Yucatan hole......collapsing quickly into a tighter spiral.....man there seems to be a lot of action going on....still, you wonder if any of this will actually stay together....Ernesto just seems to have found a spot to dieout.....

 

[Dave M]

Oh The Humidity

Moisture is on the rise as Ernesto gropes its way north. For a brief period it will have inflow from all directions, having broken free of nearby landmasses, so it will soon take on a more regular appearance. Meanwhile my town is quiet with no visitors and schools closed, etc.

In any case we see another storm struggling to survive this year. Last year everything blew up on us; this year, nada. Judging from the pre-season forecasts, despite our advances, tropical weather remains cloaked in mystery.

Tech, again you have neglected the 3rd dimension. You are not learning. A swirl at 30,000 feet cannot readily communicate its rotation to the surface if there are intervening stable layers, which there always are in the tropical atmosphere -- otherwise it would be raining all the time down here. With practice, you can distinguish low-level cloud motions from those at higher-level. They rarely coincide.

Dave

 

[vic]

Dave, you all do a hell of a job with hurricanes. It is true we do need them to transfer heat and water and recyle, I am very glad Ernesto took it easy on us.
I don't know why it did nit intensify when it was over all that warm water, but every one in South Florida is glad.

 

[Dave M]

Adios Ernesto

Ernesto made landfall at the Islamorada Sandbar last night. After that it behaved erratically, heh. No sustained winds greater than 35 mph, no tornadoes, six inches of rain on Key Largo.

It has disrupted aviation operations and generated a lot of overtime in the E-M community. The Trade has suffered but then, it is August in south Florida -- who in their right mind comes down here now for a vacation? It is the slowest week of the year.

Because I started my work week on Sunday instead of Tuesday, I get another try at a week-long weekend starting today. And look! While I was busy, the market climbed. Life is good.

Dave

 

[vic]

Luckily no damage to the sandbar heh

 

[The_Technician]

Dave, I swear that thing is about to go towards the NNE....highly unusual movement even if it is for a short period....but I still think its going to the east side of Florida eventually.....seems rather difficult for it to move west.....

It still seems its going to get there, maybe by the time it hits Georgia......:nuts:

 

[Griffin]

Ernesto is going to bring badly needed rain to the mid-atlantic. Despite a few days of rain already, we could use more. If nothing else, maybe it will give my grass a chance to hold it's own against the crab grass and Cicada Killer wasps.

 

[Spaf]

Hurricane John​

MSNBC
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7845030​

 

[grasshopper]

First it was Debby than Ernesto now its John. I am leaving on Sat for Cancun and am hoping for fair weather at the best... Wish me luck.

 

[grandma]

Hurricane John​

MSNBC

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7845030​

Has there ever been a hurricane that went on up the coast into SanDiego & points north?

 

[TiCKed]

Has there ever been a hurricane that went on up the coast into SanDiego & points north?

Been in L.A. for 20 years.....Remember ONCE getting heavy rain from a Pacific depression....but never a full fledged hurricane.

(We have enough problems with earthquakes, mudslides, wildfires, riots, etc., etc., etc......)

 

[Letrgro]

Been in L.A. for 20 years.....Remember ONCE getting heavy rain from a Pacific depression....but never a full fledged hurricane.

(We have enough problems with earthquakes, mudslides, wildfires, riots, etc., etc., etc......)

There have been two tropical systems recorded in SoCal, well before storms were given names. A tropical storm came onshore near Long Beach in 1939. It was because of this storm that a weather bureau forecast office was installed in LA in 1940. A Cat1 hurricane impacted San Diego back in 1858. Here's a pdf from an AMS pubilcation if you want to read about it http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/chenowethlandsea.pdf

Hope that helps grandma.

 

[The_Technician]

First we have Florence, it dissipated, then Gordon ramps up and is not a threat...then take a look at the new boy on the block forming off Africa...I wonder how this muscle boy will time with the weather fronts over the US in the upcoming week....

 

[nnuut]

We probably and I say probably don't have much of a chance of hurricanes hitting the Gulf states as long as EL Nino's winds (west to east) are prominent. Blowing the tops off of the storms in the tropics and pushing storms coming from Africa into the Atlantic. :notrust: