Strong Open, Weak Close

Well, the G-20 meeting this weekend failed to find a way to support the dollar on the global stage. That seemed to have set the tone for trading as the dollar started out very weak in overnight trade, and as we've seen the market tends to rally on a weak dollar.

On the data front, existing home sales for September were up an astonishing 10% to an annualized rate of 4.53 million units, which was well above estimates.

What was notable about the rally in the early going was that the S&P got as high as 1196.14 before turning back. That 1200 level may prove highly resistant, but I suspect it'll be tested again.

I noticed treasuries started out strong this morning, but faded later in the day. That was largely attributed to the results of a $10 billion auction of 5-year TIPS. The resulting yield of that auction was an incredible -0.55%. Notice the minus sign on that number as this is a first time that has ever happened.

So we opened strong, but finished the day on a weak close. But weak or not it was another up day for the broader market.

Here's today's charts:

$NAMO.jpg

Back to buys for NAMO and NYMO. Notice though that the 6 day EMA is just north of neutral.

$NAHL.jpg

Back to buys for NAHL and NYHL too.

$TRIN.jpg

Two buys for TRIN and TRINQ.

$BPCOMPQ.jpg

BPCOMPQ continues to tracker just above that upper bollinger band. It also remains on a buy.

So all 7 signals are flashing buys, which keeps the system on a buy. But the signals are also within striking distance of a sell signal should this market turn hard. I am not expecting that to happen just yet, but it should be understood that it won't take a great deal of selling pressure to flip this system to a sell.

Talk of potential selling aside, the market can also chop higher as we get closer to election day and the next FOMC meeting. What's notable about this rally too is that sentiment is not where one might expect it to be after such a long run to the upside. Caution is still very much in the wind among traders and investors so it's entirely possible another significant leg up could materialize in the next couple of weeks.
 
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