A few things I see here at a quick glance.
Bull: Bull flag breakout, possible reverse H&S pattern forming, OEX traders more bullish today than two weeks ago.
Bear: Overbought on low volume, resistance at the reverse H&S neckline, VIX back below 20 (sell territory), S&P at neckline resistance at 1115 which would be a good spot for a right shoulder top.
Risk outweighs the reward here IMO. I do not think this correction is over. I still have 20% invested in equities and I'm not sure what I'm going to do with it from here, but I kept 20% in because I'm not a fortune teller. Who knows, we could rocket off to 1300 from here, but I doubt it.
LT, it's really troubling for someone my age to look at the deficits we face and the unsustainable lifestyles our nation continues to keep alive in fear of a class based revolution. It's time for our leaders to increase the retirement age a few ticks. Let's do it now and stop pretending it isn't so inevitable. Seriously, I found myself laughing at at TV commercial today about it being 'a good time to buy a home'. Also, since before the 2008 crash it's been nonstop commercials about how good of a time it's been to buy a car.
The whole thing is a laughing stock. In a service based economy, if we stop buying, we stop growing. It's that simple. Look at the jobs people have and then look at what car they drive and what kind of cellphone they have. It's probably a GMC Yukon and an iPhone. An iPhone.... Who needs one and who can afford one? $100 a month for a phone- forget about it. That's $1,200 a year people are spending to fart around with 'apps' while waiting in line to buy their groceries.
As bearish as I've become since Jan 2010, I assure you it's not because of my outlook on the economy or the lessons not learned by Americans. Looking at a multitude of signals, all I see are rallies based off the morning gap up in futures with weak participation. Buying now would not be a contrarian decision but instead I like to think that resisting the urge to participate is the contrarian move here. The complacency with sovereign debt defaults looming, a major drop in the VIX, a rising dollar, and treasury yields that refuse to go any higher are all telling us something that one does not need a technical background to understand.
Some 'obvious' things I'm watching here:
1. The Euro is going lower
2. CMBS are going to crash the market
3. Treasury yields are going higher
It's important not to let emotions get in the way though, and with that, I'll be watching the indicators for my next move but I'll try not to let any bias influence my decisions.
Bull: Bull flag breakout, possible reverse H&S pattern forming, OEX traders more bullish today than two weeks ago.
Bear: Overbought on low volume, resistance at the reverse H&S neckline, VIX back below 20 (sell territory), S&P at neckline resistance at 1115 which would be a good spot for a right shoulder top.
Risk outweighs the reward here IMO. I do not think this correction is over. I still have 20% invested in equities and I'm not sure what I'm going to do with it from here, but I kept 20% in because I'm not a fortune teller. Who knows, we could rocket off to 1300 from here, but I doubt it.
LT, it's really troubling for someone my age to look at the deficits we face and the unsustainable lifestyles our nation continues to keep alive in fear of a class based revolution. It's time for our leaders to increase the retirement age a few ticks. Let's do it now and stop pretending it isn't so inevitable. Seriously, I found myself laughing at at TV commercial today about it being 'a good time to buy a home'. Also, since before the 2008 crash it's been nonstop commercials about how good of a time it's been to buy a car.
The whole thing is a laughing stock. In a service based economy, if we stop buying, we stop growing. It's that simple. Look at the jobs people have and then look at what car they drive and what kind of cellphone they have. It's probably a GMC Yukon and an iPhone. An iPhone.... Who needs one and who can afford one? $100 a month for a phone- forget about it. That's $1,200 a year people are spending to fart around with 'apps' while waiting in line to buy their groceries.
As bearish as I've become since Jan 2010, I assure you it's not because of my outlook on the economy or the lessons not learned by Americans. Looking at a multitude of signals, all I see are rallies based off the morning gap up in futures with weak participation. Buying now would not be a contrarian decision but instead I like to think that resisting the urge to participate is the contrarian move here. The complacency with sovereign debt defaults looming, a major drop in the VIX, a rising dollar, and treasury yields that refuse to go any higher are all telling us something that one does not need a technical background to understand.
Some 'obvious' things I'm watching here:
1. The Euro is going lower
2. CMBS are going to crash the market
3. Treasury yields are going higher
It's important not to let emotions get in the way though, and with that, I'll be watching the indicators for my next move but I'll try not to let any bias influence my decisions.
