08/08/25
Stocks were mixed on Thursday and the late July / early August pullback consolidation continues. The Dow has been down 7 of the last 9 days, but without much damage being done. The charts do have some issues but the bears have been unable to capitalize despite seasonality being on their side and a market that is vulnerable to an overbought pullback. The C and S-funds were down slightly on the day while the I-fund stole the show on Thursday with a healthy gain.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
It was a mixed, neutral kind of day but once again the internal numbers were modestly negative with more stocks down than up on the day, and the Nasdaq, one of the few indices that closed positive, surprising saw 137 new 52-week lows yesterday.
Despite some unhealthy internal numbers, the indices continue to hang around the all-time highs. The S&P 500 (C-fund) is playing a game at this current level where it was retracing last Thursday's negative outside reversal day, while not quite being able to close above some resistance yesterday, and and it does look a little vulnerable here. Despite being down 6 of the last 8 trading days, it's tough to count the bulls out as they refuse to relent.
Yields have been flat in recent days - ever since the jobs report sell off. This is good. Yields holding steady makes for more certainty for investors. The problem is that support is just below the current level and there is a lot of room on the upside if this wants to continue to trade in the 4.1% to 4.6% range. If this moves up to 4.5% or higher in the short-term, the stock market may have a difficult time advancing.
The Transportation Index made one of those negative outside reversal days, failing at the 200 and 50-day moving averages. This isn't a great look for the market leader.
It was quiet yesterday and not a whole lot has changed, but the sideways action is helping. It helps take the indices off extreme levels without giving up too much, but the charts are showing some concerns with reversals and moves below key support areas, so I don't think it's time yet to be overly aggressive with stocks.
The futures were up late Thursday night, but that hasn't always translated into a positive day for stocks lately.
The DWCPF / S-fund closed off its intraday lows for five straight days, which seems like it should be bullish, and may be, but that old broken support continues to hold as resistance. In the process it has made a lower high (so far) and that could be a head and shoulders forming, which may be a bearish tell.
ACWX (I-fund) took off yesterday as the move off the lows has been a runaway rally. I didn't initially trust the rally but now I'd have to chase it to buy into it and I'm not sure about doing that. There is some resistance coming up near 62.25 and there are a bunch of open gaps below that could lure it back down.
The dollar is behaving but it could stop going down if it fills that open gap near 27.20.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down slightly after a negative reversal day, but it held at the old resistance line at the top of that blue channel, which is now trying to hold on as support.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were mixed on Thursday and the late July / early August pullback consolidation continues. The Dow has been down 7 of the last 9 days, but without much damage being done. The charts do have some issues but the bears have been unable to capitalize despite seasonality being on their side and a market that is vulnerable to an overbought pullback. The C and S-funds were down slightly on the day while the I-fund stole the show on Thursday with a healthy gain.
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
It was a mixed, neutral kind of day but once again the internal numbers were modestly negative with more stocks down than up on the day, and the Nasdaq, one of the few indices that closed positive, surprising saw 137 new 52-week lows yesterday.
Despite some unhealthy internal numbers, the indices continue to hang around the all-time highs. The S&P 500 (C-fund) is playing a game at this current level where it was retracing last Thursday's negative outside reversal day, while not quite being able to close above some resistance yesterday, and and it does look a little vulnerable here. Despite being down 6 of the last 8 trading days, it's tough to count the bulls out as they refuse to relent.
Yields have been flat in recent days - ever since the jobs report sell off. This is good. Yields holding steady makes for more certainty for investors. The problem is that support is just below the current level and there is a lot of room on the upside if this wants to continue to trade in the 4.1% to 4.6% range. If this moves up to 4.5% or higher in the short-term, the stock market may have a difficult time advancing.
The Transportation Index made one of those negative outside reversal days, failing at the 200 and 50-day moving averages. This isn't a great look for the market leader.
It was quiet yesterday and not a whole lot has changed, but the sideways action is helping. It helps take the indices off extreme levels without giving up too much, but the charts are showing some concerns with reversals and moves below key support areas, so I don't think it's time yet to be overly aggressive with stocks.
The futures were up late Thursday night, but that hasn't always translated into a positive day for stocks lately.
The DWCPF / S-fund closed off its intraday lows for five straight days, which seems like it should be bullish, and may be, but that old broken support continues to hold as resistance. In the process it has made a lower high (so far) and that could be a head and shoulders forming, which may be a bearish tell.
ACWX (I-fund) took off yesterday as the move off the lows has been a runaway rally. I didn't initially trust the rally but now I'd have to chase it to buy into it and I'm not sure about doing that. There is some resistance coming up near 62.25 and there are a bunch of open gaps below that could lure it back down.
The dollar is behaving but it could stop going down if it fills that open gap near 27.20.
BND (bonds / F-fund) was down slightly after a negative reversal day, but it held at the old resistance line at the top of that blue channel, which is now trying to hold on as support.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
