09/03/25
The first trading day in September started very similarly to the first trading day in August. Both months started with a hefty gap down open. In August, that first day decline turned out to be the low for the month. Can we expect the same out of September, or will that thinking get us trapped? Yields and the dollar were up as the tariff headlines are back. Positive news for Google after the bell yesterday had the futures rebounding further.
If the bulls were looking for a reason to buy this modest dip already, they may have gotten it, but we'll see how this plays out today. There were some cracks made in the charts, but most of the indices closed near the highs of the day as the gaps opened at Tuesday's open attempted to get filled already.
The bears are clamoring for some kind of pullback, whether looking to buy lower, or expecting the economy to fall apart for whatever reason, but the stock market isn't cooperating. Every setback has been getting bought and just like the start of August, September may have also started by throwing us a curve ball.
It's uncanny when we look at the start of the prior two months. The S&P 500 / C-fund gapped down on the first trading day in September, just like in August. The positive reversal during the day coupled with the Google news, which we'll talk about below, makes it look like September may bounce back just like August did on day two of trading, filling that gap.
The PMO indicator did move lower with yesterday's losses but the late rally and bullish after hours, may help to try to turn that indicator up again. It has been trending lower for a couple of months while stocks rallied, and that's usually a bearish sign, but it hasn't led to bearish action yet.
After the bell yesterday a judge released a ruling on Google saying they are allowed to keep the Chrome browser, but they must share search data as the judge ruled they hold an illegal monopoly on internet search. Google said they will appeal, which delays and penalties, despite avoiding the worst case scenarios. The judge also ruled that Google was "not required to cease payments to Apple", and all that means to me is that both Google and Apple were trading up sharply after hours yesterday and that could give big tech a boost today.
All that said, if the stock market rallies because one company may be avoiding a worse case scenario penalty, it would be a bullish situation because other companies have nothing to do with that. My guess is it should quickly be forgotten about by the broader market, but Google's stock may do well. If it does change the momentum back up for stocks, it's probably because that was what the market was going to try to do anyway. Whether or not the positive reversal sticks or fails today, could tell us a lot about the state of the stock market in the short term.
The chart of the Nasdaq 100 - the biggest tech stocks, fell below key support yesterday, but it did find support and bounce at the 50-day EMA, which may try to save it. The bearish head and shoulders pattern may also present a problem and that 23,000 neckline area will be a key level of support that must hold.
Yields were up yesterday with the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) moving above 4.3% again, but only temporarily as it stalled at resistance and closed at 4.28%. The 30-year Treasury ($TYX) has been rising a little more rapidly.
Longer term yields have been moving up globally with some Asian and European yields hitting multi-year highs, but the ruling on the reciprocal tariffs reversed that with overseas longer-term yields falling yesterday while the US 30-year went up.
And what are we to make of this? Gold was up more than 2% yesterday to a new all time high. It is up 35% this year compared to 9% for the S&P 500, and 18% for bitcoin. Why is the safety trade of gold quietly making new highs? The weakening dollar is a reason for gold to go higher, but the dollar was up yesterday. Is this some kind of warning?
The August jobs report will come out on Friday and estimates are looking for 63K to 78K jobs being added. Low expectations.
Admin Notes:
* The final August AutoTracker numbers are in. Congratulation to Pickles who had the highest return in the month with a gain of 5.75%. You can find all of the August winners posted here, and the final monthly standings here. The winners have been sent a message via the forum (and that should have sent an email to the address on file in the forum.)
* Also, it's time for the annual NFL Survivor Contest! Please go here for details: The deadline to sign up is the kick off of the first game on Sunday.
The DWCPF / S-fund opened sharply lower on Tuesday, but it battled back closing near its highs of the day, but it will take a gain today to remain above the support line it broke through yesterday.
ACWX (I-fund) played along with the US stock funds with a moderate loss, but a close well off the lows. Meanwhile, the influential dollar continues to look for direction.
BND (bonds / F-fund) fell yesterday to push it back into the bull flag that it broke above last week. It's also back within the red channel, or wedge, so this isn't a great look.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The first trading day in September started very similarly to the first trading day in August. Both months started with a hefty gap down open. In August, that first day decline turned out to be the low for the month. Can we expect the same out of September, or will that thinking get us trapped? Yields and the dollar were up as the tariff headlines are back. Positive news for Google after the bell yesterday had the futures rebounding further.
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If the bulls were looking for a reason to buy this modest dip already, they may have gotten it, but we'll see how this plays out today. There were some cracks made in the charts, but most of the indices closed near the highs of the day as the gaps opened at Tuesday's open attempted to get filled already.
The bears are clamoring for some kind of pullback, whether looking to buy lower, or expecting the economy to fall apart for whatever reason, but the stock market isn't cooperating. Every setback has been getting bought and just like the start of August, September may have also started by throwing us a curve ball.
It's uncanny when we look at the start of the prior two months. The S&P 500 / C-fund gapped down on the first trading day in September, just like in August. The positive reversal during the day coupled with the Google news, which we'll talk about below, makes it look like September may bounce back just like August did on day two of trading, filling that gap.
The PMO indicator did move lower with yesterday's losses but the late rally and bullish after hours, may help to try to turn that indicator up again. It has been trending lower for a couple of months while stocks rallied, and that's usually a bearish sign, but it hasn't led to bearish action yet.
After the bell yesterday a judge released a ruling on Google saying they are allowed to keep the Chrome browser, but they must share search data as the judge ruled they hold an illegal monopoly on internet search. Google said they will appeal, which delays and penalties, despite avoiding the worst case scenarios. The judge also ruled that Google was "not required to cease payments to Apple", and all that means to me is that both Google and Apple were trading up sharply after hours yesterday and that could give big tech a boost today.
All that said, if the stock market rallies because one company may be avoiding a worse case scenario penalty, it would be a bullish situation because other companies have nothing to do with that. My guess is it should quickly be forgotten about by the broader market, but Google's stock may do well. If it does change the momentum back up for stocks, it's probably because that was what the market was going to try to do anyway. Whether or not the positive reversal sticks or fails today, could tell us a lot about the state of the stock market in the short term.
The chart of the Nasdaq 100 - the biggest tech stocks, fell below key support yesterday, but it did find support and bounce at the 50-day EMA, which may try to save it. The bearish head and shoulders pattern may also present a problem and that 23,000 neckline area will be a key level of support that must hold.
Yields were up yesterday with the 10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX) moving above 4.3% again, but only temporarily as it stalled at resistance and closed at 4.28%. The 30-year Treasury ($TYX) has been rising a little more rapidly.
Longer term yields have been moving up globally with some Asian and European yields hitting multi-year highs, but the ruling on the reciprocal tariffs reversed that with overseas longer-term yields falling yesterday while the US 30-year went up.
And what are we to make of this? Gold was up more than 2% yesterday to a new all time high. It is up 35% this year compared to 9% for the S&P 500, and 18% for bitcoin. Why is the safety trade of gold quietly making new highs? The weakening dollar is a reason for gold to go higher, but the dollar was up yesterday. Is this some kind of warning?
The August jobs report will come out on Friday and estimates are looking for 63K to 78K jobs being added. Low expectations.
Admin Notes:
* The final August AutoTracker numbers are in. Congratulation to Pickles who had the highest return in the month with a gain of 5.75%. You can find all of the August winners posted here, and the final monthly standings here. The winners have been sent a message via the forum (and that should have sent an email to the address on file in the forum.)
* Also, it's time for the annual NFL Survivor Contest! Please go here for details: The deadline to sign up is the kick off of the first game on Sunday.
The DWCPF / S-fund opened sharply lower on Tuesday, but it battled back closing near its highs of the day, but it will take a gain today to remain above the support line it broke through yesterday.
ACWX (I-fund) played along with the US stock funds with a moderate loss, but a close well off the lows. Meanwhile, the influential dollar continues to look for direction.
BND (bonds / F-fund) fell yesterday to push it back into the bull flag that it broke above last week. It's also back within the red channel, or wedge, so this isn't a great look.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
