XOM broke out from a triangle pattern a while back (bullish for DJIA), but I've felt that the transports have been propped up by Warren Buffet the past few years- and most recently with the purchase of BNI (which the TRAN has yet to follow through on).
Somebody is selling oil hard at $80 and it's probably due to:
Quote:
<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> OPEC president is ‘happy’ with oil in $75-$78 range </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=208114
The printing presses worldwide continue to run at full steam, just look at the demand from the past few treasury auctions. The US gets all the attention but are rates in any country near 'normal'. Quote:
<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> The Fed has been buying literally 90% of all of the new issue in Treasuries and MBS this year. </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...ll-Around.html
Therefore: With OPEC willing to intervene in the oil market to keep it in the 75-80 range, the dollars in the system will need to find alternative playgrounds. Where are they going? The usual suspects- Gold, Copper, Coal, Rubber, Steel, Housing.... (The housing market in China is on fire). This hoarding in turn should continue to move profits higher for the producers of these hard items. The only thing is, some day we're going to look back and say, "What are we going to do with all of this stuff?" China is not the answer IMO, but we might as well ride the wave while it's here.
Quote:
<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> 'If China does not exit its stimulus policy ... property prices and the market may go out of control,' </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009...fx7149248.html
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I don't see any reason to be bearish until one or more of the following happens:
1. US Fed actually raises rates
2. We see a sustained rally in the dollar
3. Dow Theory or the charts signal a major technical breakdown in US Equities
4. SSEC fails to make a new high
Somebody is selling oil hard at $80 and it's probably due to:
Quote:
<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> OPEC president is ‘happy’ with oil in $75-$78 range </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=208114
The printing presses worldwide continue to run at full steam, just look at the demand from the past few treasury auctions. The US gets all the attention but are rates in any country near 'normal'. Quote:
<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> The Fed has been buying literally 90% of all of the new issue in Treasuries and MBS this year. </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
http://market-ticker.denninger.net/a...ll-Around.html
Therefore: With OPEC willing to intervene in the oil market to keep it in the 75-80 range, the dollars in the system will need to find alternative playgrounds. Where are they going? The usual suspects- Gold, Copper, Coal, Rubber, Steel, Housing.... (The housing market in China is on fire). This hoarding in turn should continue to move profits higher for the producers of these hard items. The only thing is, some day we're going to look back and say, "What are we going to do with all of this stuff?" China is not the answer IMO, but we might as well ride the wave while it's here.
Quote:
<table border="0" cellpadding="6" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <tbody><tr> <td class="alt2" style="border: 1px inset ;"> 'If China does not exit its stimulus policy ... property prices and the market may go out of control,' </td> </tr> </tbody></table>
http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009...fx7149248.html
------
I don't see any reason to be bearish until one or more of the following happens:
1. US Fed actually raises rates
2. We see a sustained rally in the dollar
3. Dow Theory or the charts signal a major technical breakdown in US Equities
4. SSEC fails to make a new high
