Steel_Magnolia's Account Talk

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A big thank you to BC, Uptrend and the others who stopped by here and the clubhouse on the Beltway to make the veterans appreciation dinner a success! It was fun. We'll have to do it again next year! :)

Maggie
 
My TSP account is 100% in equities and the recent pullback has made me nervous. I've spent the weekend studying my charts and reading information from sources I trust. And I've decided to hold the line. Here's why:

Zacks November 13 “Profit From the Pros” video says we will continue to pull back a bit after this 10 week straight run-up, but that the primary trend is still bullish. This is because (1) the corporate earnings picture looks very good, (2) the positive valuation of stocks versus other items such as bonds, (3) the 30 year bond rally is coming to an end and the money is flowing back into stocks, and (4) the individual investor is coming back into the stock market. Zacks experts say that the employment picture is starting to become stronger. And as all these things come together the market is poised for a run up of 10% to 20% over the next 12 months. Because of all these things (corporate earnings and income, employment picture, etc.), if people didn’t buy this latest pullback Zacks says you don’t need to wait for another pullback to buy.

Market Rewind on the ETF Prophet site has a chart breakout of technical information on the various main ETFs, with our C, S, and I Fund analogs (SPY, IWM and EFA) among them. Among the various interesting facts listed is the risk/reward percentage. It shows SPY, IWM and EFA to be at 142%, 128% and 95% respectively.

Today’s Fibtimer newsletter points out that the SPX has a bullish head and shoulders pattern on both daily and weekly charts and is predicting the next high will be 1305.

It is also comforting to note that on SPY, IWM and EFA charts, we are above both the 50 DMA and the 200 DMA, and the 50 is above the 200 and rising.

So-o-o-o-o taking all of that into account, I'm standing pat. And hoping that it's not a long and painful month until we get to the Santa Claus rally!

Luck to all of us!

Maggie
 
So, gang, I read Tom's excellent analysis this morning. And last night Coolhand sent me something that reminded me forceably about the recent Seven Sentinals sell signal.

Do I think that this is a market reversal to a bear market? No, I think we're still in a bull market in the intermediate timeframe. But all of yesterday's brave words aside, I've decided that it would be irresponsible to go through this correction 100% invested. You know. Retired. Seed corn. Etc.

So I'm pulling some back into cash. I'm using my second IFT to move to 40% G, 15% C, 30% S and 15% I Fund.

That is still more exposed than I usually am. I can feel the breeze whistling through my drawers as we speak! :toung:

Maggie
 
From ETF Prophet's Market Rewind column earlier this month:

A most analogous periods run suggests an S&P 500 value of approximately 1,250 by year-end, plus-or-minus roughly 40 points seven weeks out. The best fit historical epochs occurred in the mid-1990′s with the runner up, interestingly enough, being March 2009. Amazing how that puts us well back into the initial range of analyst 2010 year-end predictions — who would have guessed that back in the dog days of summer?
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And there are some blueberry banana cream pies in the fridge. Why don't you take a slice before you leave? Yeah, I know it sounds a little weird, but it's one of my favorites! I made a practice run for Thanksgiving, flaky pie crust, a layer of blueberry pie filling, a layer of banana cream pudding mixed with whipped cream cheese, sliced bananas, then topped with real whipped cream. Yum! But don't think about the calories!

Maggie
 
Steel_Magnolia said:
That is still more exposed than I usually am. I can feel the breeze whistling through my drawers as we speak! :toung:
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I am me - and whenever I express anything I hope you can appreciate a deeper reflection of my true being and the personality that makes me who and what I am. On days as you described you'll find I'm a treasure to have on your lap. By simply taking to me you'll feel me relax and the warmth from my fur will feel delightful and welcoming. When you touch me it's even better -- as you can feel the motor my purring makes. So enjoy the moment - please - cuz when I decide to leave the last thing you want to do is try to hold me back. It's in my blood -- it's simply the way I am -- I will enjoy being in your lap for a moment but when that moment's up then I jump down and move on - to stretch and explore and hunt and bask in the sun.

Baby boots and kit kit kitten scoots
 
So gang, I re-e-eally don't like what's happening with the I Fund. And with the trouble in Ireland and possibly in Portugal, I'm pulling my 15% out of I Fund and putting it into G.

At COB today I'll be 55% G, 15% C and 30% S.

Maggie
 
My favorite article from today's reading:

We have always believed in allocating across many asset classes. This would include managed futures, commodities, and, of course we manage The Currency Strategies Fund (FOREX) to give exposure to currencies. In the equity market, there are also quasi-asset classes such as master limited partnerships, preferred securities, real estate, and so on. One ETF that we use that does a good job of pulling these together is the Guggenheim Multi-Asset Income ETF (CVY). CVY is based on the Zacks Multi-Asset Income Index.
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http://seekingalpha.com/article/237...set-diversity-dividends?source=hp_wc&wc_num=3
 
Favorite article from this morning's reading:

...Now the question is: does this bounce have legs?

Yes, if economic readings keep coming in like today. And yes, if corporate earnings keep beating expectations. (Meaning the quality 1-2 punch that got us to Dow 11,000 in the first place).

Unfortunately the answer is no, if a larger European country catches the Greek/Irish flu. And no, if QE2 doesn’t stave off deflation. And no, if the 2nd round of bank stress tests are being done because our nation’s banks are in trouble (again).

The above dichotomy is exactly the problem we are facing as investors....
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http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/43519/Will+the+Bounce+Last?+Plus+5+Stocks+to+Buy
 
Richard Rhodes (The Rhodes Report) from this week's ChartWatchers Newsletter at Chartwatchers.com says

...We view the ratio between stocks and bonds as a barometer for the "risk-on" or "risk-off" trade. Therefore, the recent upward movement in the ratio has our attention, and so too should it have our readers as it on the precipice of breaking out into a full-fledged "risk-on" bull market in stocks vs. bonds as the 170-week moving average looks to be violated to the upside given 40-week stochastic is turning higher in bullish fashion. This simply means that stocks shall gain at the expense of bonds, and more importantly - given the bond market has harbored the "risk-off" crowd, they will be forced into becoming buyers of stocks as they shall not want to see capital losses associated with falling bond prices/rising yields....
Click to expand...
Emphasis on the above quote was added.

Maggie
 
I forgot about the retirement money the wife and I have on the line. My wife is still working and contributing to her FRS defined contribution plan - as a family unit we are loaded up and waiting the arrival of the Grand Trunk. I even put my daughter into a Roth 401K plan that is aggressive. So we are all hoofers.
 
Oooh Maggie -- you had me laughing in delight :p

Thank you !!!


Oh my gosh --- no ---- the first one is definately NOT you

It looks like a 'guy'


Second one I can't tell --- but I think the one you have is great and when I got my 'fish' I noticed a lot of obvious Ladies -- that would fit you pretty good.


Well -- I agree -- it's time to kick back and enjoy the country
 
When it comes to NBA basketball I've always said that my two favorite teams are the Utah Jazz and whoever is playing the LA Lakers. Well, last night I got a twofer when my Jazz beat the Lakers! Woohoo! DWill for Governor!
 
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